From "The Analyst":
VOVCHANSK COUNTER OFFENSIVE
According to ISW the total number of Russian forces active on the Kharkiv front is around 14,000 while some 38,000 Ukrainians are now in opposition.
The situation in Vovchansk remains complicated for both sides but little by little the Ukrainians are getting the upper hand.
The Ukrainians have repaired the dam road crossing with a pontoon bridge, likely to lead to yet another attack by the Russians, but there may be air defences locally now.
This repair allows them to move more quickly from Kharkiv to Vovchansk.
The Ukrainian forces began massing at a strategic point about 5km SE of Vovchansk called Bilahorordius.
These forces have been feeding a continuous Ukrainian effort to push back against the Russians in Vovchansk and there is talk of them simply not being able to sustain their operations - some say the Russians will have to pull back to survive, but we’ll have to see, they usually prefer to die in vast numbers before giving up - unless they flee because the situation becomes untenable.
Ukrainian drones and artillery have been playing havoc with the Russians and their supply lines, let alone their positions in the town. It seems the Ukrainian artillery shortage is very much over.
Russian and Ukrainian channels are both admitting that the Russians are now on the defensive. This has got to be that make or break point for the Russians. They can either fight on and bring in reinforcements or, while they still can, withdraw after claiming they had ‘achieved their objectives’. If not they risk a defeat.
Ukraine is doing the right thing. This initial attack in this area, if it can be contained and even eradicated, restores the border zone and will seriously undermine any attempts the Russians make anywhere else to break out. It should also not be forgotten that the longer this takes the Ukrainians have more time to prepare defences on the rest of the northern and north eastern borders.
The Russians are still preparing a summer offensive. Another note to that is they are losing around 24,000 men a month but recruiting as many as 30,000 on high-bonus contracts, so their overall manpower pool is still increasing.
For now, in Vovchansk, the Ukrainians seem to have seized the initiative and they have the Russians on the back foot, a little taken aback at the speed and scale of Ukrainian resistance - and very pissed off that the American aid is making so much difference so quickly.
They launched this attack early and risked their unpreparedness to get as much done before the aid became effective. And it hasn’t worked.
I have to put myself in Russian shoes and look at this from command perspective. It’s gone wrong, it’s that simple. This is not what was supposed to happen. Again the ‘whatever is in the box’ reality has come home to roost. The forces and resources granted for this action have been largely exhausted. Where is the reserve? Where is the back up?
I have noted in the past that Russian commanders are very reluctant to admit they need more than they have been given, it’s almost the worst thing you can do, turn around and ask for more because you appear to have failed. That puts them in a position where they don’t ask at all and fail or they ask too late and fail.
If the strategic objective here was to
aid in the battle for Kupiansk, it’s failed. In fact it’s on the cusp of becoming an embarrassment. So the Russians have a choice to make.
Either withdraw and retain some propaganda dignity while they can, or double down hard. It really depends on what their strategic goals have now become. Because this clearly isn’t working and looks like it’s going in the wrong direction.
Excellent Ukrainian operational planning, an outstanding piece of staff work, planning and operational implementation to turn this around.
They have put the Russians in a strategic bind. The distraction operation has become the main event - always a mistake - now they have choices to make they never planned for.
Slava Ukraini !
