From "The Analyst":
RUSSIAN TACTICAL AIR FORCE UPDATE
Russian Tactical Aerospace Forces, or VKS, continues to burn through its fighter aircraft in the war against Ukraine. After two years of air war, its total force is slightly less than 75% of its prewar strength.
The VKS has directly lost approximately 16 fighters over the past eight months. However, this does not account for the imputed losses, which arise from an aircraft accruing more flight hours than planned, reducing its overall life. Based on updated available information, the VKS is on track to suffer approximately 60 imputed aircraft losses this year from overuse. That’s equivalent to losing 26 new aircraft of newer types. Meanwhile the Russian MoD currently procures only about 20 total Su-30, Su-34 and Su-35 aircraft per year, and even that is stretching believability under the current sanctions regime.
The air war has mostly maintained a steady state since mid-2023, with the exception of February 2024, when the VKS flew approximately 150 sorties per day in support of the Avdiivka offensive, proving decisive. Given that Russia also has been using longer-range glide bombs and devoted more aircraft to air-to-ground roles, the average sortie duration has also likely decreased, reducing the accelerated aging. Even so, slightly more than half of the tactical airframes are more than 30 years old; these have far fewer flight hours left.
This accelerated aging may be shaping Russian combat operations. The majority of VKS fighters operating (and lost) over Ukraine are the newer Su-30, Su-34 and Su-35 aircraft with occasional reported sightings of Su-25, but many of these were lost early on and they are very elderly.
The older MiG-31s and Su-27s have been relegated to supporting hypersonic Kinzhal strikes and air patrol at a distance. With an estimated average remaining airframe life of less than 20% and 35% respectively, these older aircraft can be used for this war, but likely have insufficient life to support Russia’s potential future air warfare needs.
Russia’s air-to-air warfare MiG-29s are totally absent, even from air-patrol missions. Given their age, these aircraft are likely unserviceable. Regardless, whether due to lack of upgrades, survivability or age, these are effectively non existent aircraft.
The Su-24s, on the other hand, were used extensively in the invasion of Ukraine. But there have been no reports of Su-24 losses so far in 2024. These aircraft are old with the newest models manufactured in 1993. The VKS may have chosen not to configure them for their new FAB-1500 glide bombs, which would also hint at the fact that the Su-24s may be reaching the end of their useful lives.
Ukraine, which is short on air defense munitions, has a few options to accelerate Russian air losses. Attacking air bases would likely reduce VKS sortie rates by more than 20% by disrupting operations and forcing them to fly from more distant bases. The greatest opportunity remains the effect of F-16’s (and possible Gripens) to divert Russian sorties from ground-attack to air-to-air efforts.
