From "The Analyst":
RUSSIANS DESPERATE IN VOVCHANSK: COMBAT DEATHS MOUNT
Russian forces have poured men into Vovchansk over the course of the campaign, forcing them to endure a difficult crossing of open land to even reach the suburbs of the town.
You may recall from an earlier briefing how the Russians had adapted Ukrainian tactics of small groups of 4/5 men to infiltrate positions in the town, then bring four or five of those groups together, so that they could engage in superior numbers, in places that would knock the defenders off guard.
The problem with this tactic is it requires training and coordination, which are usually provided by secure radios (still rare amongst Russian troops) and friendly drone observation - again not a strong feature of Russian tactical operations. The training comes in when positional awareness and trust in your unit having worked together creates a homogenous force.
Take these elements away, poor comms, no drones and poor training and you see how things can go awry.
Groups don’t join up, get isolated and taken out. Casualty rates spike and morale plummets.
Lack of training is shocking. One of the over-weekend videos shows a Russian Storm-Z soldier attacked by an FPV drone that fails to detonate. Rather than leave it alone he beats it with a stick and it detonates killing him.
Another video shows a Russian capture saying that of 100 men in his unit that began operations using the tactics described, only 12 were left by the end of the day. They complain of heartless officers who just demand that they move forward no matter the cost, using motivational words such as ‘you’re all going to die here anyway, so make a good job of it’.
Yet another began as a group of 48 and only 6 survived- they surrendered rather than face going back and be made to attack again.
Indeed one of the unusual aspects of Vovchansk has been the unusual level of surrenders.
Even the Ukrainian General Staff stated that they had never seen such losses before in one section of the front. Vovchansk alone counted 1,784 dead Russians in a single day.
That’s the best part of two battalion tactical groups.
Just bare in mind that the total initial
attacking force for the Russian offensive against Kharkiv oblast was 50,000. That’s a 3.6% loss rate per day. At that rate if sustained everyone would be dead in 28 days. That explains why so many reinforcements have had to be drawn from other operations.
At what point do the Russians decide the cost outweighs the benefits? It seems that they don’t. Orders are orders and men will simply have to die.
Add to that the attacks behind the lines on their logistics and supplies, this entire Russian campaign has been a tactical and strategic mess from the start. A sinkhole of failure and death.
This persistent belief that throwing thousands of lives to the slaughter will miraculously break the defences is now at WW1 proportions.
In 1917 exhortations to make one more stand and sacrifice lives lead to mutiny and revolution. They had no ideals or principles or leaders to fight for worth their lives. In WW2 they at least had a cause and an enemy they loathed - as well as barrier troops preventing retreats. Now they have no motivation, but still face barrier troops. It’s a Russian army terrified of its own soldiers that uses its own men to kill those who don’t obey, where they stand. Welcome to Putin’s new world order.
Slava Ukraini!
