Russian invasion of Ukraine

From "The Analyst":

VICTORY AT STEPOVE

Ukraine managed a significant victory at Stepove, breaking through the rail line and rather upsetting the Russian attempt to expand the northern pincer being used to break behind Avdivka. Whether or not it can be sustained is another matter. However it was a shock to the Russians that it even happened.
Kremina area further north is looking increasingly like it might be the launch point for another Russian attack to take Kupyansk.
Klieshievka’s northern flank is especially difficult and the Russians are also making small but very expensive gains near Andrivka.
The Horlivka areas is looking more like it’s a Ukrainian distraction attack - it’s opportunistic but also capable of holding Russian troops in place where they were weak.
Generally speaking the entire Avdivka front is showing heavy fighting - where the Russians can use vehicles they are, but mostly they use large amounts of infantry to persist and overwhelm.
The Kherson front is under strict operational security and reliable information is difficult to come by. I get told things but nothing I’d repeat or that would add anything valuable.
Other issues include the first deployment of the new S400 autonomous missile system. This appears to be a fire and forget self targeting and re-targeting system. How many they have is likely very limited. In fact if it was more than one unit I’d be amazed.
Another thing that seems clear is that Ukraine has managed to use JDAMS in the Kherson region. These have been highly susceptible to jamming in the past so this is good news.
Plenty of videos today showing snow in many areas of the front, though it seems light for now.
The Russians have taken their fleet away from Crimea completely. It seems they’ve had enough of being consistently targeted and they’re admitting they’ve rebased to the mainland at Novorossiysk.
In the deluded world of senior leadership, Shoigu announced a whole raft of military production successes that seem to be little more than made up. Yet again he emphasised that there are no Ukrainians on the south bank of the Dnepr. Either that’s what he’s being told and he believes it or he knows the truth and is just lying. The way Russian commanders operate I’d bet he thinks it’s true.
As we enter winter Russian strategy is starting to look clearer to me and we’ll look at this later.

Slava Ukraini !
 
Forgot to post the vids this morning- sorry:

When is a drone not a drone? ANS: when it's controlling an automated machine gun moving down Russian meat waves. Gets round the Bakhmut problem when Russian's send small groups forward to get shot then they call in artillary to blow the possessions away...
Should have added a chuffing big bomb to take out those who take the position.


 
Big post on what to expect this winter and next year, it's just an opinion but make of it what you will.

From "The Analyst":

WHAT IS RUSSIA’S WINTER STRATEGY?
PART 1.
This year Russia faces probably an even more uphill task than it did last year, with Ukraine clearly stronger and better able to defend itself.
I have to play devils advocate here so please bear that in mind. You have to turn the map around and quite literally look at the front, not as we all tend to do, from an Ukraine-centric perspective looking east. You have to sit on the side of the enemy and look at the map as they see it, looking west. It’s surprising how different the world looks.
Firstly if you look at the map in the way I described, the furthest reaches of the empire and the front line are the occupied Kherson and the Dnepr. Not only is it hardest to supply, the area has little strategic value post war, and it almost looks like it doesn’t matter what Ukraine tries to do, because they can’t get enough forces of the type that matters over the river. From Moscow the level of defence that’s being offered now is more than enough to stop Ukraine moving on. It’s like an irritating spot you don’t want to spread into a cancer. Keep it contained and it’s unlikely to go anywhere. And if it looks like it might spread, then and only then do you tackle it.
The southern front you can probably be happy with. Ukraine failed to break it though it got close a few times. Now they’re stuck in a salient they nearly broke themselves trying to take and you can keep them there, while repairing defences and constantly pressuring them. It’s not likely to move anytime soon. They’d be mad to try the same thing again next year.
Your principal objective is Avdivka. You know that if you take this town the chances of Ukraine ever pushing Russia out of the south and west is reduced dramatically. You have the manpower and you have no scruples. You don’t care how many die or what gets burnt up taking it. Bakhmut proves that the tactics used work in the end, and you can already see it’s starting to bear fruit even now. If it takes all winter so be it. As long as it’s done before the presidential elections in four months time.
You also know you want to draw the Ukrainians into battles to defend what they spent much resource taking in the summer. Getting them out of Klieshievka would be a victory and painful for the enemy.
That leaves Kupyansk. You need to prepare the ground over winter for your offensive to drive the Ukrainians back to the Oskil River and make the road ready to retake Kupyansk. With borders along key rivers and the main towns secured in the Luhansk-Donetsk areas by the middle of next year - all other conditions being well you can seriously see the prospect of negotiations.
Any sensible Russian general would not bother with the wasting of missiles this time on cities and electrical infrastructure. It’s a waste of time. It may not be a military decision any more than it was last year. It’s a political one from the top.
However with thousands of Iranian drones being built in Russia now, they will be used against civilian targets.
The real military capability of the missiles against targets that will really matter needs to be the focus. The F-16’s will arrive and need basing. Satellites must by now be able to see which bases they plan to use. Deception may be used to hide them but you have enough missiles to hit everything that needs hitting. Timing will be everything - massive attacks will be needed to either constantly hamper development or wait until it’s almost complete and then attack. It will take high volume attacks to get past the vastly upgraded air defences. And it needs to be done right first time. There won’t be any second chances.
So those are the elements of the picture that has to be taken into consideration.
The overall strategy is reach a point where Ukraine has to negotiate. To get there you have to make them understand they are not going to win on the battlefield. That’s all it takes. You don’t have to win you just don’t have to lose.
 
PART 2
Constant pressure on every front, never letting them build up significant reserves for counter attacks, constantly attriting wherever you can so they can never move to defend anything significantly well to stop you reaching your goals.
And it goes beyond the battlefield. Europe is already facing an internal EU crisis. Yesterday the results of Dutch elections put a right wing anti-immigrant anti-Ukraine party in line to attempt to form a government with 35 of 150 seats in the Dutch parliament. So far the other parties have refused to work with it. After the last Dutch elections it took 271 days to form a new government. It’s unlikely to stop Ukraine getting F-16’s at this stage. Party Leader Gert Wilders is a racist Islamophobic nationalist, anti-EU and Orban was the first congratulatory call. That tells you all you need to know. Between these three (Fico in Slovakia being the third) if they achieve power, Ukraine won’t get into the EU. All of this is playing into Putin’s hands and Russian propaganda and misinformation has driven much of the fear. Add to that British elections likely in 2024 and US presidential and general elections in November, a distinct nationalist leaning in German politics as well, and the EU and NATO is heading down a rocky political road. All of it leans more and more to favouring Putin’s agenda to force Ukraine to accept peace on his terms, under western pressure.
Right now, if I was sat in the big seat in the Kremlin I would be holding my nerve and keeping on a steady course. From Moscow the lean of events right now seems to be in their favour. Undermined western unity is the key to ending the war.
I remain convinced Putin does want to end it. It’s making things difficult and Russia is turning into something rotten. You can only make people miserable so long before they get tired of it, even Russians get fed up with all the crap they deal with eventually. The Economic outlook is pretty bad too, and all the time the war goes on Russia looks weaker against China, its energy sector is struggling and its industries are in free fall. Ending the war will be made to look like a victory even though the original objectives are lost in the mists of propaganda. Not loosing it and keeping what they have will be a win. Time to take stock, rebuild and go again in ten years, having learned valuable lessons.
Right now if I was in the Kremlin, in general, I would do what they are doing. But Russia often makes silly mistakes and its ability to concentrate on what matters is constantly changing if it feels it needs to make a point, rather than achieve a strategic goal. It’s the anti-culture war that distracts Putin so often as he tries to undermine Ukraine’s sense of national cohesion, with missile bombardments, which actually have the exact opposite effect.
Dictatorships respond emotionally in fits and starts and that’s a core Russian weakness. Corruption and a lack of ideology are its others. Nobody knows why they’re doing this and everyone hates them or is using them for their own ends, that’s how they feel. It’s that that’s at the core of the victimhood that state propaganda and its relentless distortions persuade Russians to keep the faith in Putin he really no longer deserves.
 
Scottyboi said:
PART 2
Constant pressure on every front, never letting them build up significant reserves for counter attacks, constantly attriting wherever you can so they can never move to defend anything significantly well to stop you reaching your goals.
And it goes beyond the battlefield. Europe is already facing an internal EU crisis. Yesterday the results of Dutch elections put a right wing anti-immigrant anti-Ukraine party in line to attempt to form a government with 35 of 150 seats in the Dutch parliament. So far the other parties have refused to work with it. After the last Dutch elections it took 271 days to form a new government. It’s unlikely to stop Ukraine getting F-16’s at this stage. Party Leader Gert Wilders is a racist Islamophobic nationalist, anti-EU and Orban was the first congratulatory call. That tells you all you need to know. Between these three (Fico in Slovakia being the third) if they achieve power, Ukraine won’t get into the EU. All of this is playing into Putin’s hands and Russian propaganda and misinformation has driven much of the fear. Add to that British elections likely in 2024 and US presidential and general elections in November, a distinct nationalist leaning in German politics as well, and the EU and NATO is heading down a rocky political road. All of it leans more and more to favouring Putin’s agenda to force Ukraine to accept peace on his terms, under western pressure.
Right now, if I was sat in the big seat in the Kremlin I would be holding my nerve and keeping on a steady course. From Moscow the lean of events right now seems to be in their favour. Undermined western unity is the key to ending the war.
I remain convinced Putin does want to end it. It’s making things difficult and Russia is turning into something rotten. You can only make people miserable so long before they get tired of it, even Russians get fed up with all the crap they deal with eventually. The Economic outlook is pretty bad too, and all the time the war goes on Russia looks weaker against China, its energy sector is struggling and its industries are in free fall. Ending the war will be made to look like a victory even though the original objectives are lost in the mists of propaganda. Not loosing it and keeping what they have will be a win. Time to take stock, rebuild and go again in ten years, having learned valuable lessons.
Right now if I was in the Kremlin, in general, I would do what they are doing. But Russia often makes silly mistakes and its ability to concentrate on what matters is constantly changing if it feels it needs to make a point, rather than achieve a strategic goal. It’s the anti-culture war that distracts Putin so often as he tries to undermine Ukraine’s sense of national cohesion, with missile bombardments, which actually have the exact opposite effect.
Dictatorships respond emotionally in fits and starts and that’s a core Russian weakness. Corruption and a lack of ideology are its others. Nobody knows why they’re doing this and everyone hates them or is using them for their own ends, that’s how they feel. It’s that that’s at the core of the victimhood that state propaganda and its relentless distortions persuade Russians to keep the faith in Putin he really no longer deserves.
Click to expand...
Fortunately, Gert Wilders can't get into power without the cooperation of 2 other parties and without continuing Ukrainian support that isn't going to happen.
 
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