gordondaviesmoustache
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Even I have my limits.
Russian invasion of Ukraine
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BlueAnorak
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More Russian Stuff...
More Russian stuff blowing up: Update on the situation in Avdiivka
Another SU-25 bites the dust. Xxx This is an update on the situation in Avdiivka from Ukrainian journalist Yuriy Butusov. Today, Russian troops crossed the railway line near the village of Stepove and began assault operations near the village itself,...
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Scottyboi
Well-Known Member
From the Analyst:
General Zaluzhny essentially declared the end of the offensive and that the start of a new ‘positional fight’ (military speak for stalemated winter fighting) has begun, in an interview with The Economist.
The situation overall changed very little - the northern front seems to see a lot of fire fights only for nothing to actually happen. Russia just keeps pushing and getting pushed back.
In Kherson we saw some extraordinary evidence of camouflage boats - literally floating moving islands of huge bushes being used to transport soldiers over the Dnepr. You have to laugh at them because of their appearance but they’ve turned out to be exceptionally effective. It’s the innovation that never stops making you smile.
The bizarre realities of Ukraine being responsible for the transshipment of Russian gas to Hungary is coming to an end next year. The Russians aren’t paying Ukraine to ship it and Ukraine says it will stop doing it when the legal contract runs out at the end of January. Ukraine seems to have let it continue as a favour to Hungary - but with Orban being so anti Ukraine it seems they no longer think it matters.
There is growing evidence that both sides are preparing for a major missile and drone conflict over the winter. Russia keeps testing drone pathways and looking for ever more complex ways of getting its cruise missile missions around the air defence radars or at least confusing them. One likely tactic is to flood the sky with drones and cheaper decoy missiles without warheads, then having used up the first set of defence missiles quickly follow it up with actual warheads that can slip past them.
The Russians know that the Ukraine’s air defences have virtually doubled. It’s quite likely they’ll even attempt to attack Patriot systems directly - yet a full System can be spread out over an area as wide as 10km.
One of the biggest issues is going to be missile supply for all of the systems. Patriots are ideal for anti-ballistic or aero-ballistic defences and keeping aircraft away. They can be used against cruise missiles but that’s not their priority. At $4.2 million each Patriot missiles aren’t cheap. However compared to the $20 million plus to rebuild a power generation system it’s a lot cheaper.
Drone killing systems are generally much shorter ranged which means you need many of them to cover off likely targets. Some sources say that virtually every surviving Gepard is now in Ukraine and Germany is producing more than enough ammunition for them.
Ukraine has gone to some lengths to modernise its electricity grid with a lot of western help and its can often be rapidly switched and redistributed to prevent such long blackouts. However the power stations themselves are like to be heavily targeted. It’s going to be a tough winter. It’s not just electricity. Many of these old soviet states use communal heating systems - a central heat generation facility that pumps hot water or steam into radiators covering several blocks of apartments. These are a favourite drone target.
This year it won’t all be one way. Russia has clearly been rebuilding its stockpiles and so has Ukraine. Russia must know that missiles and drones of Ukraine origin are going to fall all over western Russia this time. We know they expect it because they’ve installed S-400’s near their command centre at Rostov on Don as one example.
This is another aspect that Ukraine will be predicting- Russia has largely left off attacking Ukraine central government offices and command centres. I don’t think that’s going to continue. The only thing that’s stopping them is the fear that major landmarks in Moscow will come under attack - eventually one will get through and that frightens them - the symbolism of weakness that would show is impossible to ignore.
There have been changes too. The Shaheed drones have become noticeably quieter and use more sophisticated composites to reduce detection - although latest technologies are sensitive enough to pick up key components such as the motor and warhead, they will be harder to hit. (1/2)
General Zaluzhny essentially declared the end of the offensive and that the start of a new ‘positional fight’ (military speak for stalemated winter fighting) has begun, in an interview with The Economist.
The situation overall changed very little - the northern front seems to see a lot of fire fights only for nothing to actually happen. Russia just keeps pushing and getting pushed back.
In Kherson we saw some extraordinary evidence of camouflage boats - literally floating moving islands of huge bushes being used to transport soldiers over the Dnepr. You have to laugh at them because of their appearance but they’ve turned out to be exceptionally effective. It’s the innovation that never stops making you smile.
The bizarre realities of Ukraine being responsible for the transshipment of Russian gas to Hungary is coming to an end next year. The Russians aren’t paying Ukraine to ship it and Ukraine says it will stop doing it when the legal contract runs out at the end of January. Ukraine seems to have let it continue as a favour to Hungary - but with Orban being so anti Ukraine it seems they no longer think it matters.
There is growing evidence that both sides are preparing for a major missile and drone conflict over the winter. Russia keeps testing drone pathways and looking for ever more complex ways of getting its cruise missile missions around the air defence radars or at least confusing them. One likely tactic is to flood the sky with drones and cheaper decoy missiles without warheads, then having used up the first set of defence missiles quickly follow it up with actual warheads that can slip past them.
The Russians know that the Ukraine’s air defences have virtually doubled. It’s quite likely they’ll even attempt to attack Patriot systems directly - yet a full System can be spread out over an area as wide as 10km.
One of the biggest issues is going to be missile supply for all of the systems. Patriots are ideal for anti-ballistic or aero-ballistic defences and keeping aircraft away. They can be used against cruise missiles but that’s not their priority. At $4.2 million each Patriot missiles aren’t cheap. However compared to the $20 million plus to rebuild a power generation system it’s a lot cheaper.
Drone killing systems are generally much shorter ranged which means you need many of them to cover off likely targets. Some sources say that virtually every surviving Gepard is now in Ukraine and Germany is producing more than enough ammunition for them.
Ukraine has gone to some lengths to modernise its electricity grid with a lot of western help and its can often be rapidly switched and redistributed to prevent such long blackouts. However the power stations themselves are like to be heavily targeted. It’s going to be a tough winter. It’s not just electricity. Many of these old soviet states use communal heating systems - a central heat generation facility that pumps hot water or steam into radiators covering several blocks of apartments. These are a favourite drone target.
This year it won’t all be one way. Russia has clearly been rebuilding its stockpiles and so has Ukraine. Russia must know that missiles and drones of Ukraine origin are going to fall all over western Russia this time. We know they expect it because they’ve installed S-400’s near their command centre at Rostov on Don as one example.
This is another aspect that Ukraine will be predicting- Russia has largely left off attacking Ukraine central government offices and command centres. I don’t think that’s going to continue. The only thing that’s stopping them is the fear that major landmarks in Moscow will come under attack - eventually one will get through and that frightens them - the symbolism of weakness that would show is impossible to ignore.
There have been changes too. The Shaheed drones have become noticeably quieter and use more sophisticated composites to reduce detection - although latest technologies are sensitive enough to pick up key components such as the motor and warhead, they will be harder to hit. (1/2)
Scottyboi
Well-Known Member
CONTINUES… (2/2)
But that’s a two way street and Ukraine is hardly behind when it comes to innovation.
The summer war is over - the attrition of winter is about to begin.
Good news too in that the Netherlands is moving the first F-16’s to Romania in the next couple of weeks, following refurbishment, and training of Ukraine pilots and mechanics will begin.
Slava Ukraine
But that’s a two way street and Ukraine is hardly behind when it comes to innovation.
The summer war is over - the attrition of winter is about to begin.
Good news too in that the Netherlands is moving the first F-16’s to Romania in the next couple of weeks, following refurbishment, and training of Ukraine pilots and mechanics will begin.
Slava Ukraine
BlueAnorak
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Day 618 Review:
Ukraine Invasion Day 618: repelled advance in the Vuhledar direction of Donetsk Oblast
Russian forces attempted to advance in the Vuhledar direction in Donetsk Oblast but were fought off by Ukrainian defenders, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Nov. 2. Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Bakhmut and continued offensive operations...
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BlueAnorak
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Italy's PM Giorgia Meloni talks of international 'fatigue' over Ukraine war after falling victim to prank call by Russian comedians
A pair of Russian pranksters, known for tricking Western leaders and celebrities, fooled the Italian prime minister into thinking she was speaking to the president of the African Union Commission.
The West has never done enough to support Ukraine against Russian agression.
They waited and provarocated for far to long for arm Ukraine with the weapons it needed to kick Russia out of the South of Ukraine giving Russia the chance to dig in.
This prank call proves that they just want the Ukraine war to go away and will sell Ukraine down the river as soon as Russia accepts more limited aims. Yes she is right wing but she is more anti Russian than most.
All politicians make me sick. They are ALL prepared to sell democracy down the river.
Sorry to be so despondent but it is pretty clear the collective West doesn't really give a shit about Ukraine.
The brutal fact is we spend billions to support Ukraine to defeat Russia now or spend trillions to stop them in 10 years or so.
If we wait, the West really is totally fucked.
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gordondaviesmoustache
Well-Known Member
It will also show that Putin’s instincts about the west were broadly right. Weak and decadent.Let's be brutally honest.Italy's PM Giorgia Meloni talks of international 'fatigue' over Ukraine war after falling victim to prank call by Russian comedians
A pair of Russian pranksters, known for tricking Western leaders and celebrities, fooled the Italian prime minister into thinking she was speaking to the president of the African Union Commission.news.sky.com
The West has never done enough to support Ukraine against Russian agression.
They waited and provarocated for far to long for arm Ukraine with the weapons it needed to kick Russia out of the South of Ukraine giving Russia the chance to dig in.
This prank call proves that they just want the Ukraine war to go away and will sell Ukraine down the river as soon as Russia accepts more limited aims. Yes she is right wing but she is more anti Russian than most.
All politicians make me sick. They are ALL prepared to sell democracy down the river.
Sorry to be so despondent but it is pretty clear the collective West doesn't really give a shit about Ukraine.
The brutal fact is we spend billions to support Ukraine to defeat Russia now or spend trillions to stop them in 10 years or so.
If we wait, the West really is totally fucked.
As long as Ukraine wants our support in its current form, as a European partner, they should have it.
Kirkstall Blue
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When the money men start to whisper in the ear of politicians then we hear about the Ukraine war fatigue and stalemates.
In reality Ukraine needs our support now Germany have said Taurus next year I believe Germany and France are helping the most.
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BlueAnorak
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Absolutely.