At the risk of being a stuck record, it is doable with 2x requirements:
1. The packages need to keep coming regularly through 24 and they desperately need Biden to be re-elected with a strong Dem house
2. The price needs to get too high for Putin and the oligarchs. He has been giving away oil for 18 months to India and the UAE in exchange for chips and chemicals, has had the oligarchs strongly inline sacrificing their industrial empires to military production and has had an endless stream of poor, minorities to throw at Ukraine.
We have seen this year that the slog is extremely slow and painful, giving Russia time to restock (and plan more disastrous kamikaze’s) and inevitably progress will slow further over winter, buying yet more time to stockpile equipment and (poor quality) Korean ammo so it ultimately becomes a numbers game - knocking off enough, fast enough that Russia can’t sustain it.
The downside of a genocidal psycho with obscene funds to throw around is that they tend to be hard to batter into defeat!