Russian invasion of Ukraine

From "The Analyst":


You will remember last week the Ukrainians liberated the important delta island of Nostriga much to the upset of the invaders.
The Russians don’t have vast forces here so they had to strip the area facing Krynky - which they have struggled to deal with - to send troops south to the delta.
The Russians have had to cease using heavy armour because they don’t have enough of it in this area and Ukrainian drones are so dominant they have no chance of progressing even if they did.
The Ukrainians are also far better at drone-artillery coordination and now they are receiving shells they don’t have to hold back as much as they had been.
The failure of the Russian 18th Combined Arms Army in this section of the front resulted in the dismissal of its commander - an unusual occurrence as failure in Russia is often rewarded as long as you remain loyal to the czar.
The bizarre reality on the ground has had Russian forces repeatedly claim they have cleared Krynky when they never have. Their proof being the placement of flags. Even in Russia it seems you only get so many times to lie about a military success before having to answer for the reality.
This gave the Ukrainians the idea of using drones to plant flags on buildings and in the middle of open fields - knowing the Russians would have to remove them at any cost. So four attacks over a week and twenty dead Russians just to remove a flag.
The Ukrainians then rolled out the tactic and started putting flags on almost any high tower, building or crane to force the Russians to do something about them. Mostly they sent men to remove them, right into a trap. If not they end up using 1-3 FPV drones to do the job.
The tactic has proven so successful that Ukrainian forces in Chasiv Yar have started doing the same thing to encourage the invaders to take stupid risks and entrap them. They’re so obsessed with the flags and what they symbolise they can’t help themselves and attack every time, right into the jaws of the trap.
The significant part of Krynky and keeping the Russians endlessly on their toes here, is they have 75,000 troops based down on this front.
They’re often not the best trained or equipped, and certainly not the best supplied, but they’re better here from Ukraine’s perspective, than they are anywhere else causing more problems.
Elsehwere the Ukrainians seem to have caused a great deal of damage to the Belbeck airfield in Crimea last week. Satellite imagery now available shows that the entire aviation fuel supply system and tanks for the site were completely incinerated and at least half a dozen aircraft were destroyed. Craters in runaways and infrastructure damage is widespread and the airfield, which was vital for VKS support flights and glide bomb runs, is out of action.
Information on the state of oil refinery damage is coming through, showing that the essential cracking plant towers on three sites were destroyed along with multiple tanks of fuel. It’s these distillate cracking towers that really matter - without them the plant is basically useless.
The supply of artillery shells, has unquestionably started to make a difference. Russian forces are starting to face tougher challenges as a result of heavy artillery.
One of the bizarre positives for Ukraine about the shortage is that it enabled them to repair and refurbish many of the artillery pieces they were unable to use and these have started to return to action in an ‘as good as new’ state, improving their chances and accuracy.
Russia will not win!

Slava Ukraini !
From "The Analyst":


Ukrainians will begrudgingly admit that the Russians have learned a great deal.
They have become more open to opportunity when it presents itself on the frontlines, and capable of exploiting it when it materialises. Avdivka was a prime example of that.
However they often use old methods to make things happen and can be grotesquely wasteful of their manpower and material, under some impression that there’s simply loads more where that came from.
They have started a process of indoctrination and instilling religious fatalism in their new troops, to erase their fear of death and injury to make them more willing to fight for Putin’s distorted dreams of a Russian ‘Imperium Nova’.
Putin has assumed an almost Czar like quality - so much so that the Patriarch of Moscow at Putin’s recent inauguration, used the Russian for ‘Your Highness’. The trappings of the Imperial Past are everywhere. In many ways it’s like watching Franco
in fascist Spain, acting as everything was a monarchy while he wasn’t actually the king.
The introduction of new ministers and revised heads of the military and security services is just one more aspect of the way Putin will create a new, modernised soviet system of governance and production. Only this time trying to encourage innovation - never easy in any autocracy that doesn’t like free thinking - and promote those who will operate its new ideas and systems.
The age old problem is that it’s much harder to get older minds to do your biding than younger ones who know no different. That’s why it’s become so vital to change education and begin the process of indoctrination at school - the next generation will know the system and how to use it willingly for their own good and that of the motherland.
The only country that has remained reasonably open but has achieved such totality of control over information and surveillance is China. Those technologies and policies are slowly being introduced into Russia.
The Putin view is that he will oversee a transformation in Russia that will use its oil to buy its future and prop up its economy one way or the other. He believes - I would say he knows in his heart if it’s still there - that the west will fail to support Ukraine to the end. And he believes absolutely we will eventually tire of the war and so will Ukraine. He will win and then after a few years of rebuilding, he will sweep in and take the rest, having learned from the mistakes of the past.
China and Russia are playing the long game. Iran too. They know the rules are different if they make them so. Given time they know the west will tire of the cost and the threat.
Russia will learn, as Iran, Cuba and N.Korea have, to live with sanctions and get around them. In many ways they create an autarky that can be fairly liberating for a dictatorship. Life may not be perfect under such conditions but they’re rarely fatal. Once your acceptance of the situation becomes clear, it’s difficult for your opponents to impact you in any meaningful way. With China having access to almost anything Russia wants, and sophisticated pathways into restricted access products and services through complex third and fourth party arrangements, long term if the government can survive so will their people.
Training the military and the population to live with it is the aim. With no means of opposing it and no information to base that opposition on, acquiescence is inevitable.
The State and the nation are therefore ready for the endless state of war it will take to win.
The Soviet’s thought the same. So did the governments they controlled. China is not Russia. Putin cannot last forever. His successor may have a very different view.
But for now we have to be the ones to prove him wrong.

Good news this I think.
The US is in the throws of doing somthing even more dramatic - it was part of the Ukraine funding bill
Hope the UK follows suite
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here they are clearing houses on the outskirts of Chasiv Yar from the perspective of a fighter in the International Legion of Ukraine: Witness the courage and dedication in the defense of Ukraine
Cleaning up the mess after the battle heroes all of them. The video just shows them arriving to make sure no Russians are in the property
Brave Men!
BTW, that's a Colombian accent!
I distinctly remember all of the Trolls saying that their experience "Fighting Guerrillas and Narco's in the Jungle would not translate to a conventional war," but they missed something
these hardened veterans now know where they're getting shot from, and the enemy is not disguised as a civilians but clearly identifiable. That makes a world of difference! Also, the whole team looks cohesive and organized. He shouts in English to the overall members and in Spanish to "Mora" which is a common Latin American surname. God Bless the Foreign Legion of Ukraine
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