From "The Analyst":
BAD TO WORSE FOR RUSSIANS
Vovchansk is turning into a nightmare for the Russians they can’t wake up from.
Heavy fighting has continued, with the Russians getting increasingly desperate to regain some control over the situation.
It’s become so intense that over the space of a few hours between around 22.00 and 0100, they are dropping as many as 30 massive glide bombs each night. These are the only means they have of holding back the Ukrainians. Russian forces are almost totally reliant on infantry now.
Around 200-400 Russians are now completely surrounded in the basement of the aggregate plant, hoping to last long enough to be rescued, without being fully aware that that’s now even less likely to happen with every passing day.
Ukraine has established heavy machine gun positions that prevent any attempt by the Russians to reach the isolated pocket.
The Russians have deployed two units of Chechens from the school buildings they control to try and break through from the slither of land they hold to the west by the river. They have failed to make any progress.
The two sides are now busy trying to outmanoeuvre each other in the city before the other succeeds.
The Russians appear to be trying to push south in order to engage the three bridges and prevent Ukrainian supplies coming north.
Meanwhile the Ukrainian forces are trying to push into the corner where the Russian controlled streets going south meet the streets they hold in the northernmost sector going east, in an attempt to cut the Russians off from their supplies and isolate the whole southward facing group.
The key line that would separate the Russians from their main forces is Korolanka Street.
The Russian bombing has been successful in creating limited areas to take shelter - but it’s also been detrimental to their own forces for the same reason, and the Ukrainians observed several incidents of the Russians hitting their own positions - glide bombs can be inaccurate and the time from launch to arrival things can change at the target.
The fighting is so intense it’s become a floor by floor, room by room level of combat, often each side is just two to five meters away from each other. It’s a level of intensity not seen since battles like Stalingrad and Berlin in WW2.
Somehow the Ukrainians have managed to advance west along Korolanka Street by as much as 250m - Russian drone footage actually confirms this advance.
The Ukrainians are just 100m away from establishing fire control over the Russians already tenuous supply lines and cutting off the Chechens and others in an even larger pocket.
The Ukrainians are using now ample
supplies of shells to strike the Russians and follow these up with GBU-39 precision JDAMS. They seem to have complete control over the EW environment and their drones are a scourge the Russians have no counter to.
On their side the Russians use more FPV drones trying to cripple the Ukrainian vehicles providing supply.
One of the very notable realities is that the GBU-39 bombs are incredibly accurate, and this accuracy can be critical in such a contested environment. Whatever the problem with the bombs in the past was that stopped their use - believed to be GPS related - has now been fixed.
The key to any Ukrainian success is largely down to their domination in the EW field, permitting wide ranging reconnaissance of Russian rear areas all the way over the border.
Any attempt the Russians make to resupply day or night, the Ukrainians are there to stop them.
Post war it will be fascinating to understand if the Russians had EW kit that’s simply not working or can’t be placed far enough forward to be of use, or they just don’t have any to deploy, so effective has the policy of attrition at all costs against such units actually been.
Looking forward it’s pretty clear that should the Ukrainian army cut the Russians off for a second time, and push the Russians further north and even out of Vovchansk, it will be a turning point. CONTINUES…
CONTINUES…
There’s nowhere to hide or easily defend north of the town - the only real defence is to withdraw in as orderly a way as the Russians can.
Despite the effort to build trenches and defensive positions, the Ukrainians harassed the construction teams so badly that they eventually gave up, so nothing has been achieved.
It’s too early to claim victory but you can almost sniff it on the winds of change. This front is going badly for Russia.
On the wider frontlines there have been some minor setbacks.
Ukrainians defending the NW Avdivka front have been pushed back far enough to place a key road, the
E45, inside Russian artillery range. It’s been closed to the public, but it’s a crucial artery behind Ukrainian lines, supplying large areas of the front. It’s an area everyone is watching with concern.
There are also indications the Russians are planning another operation south of Kupiansk towards Kremina, along that front.
Overall the Karkiv situation is bad for Russia, hard for Ukraine but they do have the initiative and the motivation.
Weapons are arriving continuously now, and most areas say the artillery shortages have been eradicated.
The Czech initiative is said to be in full swing delivering around 100,000 shells a month. Western artillery manufacturers have started to reach their targets as production ramps up.
In one other bizarre case of overreaction - Russian forces launched attacks against the Antonovsky bridge after a Ukrainian woman from the occupied side managed to cross it to freedom, clambering through the wreckage in broad daylight.
That seems to prove the Russians don’t have troops in the south end of the bridge because of Ukrainian drone and artillery strikes, but neither do the Ukrainians because of the Russian attacks. That pretty much confirms that the south bank is a no-go area for both sides, a situation that extends for a good 30km each way.
Cautious optimism! That’s the way to look at things right now.
Slava Ukraini !
