Russian invasion of Ukraine

[fulabeer]

Sanctions were always going to be a slow and long term plan. They gradually eat away at Putin's war chest.
He planned for the invasion, and had what he thought was enough cash to see it through.

So yes, in the short term, day to day things will continue as normal.
However, the longer this goes on, the harder it will be to sustain the economy. Even worse for them, the long term affects will be devastating. It could take decades for the Russian economy to pick up. Longer if reparations have to be paid. (to lift sanctions)

Every trick in the book is probably going on to make things seem ok. But like all illusions, it will all come crashing down when the illusion cannot be sustained.
I feel this day is nearing!

 

[BlueAnorak]

Hill 166 and other things...

Ukraine Update: Ukraine may be about to flank Hill 166

This should be considered a companion piece of Kos’ Ukraine Update on a potential breach of the Surovikin Line west of the village of Verbove.

www.dailykos.com

 

[cleavers]

So yes, in the short term, day to day things will continue as normal.

His idea of "short term" was 3 days, its now over 18 months, and they've been in reverse for well over 12 of them.

 

[fulabeer]

His idea of "short term" was 3 days, its now over 18 months, and they've been in reverse for well over 12 of them.

Although he thought the invasion would only last three days, he knew sanctions were going to come.
The war chest was to see Russia through that.
What he didn't plan on was the Ukraine to be so strong. A lengthy war, and western resolve to back the Ukraine.

He is genuinely wrecking Russia from the inside. But he doesn't even care.
The light price Russians are paying now will be nothing compared to what's coming.
He has set the country back decades.

He talks about the "West" and Nato" being Russia's biggest threat.
The truth is "he" is the biggest threat to Russia...

 

[cleavers]

He is genuinely wrecking Russia from the inside. But he doesn't even care.
The light price Russians are paying now will be nothing compared to what's coming.
He has set the country back decades.

No doubt.

He talks about the "West" and Nato" being Russia's biggest threat.
The truth is "he" is the biggest threat to Russia...

Very true.

 

[gordondaviesmoustache]

Will be interesting to see if the relative ambivalence of Moscow inhabitants continues now that they are potentially in range of Ukrainian missile capability.

I suspect the first time a missile successfully hits Moscow, the shit will hit the fan big time.

Live by the drone…

 

[SkyBlueFlux]

Sanctions were always going to be a slow and long term plan. They gradually eat away at Putin's war chest.
He planned for the invasion, and had what he thought was enough cash to see it through.

So yes, in the short term, day to day things will continue as normal.
However, the longer this goes on, the harder it will be to sustain the economy. Even worse for them, the long term affects will be devastating. It could take decades for the Russian economy to pick up. Longer if reparations have to be paid. (to lift sanctions)

Every trick in the book is probably going on to make things seem ok. But like all illusions, it will all come crashing down when the illusion cannot be sustained.
I feel this day is nearing!

You are correct on the long-term impact of sanctions, but one of the big challenges where Russia is concerned is that since the late 90s it has prioritised having a low debt-to-GDP ratio. As a result it now has one of the lowest debt-to-GDP ratios in Europe, it’s at c17%. Compare that to where we are which is at around 90%.

This means Russia can afford to run a deficit, and they can probably keep running at a deficit for many many years. It is not going to run out of cash while it has exchange access to 3rd countries via energy markets. It will keep borrowing to fill budget gaps and that’s why a sudden collapse is unlikely - their debt isn’t likely to spiral like it would for some other countries causing them to default (in the traditional sense of not having the funds, rather than defaults due to currency exchange or clearing issues which have already happened). It will be expensive to borrow but it will remain possible.

Where it is going to hurt is when the oil and gas sales can no longer prop up GDP growth when prices dip and the EU line is fully closed off. Also if sanctions start to impact 3rd counties working with Russia to circumvent them. Then we’ll see economic stagnation or recession - while also seeing a higher proportion of public spending going into the military. Meaning the rest of the public purse getting badly squeezed. GDP stagnation leads to lower confidence in the Russian economy, which again increases the price of borrowing, which again leads to less money for the public purse. Vicious cycle.

So it’s likely to be a slow rot rather than a sudden drastic collapse.

 

[The Stockport Iniesta]

Although he thought the invasion would only last three days, he knew sanctions were going to come.
The war chest was to see Russia through that.
What he didn't plan on was the Ukraine to be so strong. A lengthy war, and western resolve to back the Ukraine.

He is genuinely wrecking Russia from the inside. But he doesn't even care.
The light price Russians are paying now will be nothing compared to what's coming.
He has set the country back decades.

He talks about the "West" and Nato" being Russia's biggest threat.
The truth is "he" is the biggest threat to Russia...

I wonder how much of the war chest has been nicked by short arse and his cronies? That's the only reason he's in power, to facilitate the theft of billions upon billions for himself and his mobster mate's.

 

[Kirkstall Blue]

Explains the Bradley vehicle, goes through step by step what’s happening on the battlefield some footage.
Nicholas Drummond former army officer specialist in land warfare

 

[SPIDERBOY]

Shitload more Ukrainian Forces crossed to left bank of Dnipro at Kozachi Laheri,Kerson Region.

Heroyam Slava.