Russian invasion of Ukraine

From "The Analyst":

2024 OUTLOOK FOR THE WAR IN UKRAINIE

I think the first thing to appreciate is that despite very difficult situations and pressure from relentless Russian manpower based attacks, Ukraine continues to manage effective and comprehensive resistance.
Ukraine is not making it easy in any way for Russia and the cost is ludicrously high for the enemy to make any gains. Yet it’s a cost they still seem perfectly happy to pay - at least at the highest levels. The public is starting to guess things are worse than they seem and they know they’re being lied to - recent BBC reporting on this was surprisingly frank - not all Russians are scared to say what they think to a point. However they remain extraordinarily convinced that the war was not of their doing but forced on them, showing how effective propaganda has been.
Ukraine remains steadfastly behind its leadership. The fight against Russia is an existential one and they know it. The question now is how to win.
That problem is not one that will resolve itself this year unless there is dramatic change in Russia and that seems unlikely.
Central to what Ukraine can do to expel the Russians or so fundamentally defeat them so they have to negotiate, remains US aid. Only with US aid can sufficient resources be supplied in sufficient time to enable an offensive.
This time, let us hope that the lessons of 2023 - especially that of secrecy and surprise as much as possible, is learned and foremost in everyone’s minds. Bleating on about where the offensive would be months in advance last year was simply ludicrous and irresponsible - western media was just as much to blame for amplifying it.
We have to appreciate that the Russians have also evolved in many ways - they have not stood still. Their defences behind the immediate front are formidable. Both sides have and are using mines and trench defences on a scale that’s so deep and so complete they pose incredible challenges to overcome. Neither side can rely on air power to be decisive.
As air power is more important than ever Russia is facing the problem of poor training and maintenance at one end and dangerous Ukrainian air defences at the other - sufficient to curtail what they can do.
Ukraine, even if it manages to acquire all of the F-16, Grippen and Mirage’s that may be on offer, has the same problem to deal with and also the fact Russia does have significant and little used air to air capability. It’s unlikely these two forces will do more than negate each others and make them both tactically ineffective by creating a strategic stalemate in the air. That probably benefits Ukraine by giving its ground forces cover they have long needed, but it’s unlikely to change the balance against Russia overall.
Russia will retain its missile advantage but Ukraine’s capabilities to reach further and further into Russia with drones and their own missiles is inevitably going to be felt inside Russia itself.
The latest Russian missile attack showed a new sophistication in approach - an inevitable development - and also missile improvements where many were seen using anti-homing decoys to distract infrared seeking missiles.
Yet this is how long term wars work. One outwits and outstrips the other and gains and advantage that is often quickly and decisively countered. That’s the way of war and it always will be, only this war things are changing at an extraordinary rate.
Especially on the drone front.
The drone front is not just about drones anymore - it’s just as deeply wrapped up in the electronic warfare domain. The two are a symbiotic relationship, one enables the other.
The newest drones being fielded will included those that go into battle with an EW escort drone capable of providing a bubble of multi-frequency EW support, and greater reliance on algorithmic decision making for drones is inevitable. This is a field Ukraine is already excelling in and must continue to lead. But Russia isn’t doing badly either, though it’s nowhere near as advanced as Ukraine its systems can be lethal as the Lancet series has proven to be.
The lessons of history are there for all to see. The war has reached a state of impasse. It is in its middle period.
The tipping point long ago passed by. Just as Hitler’s massive attack on Russia failed within its time frame to defeat Russia and was lost just weeks after it started, it took nearly four years to reverse it and bring it to its inevitable end. The attacker lost.
Russia lost this war within three days, its short sharp occupation and defeat of Ukraine failed and its never going to win. But it will take years to reverse what it has taken. This year has to be the start of that process.
New ideas, new strategies, new plans, innovation and flexible thinking, surprise and resilience will bring results. These are things Ukraine excels at and it has the support of dynamic companies at home and in the west keen to prove they can deliver.
But The West must not falter. The EU, NATO and America must not fall for the insidious information war Russia and its allies are waging against us. Only this weekend published documents on Russian plans to undermine France have been made clear. All of us have a part to play in calling out the liars and the untruths.
It’s an uphill task but it must be done.
I firmly believe in a Ukrainian Victory. Russia cannot be allowed to win this war.
It will take all of us to make sure that we give Ukraine the means to carry on and win. It just won’t be this year. That’s something we all have to accept and deal with.

Slava Ukraini !
I have said from the start of this war three things need to happen for it to end quickly and Putin to be deposed.

1. The trade embargo needs to be complete, China should be given a choice trade with Putins Russia or trade with the west. The West is a trading block 35 times the size of tin pot Russia. Any Western Company found to be trading with Russia should be fined heavily.

2. All Russians regardless of status, wealth or politics should be expelled from the west back to their shitty country until Russia withdraws from Ukriane and Crimea. Everyday Russians should be made to suffer like their country has made Ukraine suffer.

3. The West should give/sell Ukraine whatever it needs to take the war to Russias military. That includes, long range missiles to take out the Kerch Bridge and unlimited access to Musks Skylink. Tinkering round the edges doesn't end wars, it just prolongs them.
 
1. The trade embargo needs to be complete, China should be given a choice trade with Putins Russia or trade with the west. The West is a trading block 35 times the size of tin pot Russia. Any Western Company found to be trading with Russia should be fined heavily.
Not sure how that would be legal, on the face of it china aren't doing anything wrong, same as UAE etc, but some pressure should be applied certainly.

All western countries still trading in russia should be sanctioned totally.

2. All Russians regardless of status, wealth or politics should be expelled from the west back to their shitty country until Russia withdraws from Ukriane and Crimea. Everyday Russians should be made to suffer like their country has made Ukraine suffer.
Many russians live perfectly well in other societies, in many employments, and have for many years, they are not in support of this, and in many cases have come out against it, "sending them home" would be a death sentence, that's no way to behave as a democracy.

3. The West should give/sell Ukraine whatever it needs to take the war to Russias military. That includes, long range missiles to take out the Kerch Bridge and unlimited access to Musks Skylink. Tinkering round the edges doesn't end wars, it just prolongs them.
I largely agree, but if Ukraine wanted to take down the kerch bridge, it already has the means to do so, which makes you wonder why they haven't so far ?

Maybe something else at play here ?
 
Not sure how that would be legal, on the face of it china aren't doing anything wrong, same as UAE etc, but some pressure should be applied certainly.

All western countries still trading in russia should be sanctioned totally.


Many russians live perfectly well in other societies, in many employments, and have for many years, they are not in support of this, and in many cases have come out against it, "sending them home" would be a death sentence, that's no way to behave as a democracy.


I largely agree, but if Ukraine wanted to take down the kerch bridge, it already has the means to do so, which makes you wonder why they haven't so far ?

Maybe something else at play here ?
Hard decisions need to be made to end wars. Those decisions shouldn't be left to do good politicians who don't want to offend upset anyone.

The trade embargo is already affecting Russians in their own country, whether they support the war or not. Best to encapsulate all of them, especially those enjoying western freedoms, while their country reigns terror on another. Ban and deport all of them and then you might also get some meaningful opposition.

You adopt all those ideas and the war would be over in less than a month. Or you go for one, you just make China realise who its real trading partner is. Probably the same result.

As for the bridge, I don't think they have the capability to destroy it. Otherwise they clearly would have. They have tried but have been unsuccessful.
 
I have said from the start of this war three things need to happen for it to end quickly and Putin to be deposed.

1. The trade embargo needs to be complete, China should be given a choice trade with Putins Russia or trade with the west. The West is a trading block 35 times the size of tin pot Russia. Any Western Company found to be trading with Russia should be fined heavily.

2. All Russians regardless of status, wealth or politics should be expelled from the west back to their shitty country until Russia withdraws from Ukriane and Crimea. Everyday Russians should be made to suffer like their country has made Ukraine suffer.

3. The West should give/sell Ukraine whatever it needs to take the war to Russias military. That includes, long range missiles to take out the Kerch Bridge and unlimited access to Musks Skylink. Tinkering round the edges doesn't end wars, it just prolongs them.
Cutting off trade with China would literally bankrupt Western economies. It would destroy the stock market, wiping out pensions and countless other derivative financial instruments. So that ultimatum is a mental idea.

Expelling Russians living in other countries who likely don't support their regime any more than we do would mean at least some of them ending up in prison camps or worse.

You talk a lot of bollocks but bloody hell this post takes some beating.

The harsh reality is there isn't an answer to how to end this war easily, short of Putin pulling out / Russia getting rid of Putin themselves.

My personal hunch is that Trump will get in and the Americans will cut funding, forcing Ukraine to make concessions but I hope I am wrong.
 
Hard decisions need to be made to end wars. Those decisions shouldn't be left to do good politicians who don't want to offend upset anyone.

The trade embargo is already affecting Russians in their own country, whether they support the war or not. Best to encapsulate all of them, especially those enjoying western freedoms, while their country reigns terror on another. Ban and deport all of them and then you might also get some meaningful opposition.

You adopt all those ideas and the war would be over in less than a month. Or you go for one, you just make China realise who its real trading partner is. Probably the same result.

As for the bridge, I don't think they have the capability to destroy it. Otherwise they clearly would have. They have tried but have been unsuccessful.
I was too harsh on you a few months back, for which I apologise.
 
As for the bridge, I don't think they have the capability to destroy it. Otherwise they clearly would have. They have tried but have been unsuccessful.
Totally disagree, they very much have the ability to bring it down, they attacked it to show how vulnerable it is, they didn't want it brought down (yet).

Expelling Russians living in other countries who likely don't support their regime any more than we do would mean at least some of them ending up in prison camps or worse.
Or on the other side sadly.
 
Cutting off trade with China would literally bankrupt Western economies. It would destroy the stock market, wiping out pensions and countless other derivative financial instruments. So that ultimatum is a mental idea.

Expelling Russians living in other countries who likely don't support their regime any more than we do would mean at least some of them ending up in prison camps or worse.

You talk a lot of bollocks but bloody hell this post takes some beating.

The harsh reality is there isn't an answer to how to end this war easily, short of Putin pulling out / Russia getting rid of Putin themselves.

My personal hunch is that Trump will get in and the Americans will cut funding, forcing Ukraine to make concessions but I hope I am wrong.

So you think China would choose to cut off trade with the west rather than Putin. I don't. 35 times is the number you need to remember. Its all about brinkmanship.

I guess you have never played poker?? ;-)

Secondly I don't care as much as you do for Russians living in the West when Ukrainians are suffering. You take the war to the Russian people and it will end sooner. Its as simple as that.
 
Cutting off trade with China would literally bankrupt Western economies. It would destroy the stock market, wiping out pensions and countless other derivative financial instruments. So that ultimatum is a mental idea.

Expelling Russians living in other countries who likely don't support their regime any more than we do would mean at least some of them ending up in prison camps or worse.

You talk a lot of bollocks but bloody hell this post takes some beating.

The harsh reality is there isn't an answer to how to end this war easily, short of Putin pulling out / Russia getting rid of Putin themselves.

My personal hunch is that Trump will get in and the Americans will cut funding, forcing Ukraine to make concessions but I hope I am wrong.
And if Trump gets in and the war ends and Ukraine loses sovereignty, would you be happy resuming trade with Putins Russia. Not for me I'm afraid.
 

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