Russian invasion of Ukraine

Dage said:
we really don't know how Belarus will cooperate or participate.
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Well, we do know that Belarus hasn't directly supported even Ukraine, let alone an attack on Nato.

I think you're way off here; Putin has more than enough on his plate and there's zero chance of him expanding this war.
 
I hope the best guys but you just can't compare a fortress like Avdiivka that is under siege for most of the last 10 years with the Baltic states.
 
Dage said:
I hope the best guys but you just can't compare a fortress like Avdiivka that is under siege for most of the last 10 years with the Baltic states.
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British and American intelligence knows exactly what the Russians are doing, and if that point's to Russia attacking the Baltic states, then measures will be taken. I wouldn't particularly trust German intelligence, they didn't think Russia would invade Ukraine, while Britain and America got it spot on.
 
Dage said:
It's not that unrealistic unfortunately. With which forces could NATO react? A conventional attack will not get answered with nuclear weapons and the republicans don't support Europeans anymore.
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NATO has a rapid response units constantly available at all times, even in peace to mobilise rapidly. That's 40,000 strong with support vehicles. This has a back up of another 250,000 soldiers that would be readied as soon as satellites picked up Russian troops congregating. The airforce's of the UK, Germany, Poland, France and the US forces in Suffolk. All between 1 hour and 3 hours away. They would not have to fire on towns they would take out roads and railways before the Russians were even close.

You said
"The only country that could deliver help fast, is Poland. But Poland is on their way into a constitutional crisis and pis is currently blocking the designation of several crucial positions in their military."

Define fast? You dont just pile an army into boxes and transport them in seconds, it takes days to assemble them, more days to move them and all the time satellites are giving NATO their numbers, what equipment they have, what roads or railways are being prepared.
I don't know what you are trying to do but your not being very successful with understanding military assets.
 
I just don't like to ignore most of military pundits - European and American - who find these scenarios worth thinking about. Maybe you know so much more than them.
 
Dage said:
I just don't like to ignore most of military pundits - European and American - who find these scenarios worth thinking about. Maybe you know so much more than them.
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In fairness every military should have dozens of levels of plans in place, from worst to best case so its entirely possible Bild just got hold of the worst case and ran with it.

Its not out of the realms of possibility that Russia would attack a NATO country knowing the response would be non nuclear, knowing they would lose big time and use it to justify domestically the level of death seen in Ukraine, a sort of "we lost to NATO" rather than "We lost to Ukraine". its probably a lot more palatable to the domestic crowd.
 
Dage said:
I just don't like to ignore most of military pundits - European and American - who find these scenarios worth thinking about. Maybe you know so much more than them.
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I think you’ll find that there’s some posters on here that are far more informed/closer to the situations on geopolitical/military aspects of Russia/Ukraine than quite a lot of ‘pundits’.
@cleavers being one.
 
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