Russian invasion of Ukraine

From "The Analyst":

RUSSIA STILL ISN’T WINNING

As Ukrainian drones destroy a Russian ICBM warning radar that can also see ATACMS launches from Ukraine, and strike Russian airfields with confirmed hits on several aircraft, China surrounds Taiwan and begins an outrageous propaganda campaign demanding war.
The world it seems sits on an almost permanent knife edge, never quite knowing what will happen next.
The grinding progress of Russian activity with losses that are simply mind numbing, is costing them vast amounts for minimal gain. And all this while Ukraine has been almost at its weakest since the war started.
With vast amounts of aid now flowing for the US and the other allies, Russian progress is going to get slower and any progress more costly.
The loss of key strategic sites in Crimea to missile and drone attacks as well as command and control sites, have shocked the Russian military.
Ukrainian targeting of the refineries has been devastating to Russian oil production processing diesel and petrol supplies. It’s making life far more expensive in Russia for fuel.
Russia is in the ludicrous position of exporting crude oil and having to import refined oil products at huge expense.
It’s not all gone Ukraine’s way. The Russians have advanced even if it’s a small distance overall. Its power grid and generation systems are at just 30% - most energy is now imported from Poland and Romania. Zelensky’s legal term in office expired on May 20th and Russia is already using that as a propaganda weapon, despite the Ukrainian constitution allowing such a situation.
Ukraine’s finances are a mess, it’s almost totally dependent on western fiscal manoeuvres and support. The bill to rebuild the country just grows every day - fast approaching $1 trillion.
Oddly Russia and Ukraine are spending about 35% of their state budgets on the war. But Russia’s economy is overheating and burning up resources. Meanwhile the west is spending barely 0.5% of its GDP on the war and slow rolling industrial production to fight Russia through Ukraine.
Overall Russia is loosing and has less time to waste. It’s not getting anywhere fast enough - and its economy is likely to melt down faster than it can replace its vast losses.
This war will be about degradation and opportunity. Russian forces just don’t have the equipment they had and they can’t build it fast enough. The pendulum of war is moving slowly back to Ukraine - by 2025 Russia will have started the slippery road to defeat.
 

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