Russian invasion of Ukraine

It's not that unrealistic unfortunately. With which forces could NATO react? A conventional attack will not get answered with nuclear weapons and the republicans don't support Europeans anymore.

The fightings in Ukraine have stalled because of a devastated region that is full of mines and trenches. Nothing like that in the Baltics, though and Putin definitely has enough manpower on the ground to do that.

All European countries need to finally step up and strengthen their military asap. NATO can't even ship much more material to the Baltic countries because they risk to lose it there. You just don't have the space to fight a mobile defense there as preferred by NATO.

The only country that could deliver help fast, is Poland. But Poland is on their way into a constitutional crisis and pis is currently blocking the designation of several crucial positions in their military.
 
Dage said:
It's not that unrealistic unfortunately. With which forces could NATO react? A conventional attack will not get answered with nuclear weapons and the republicans don't support Europeans anymore.

The fightings in Ukraine have stalled because of a devastated region that is full of mines and trenches. Nothing like that in the Baltics, though and Putin definitely has enough manpower on the ground to do that.

All European countries need to finally step up and strengthen their military asap. NATO can't even ship much more material to the Baltic countries because they risk to lose it there. You just don't have the space to fight a mobile defense there as preferred by NATO.

The only country that could deliver help fast, is Poland. But Poland is on their way into a constitutional crisis and pis is currently blocking the designation of several crucial positions in their military.
Click to expand...
Russia cannot magic forces on the border overnight. As they did with Ukraine they would have to build them up over several weeks. And we have seen how brilliant Russians are with their logistics. Would you expect NATO to be sat sucking a thumb letting them get on with it? NATO has a rapid response strategy with forces to back it up. They would also have air superiority in a matter of hours with 5 major air force's fighters within 3 hours flying time. Even Putin isn't that stupid.
 
The gathering of troops is the only thing that gives me hope with this, tbh. But we really don't know how Belarus will cooperate or participate. For a theater like the Baltic states, air support is not as important as in Ukraine because you just can't bomb the shit out of Russia's troops when they move through heavily populated areas. It's a worsecase scenario with Putin goes full nutjob but I fear there is a scenario here. Putin also could way easier declare a defeat against the combined power of NATO than a defeat against Ukraine. You have dozens of pundits predicting an escalation of Putin with NATO from the next 2 months up to the next 10 years.

But hell no, I never would accept an escalation like that. Personally I started the process of becoming officer of reserve of the Bundeswehr end of last year. Not the fastest or easiest process, I can tell you that.
 
Dage said:
It's not that unrealistic unfortunately. With which forces could NATO react? A conventional attack will not get answered with nuclear weapons and the republicans don't support Europeans anymore.

The fightings in Ukraine have stalled because of a devastated region that is full of mines and trenches. Nothing like that in the Baltics, though and Putin definitely has enough manpower on the ground to do that.

All European countries need to finally step up and strengthen their military asap. NATO can't even ship much more material to the Baltic countries because they risk to lose it there. You just don't have the space to fight a mobile defense there as preferred by NATO.

The only country that could deliver help fast, is Poland. But Poland is on their way into a constitutional crisis and pis is currently blocking the designation of several crucial positions in their military.
Click to expand...
Not so sure about the last bit.
The PiS President, Duda, trying to protect two MPs from jail who were convicted of Abuse of Power who were pardoned by the President which the courts then overturned his pardon last summer (3 months before the election). The latest is the 2 being called up to do jail time.
Nobody much likes Russia in Poland anyway. Actions by Russia unify the policical parties like nothing else.
 
Yes but those are neither enough in numbers nor with their equipment to actually stop an attack. They are a commitment that on top of NATO contracts actual real soldiers of the respective countries would get harmed. But with a blockading Republican party and a potential second presidential reign of Trump, this is indeed doubtful. Also, as I said, NATO can't work efficiency in the small and highly densed area of the Baltics. It is a nightmare scenario but it doesn't help to deny these problems.
 
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