Scottyboi
Well-Known Member
From "The Analyst":
FRONT UPDATE 3/4 DECEMBER
NORTH
The Russians seem to have made a quick advance from their westward pointing salient around Kremina. It suddenly increased in combat tempo with both sides claiming ground taken - it seems the Ukrainians advanced in one area but a Russian attack advanced to the south of it and took a considerable slice of land.
There’s not a great deal of granular detail on how this unfolded so hopefully more later.
Literally just south of this salient in the Surabianski forest the Ukrainians seem to have made some gains.
BAKHMUT
Russian forces have continued to push back on the length of the Klieshievka-Andrivka line making small put continuous gains along the various water features there. They have almost completely pushed Ukraine away from the railway line now.
AVDIVKA
Russian forces continue to make gains pushing north from Opytne on the southern pincer.
On the northern pincer Russian forces have gained control over the eastern outskirts of Stepove and have seemingly managed to keep it this time. A significant tree line to the south of Stepove is also under clear Russian control and is most of a kilometre long.
These two events mark a significant weakening of the defence lines. It places the main road in to Avdivka even closer and threatens the enveloping of the coking plant form the north. Coupled to the moves up from the south it’s not a pretty picture mid to long term.
Unless there is some kind of major counter attack to reverse Russian gains the depth of the neck that has Avdivka at the end of it is going to become rapidly untenable.
The Russians seem to have chosen the pincers as the primary pressure points now. Even small advances here on what’s is a very long and difficult Ukrainian defence line, mean they will either have to withdraw at a rapid pace or face complete encirclement in the city and a siege they can’t ultimately win.
MARINKA
This area has been static for months and suddenly there has been and exchange over the past week with some Russian and Ukrainian gains.
The area has suddenly become contested again and combat has intensified.
ROBOTYNE SALIENT
Ukraine keeps the Russians focused here by continuing to make attacks towards Kopani and Novopropopivka, but this seems to me more about keeping the Russians engaged and disinclined to leave and get deployed somewhere they might do more damage. I suspect too, that as long as Ukraine maintains light offensive operations its stops the Russians from building up forces to expunge the salient.
KHERSON: nothing new to report except more of the same. Russia tries to remove the Ukrainians and they aren’t going anywhere.
The real concern is of course, Avdivka. It’s slowly deteriorating. Russia loses stacks of men and equipment but it hasn’t stopped them and unless the tempo of destruction can be stepped up to a level where it does make them pause, it seems otherwise relentless. It’s at this point the lack of aid packages from the US and the lack of artillery ammo promised from Europe is starting to notice. Ukraine doesn’t have enough to stop what’s happening.
Slava Ukraini !
FRONT UPDATE 3/4 DECEMBER
NORTH
The Russians seem to have made a quick advance from their westward pointing salient around Kremina. It suddenly increased in combat tempo with both sides claiming ground taken - it seems the Ukrainians advanced in one area but a Russian attack advanced to the south of it and took a considerable slice of land.
There’s not a great deal of granular detail on how this unfolded so hopefully more later.
Literally just south of this salient in the Surabianski forest the Ukrainians seem to have made some gains.
BAKHMUT
Russian forces have continued to push back on the length of the Klieshievka-Andrivka line making small put continuous gains along the various water features there. They have almost completely pushed Ukraine away from the railway line now.
AVDIVKA
Russian forces continue to make gains pushing north from Opytne on the southern pincer.
On the northern pincer Russian forces have gained control over the eastern outskirts of Stepove and have seemingly managed to keep it this time. A significant tree line to the south of Stepove is also under clear Russian control and is most of a kilometre long.
These two events mark a significant weakening of the defence lines. It places the main road in to Avdivka even closer and threatens the enveloping of the coking plant form the north. Coupled to the moves up from the south it’s not a pretty picture mid to long term.
Unless there is some kind of major counter attack to reverse Russian gains the depth of the neck that has Avdivka at the end of it is going to become rapidly untenable.
The Russians seem to have chosen the pincers as the primary pressure points now. Even small advances here on what’s is a very long and difficult Ukrainian defence line, mean they will either have to withdraw at a rapid pace or face complete encirclement in the city and a siege they can’t ultimately win.
MARINKA
This area has been static for months and suddenly there has been and exchange over the past week with some Russian and Ukrainian gains.
The area has suddenly become contested again and combat has intensified.
ROBOTYNE SALIENT
Ukraine keeps the Russians focused here by continuing to make attacks towards Kopani and Novopropopivka, but this seems to me more about keeping the Russians engaged and disinclined to leave and get deployed somewhere they might do more damage. I suspect too, that as long as Ukraine maintains light offensive operations its stops the Russians from building up forces to expunge the salient.
KHERSON: nothing new to report except more of the same. Russia tries to remove the Ukrainians and they aren’t going anywhere.
The real concern is of course, Avdivka. It’s slowly deteriorating. Russia loses stacks of men and equipment but it hasn’t stopped them and unless the tempo of destruction can be stepped up to a level where it does make them pause, it seems otherwise relentless. It’s at this point the lack of aid packages from the US and the lack of artillery ammo promised from Europe is starting to notice. Ukraine doesn’t have enough to stop what’s happening.
Slava Ukraini !
