From "The Analyst":
RUSSIAN TANK PRODUCTION ACCELERATES
There is growing evidence that Russia is building a ‘new army’ largely of new recruits and new vehicles - many of them the latest versions of the T-90 or T-80BVM.
There is growing speculation that this army is being assembled for major offensive directed towards Kharkiv and/or Cherniv. Reopening an old front and potentially tipping the balance of the war.
Russian tank production analysed by Sweden suggests that the true Russian figure is nothing like the claims. They say 62 T-90M, 62 T-90/T-90A, 80 T-80BVM, 140 T-72B3 and 140 T-72B3M were delivered in 2023. That’s on top of around 1300 T-55/62 dragged out of scrap yards and put back into service as support artillery.
The quality of these various tank units can differ widely.
T-90M is a stripped back close support tank, whereas the T-90A is more of a modern general purpose fast moving blitz tank - not that there has been much call for such types lately. The T-72 versions are also more of a close support tank rather than an armoured spearhead type. The one with the greater level of multirole capabilities and the good ‘all rounder’ is the T-80BVM and it’s this the Russians are looking to restart construction of.
Any idea that the Armata T-14 will enter series production seems to have been abandoned, it’s just too troublesome and too expensive.
In total it looks like Russia really produced around 484-523 main battle tanks during 2023. However the Swedish analysts did suggest that could increase to around 700 this year and 1000 in 2025.
Russian aims are to have a tank parc of 2,500 at any one time, of all types, old and new. They see the rate of losses but think that with a combination of old and new, a sustainable number of 2,500 available is viable. Based on a figure of two tanks out of service keeps one in the field, the aim is to have around 850 combat ready at any one time.
Of course then it’s about how, where and when they’re deployed.
The question is what does Ukraine have to counter them and does such a force make a real difference?
I have no fear Ukraine has adequate weapons to deal with them. It really about how the Russians try to use them and if Ukraine has the means of dealing with their method of use
In the time and place they appear.
With Ukraine accepting that it’s now on the defensive for the whole of 2024 this year is going to be a tough slog. And I really don’t think it’s going to be pretty.
The fact that Russia is building a tank that’s barely changed in 40 years and doesn’t have the wherewithal to make anything better is one thing.
It’s how they’re used and defended from that will determine if they were worth the resources and costs.
www.forbes.com
