From "The Analyst":
2024 OUTLOOK FOR THE WAR IN UKRAINIE
I think the first thing to appreciate is that despite very difficult situations and pressure from relentless Russian manpower based attacks, Ukraine continues to manage effective and comprehensive resistance.
Ukraine is not making it easy in any way for Russia and the cost is ludicrously high for the enemy to make any gains. Yet it’s a cost they still seem perfectly happy to pay - at least at the highest levels. The public is starting to guess things are worse than they seem and they know they’re being lied to - recent BBC reporting on this was surprisingly frank - not all Russians are scared to say what they think to a point. However they remain extraordinarily convinced that the war was not of their doing but forced on them, showing how effective propaganda has been.
Ukraine remains steadfastly behind its leadership. The fight against Russia is an existential one and they know it. The question now is how to win.
That problem is not one that will resolve itself this year unless there is dramatic change in Russia and that seems unlikely.
Central to what Ukraine can do to expel the Russians or so fundamentally defeat them so they have to negotiate, remains US aid. Only with US aid can sufficient resources be supplied in sufficient time to enable an offensive.
This time, let us hope that the lessons of 2023 - especially that of secrecy and surprise as much as possible, is learned and foremost in everyone’s minds. Bleating on about where the offensive would be months in advance last year was simply ludicrous and irresponsible - western media was just as much to blame for amplifying it.
We have to appreciate that the Russians have also evolved in many ways - they have not stood still. Their defences behind the immediate front are formidable. Both sides have and are using mines and trench defences on a scale that’s so deep and so complete they pose incredible challenges to overcome. Neither side can rely on air power to be decisive.
As air power is more important than ever Russia is facing the problem of poor training and maintenance at one end and dangerous Ukrainian air defences at the other - sufficient to curtail what they can do.
Ukraine, even if it manages to acquire all of the F-16, Grippen and Mirage’s that may be on offer, has the same problem to deal with and also the fact Russia does have significant and little used air to air capability. It’s unlikely these two forces will do more than negate each others and make them both tactically ineffective by creating a strategic stalemate in the air. That probably benefits Ukraine by giving its ground forces cover they have long needed, but it’s unlikely to change the balance against Russia overall.
Russia will retain its missile advantage but Ukraine’s capabilities to reach further and further into Russia with drones and their own missiles is inevitably going to be felt inside Russia itself.
The latest Russian missile attack showed a new sophistication in approach - an inevitable development - and also missile improvements where many were seen using anti-homing decoys to distract infrared seeking missiles.
Yet this is how long term wars work. One outwits and outstrips the other and gains and advantage that is often quickly and decisively countered. That’s the way of war and it always will be, only this war things are changing at an extraordinary rate.
Especially on the drone front.
The drone front is not just about drones anymore - it’s just as deeply wrapped up in the electronic warfare domain. The two are a symbiotic relationship, one enables the other.
The newest drones being fielded will included those that go into battle with an EW escort drone capable of providing a bubble of multi-frequency EW support, and greater reliance on algorithmic decision making for drones is inevitable. This is a field Ukraine is already excelling in and must continue to lead. But Russia isn’t doing badly either, though it’s nowhere near as advanced as Ukraine its systems can be lethal as the Lancet series has proven to be.
The lessons of history are there for all to see. The war has reached a state of impasse. It is in its middle period.
The tipping point long ago passed by. Just as Hitler’s massive attack on Russia failed within its time frame to defeat Russia and was lost just weeks after it started, it took nearly four years to reverse it and bring it to its inevitable end. The attacker lost.
Russia lost this war within three days, its short sharp occupation and defeat of Ukraine failed and its never going to win. But it will take years to reverse what it has taken. This year has to be the start of that process.
New ideas, new strategies, new plans, innovation and flexible thinking, surprise and resilience will bring results. These are things Ukraine excels at and it has the support of dynamic companies at home and in the west keen to prove they can deliver.
But The West must not falter. The EU, NATO and America must not fall for the insidious information war Russia and its allies are waging against us. Only this weekend published documents on Russian plans to undermine France have been made clear. All of us have a part to play in calling out the liars and the untruths.
It’s an uphill task but it must be done.
I firmly believe in a Ukrainian Victory. Russia cannot be allowed to win this war.
It will take all of us to make sure that we give Ukraine the means to carry on and win. It just won’t be this year. That’s something we all have to accept and deal with.
Slava Ukraini !
