From "The Analyst"
FRONTLINE UPDATE
The northern sector seems to have remained largely unchanged yesterday despite a few skirmishes.
Russia has continued to make small but concerning gains north of Klieshievka. These bother me because it was so hard to take these positions in the summer, that they’re being let go so quickly in the past week or so is depressing.
The Russians have also pushed Ukraine out of some of its summer gains north of Soledar.
At Shumy in the Horlivka region Ukraine has made further advances in the area around the slag heaps and mining areas. It’s still not clear what their objective is. It could be a distraction attack - if so it’s not working yet.
Avdivka continues to deteriorate. The Russians have made gains around the reservoir and water pumping station. They continue their pressure in the central industrial zone. In the south, their tactics have been very different to the relentless meat wave attacks of the northern pincer.
Here the Russians repeatedly use armoured columns that have to come out into open fields and are quickly taken out by Ukrainian fire. If they reach the mine fields they die there. Russia has used suicidal APC’s packed with explosives although none have reach Ukrainian lines. If they de-mine the area as a result of this attacks the Ukrainians quickly use dispersal shells to remind the area. A captured Russian soldier said he told his commander if they were made to attack they’d all be wiped out and they were sent anyway. He was the only survivor.
The key driver on the entire Avdivka front is the Russians just don’t seem to care what they lose. The pressure is relentless. It’s the same old Soviet era Stalingrad Response, the same as the Chinese and N Koreans used in the Korean War, or the Iranians used in the war with Iraq in the 1980’s. Just keep piling it on until the enemy is exhausted and retreats. It’s staggering that the Russians still have so much left from the Soviet era because they’re not producing vehicles in anything like the quantity they’ve den losing them. Sooner or later they have to reach the bottom of what seems like an inexhaustible barrel.
The Russians yesterday deployed the first of a new FAB-500 bomb on the area around Urazhine in the south. Only this time it contained cluster munitions. This is a most unwelcome development and has no counter. The only way these will be stopped is if Ukraine has aircraft or SAM’s that can push the delivery flight far enough away to put them out of range.
The Robotyne salient continues to look like a real defensive problem. The Russians don’t see it as a threat anymore and have left it alone while they attack Avdivka, but sooner or later they’ll have a go and it’s going to be extremely hard to hold onto without considerable commitment.
The failure of the offensive here has left Ukraine burdened in my opinion, with land it will feel it has to hold because it cost so much to take it.
Yet it has little value for further launching an attack because the Russians have such heavy defences.
Down in the Kherson front things have turned difficult with the Russians using FAB-500 bombs on Krynky and Ukrainian positions. Ukraine admits it has taken losses but that they have made chopped meat of the Russians and their logistics. In addition they claim the Ukrainian air force has been very active here as there’s little Russian opposition and have conducted their own ground strikes and air superiority missions to deter the bomb runs. The FAB’s seem to get used from a good 25-30km away though and are impossible to stop when launched.
Overall Avdivka is still held and still on a knife edge. It’s a vicious fight. Ukraine has lost the initiative- we have to accept that for now, along the entire front. Kherson can’t really move without huge reinforcements and the Russians have realised that they’re best containing it rather than breaking it with ground forces. Relentless bombing is the new strategy. The new cluster bomb is a very unwelcome development and will lead to increased Ukrainian casualties. CONTINUES…
