Russian invasion of Ukraine

“With Biden out, the spectacularly incompetent Jake Sullivan must be fired.The Russia appeasement policy Sullivan espoused turned what would have been Ukraine's victory into a Forever War for the USA.For a change, hire a National Security Advisor who knows national security“
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President Biden is recommending the V P. Harris and as long as it keeps the 81yr old Trump out, something has to change in America I think it will
 
From ‘The Analyst’ (Military & Strategic) X: MilStratOnX

STRATEGIC LONG VIEW
1/2
As it stands at present the Russians are making progress in very small amounts on a wide front. These gains are coming at huge costs in manpower as the searing casualty figures show. Daily Russian death rates are running at around 1000-1300.
Losses of Russian machinery have been high, running at about 4:1 against Ukrainian losses. They absolutely do not have the means to replace the soviet era stockpiles and as an example of that, it’s now believed that the most numerous tank in the field is now the T-62 - a variant as old as I am. Indeed video of trains carrying more of these lightly refurbished machines to the front was recently published.
Those at the front and in refurb are already the end of the line for this tank, as satellite images of their long term storage sites show over 90% have been used up and the remaining ones will be little more than scrap. This is indicative of the general state of Russian main line machinery.
We know Russia has a chronic artillery problem- one of the reasons the FAB bombs have become so vital to them. Around 80% of the pre-war SPG and mobile artillery has been destroyed or rendered unusable by barrel wear. The barrel issue is a profound one that affects both sides, but it’s known that the Russians have no replacements.
The only factory that made them has last received Austrian made forging machines in 2017, and the parts and materials let alone the software support for calibration haven’t been available since 2022.
The 60 year old D-30 122mm artillery dragged out of reserve has a low barrel life and by all accounts, only announces it has a problem when the barrel explodes destroying the whole unit.
The Russians have been so determined to press the Ukrainian lines along the whole front this summer because they know Ukraine cannot defend on such a scale. They believe by taking land they will force a negotiated settlement. This has meant they have been prepared to thrown into service units that haven’t fully reconstituted and face the enemy with wounded soldiers. As a recent officer video demonstrated, the paperwork says he has a brigade of 18,000 men, but he only has 6,000 - the other 12,000 are already dead.
He wonders how many other units are like this.
So the Russians use up manpower as fast as they get it, in order to push their only clear advantage.
That advantage is not going to last. It’s unsustainable in terms of unit quality when you eventually have to stop attacking. What will be left is a bunch of half starved under trained inexperienced low morale troops with high injury rates, even as winter approaches.
Meanwhile Ukraine claims that the official numbers for the mobilisation law have made 4.7 million men available for conscription. 150,000 are under training and equipping to put into the line in the coming months. Replacements for losses can now be called up as needed. That will allow many of the sorely pressed forces to get a break and permit the opportunity to train new recruits with experienced ones.
At the same time it will add a whole mass of fresh troops into a line facing some of the most vulnerable and exhausted Russians ever fielded.
There is therefore a balance of opportunity coming in the next few months where finally Russian troops are numerically superior - that will never change - but not even slightly capable of making the gains they have been. They may even face some kind of low key counter offensive in areas they are most vulnerable.
Because sooner or later the F-16’s will make themselves felt. If they can begin the process of pushing away the glide bomb delivery aircraft and challenging the Russian air dominance, then the loss of Russian artillery will become extremely significant- because they don’t have what they used to, and it will reduce their ability to suppress Ukrainian operations.
Drones will remain a dominant and all pervading issue - both sides have very good systems that have made deep inroads into each other’s equipment. CONTINUES…
CONTINUES…2/2
Nothing is invulnerable, from the M-1 Abrams to the giant Russian M-STA series of SPG’s miles behind the lines.
Time is the issue now. Who can change the frontlines before the US elections in November? On January 20th the new president is sworn in. Whoever that might be. And that will change the political and military landscape one way or another. Russia is relying on it. It puts pressure on Ukraine to be seen to be winning- something, anything because America loves a winner. Russia will be desperate to prove it cannot be beaten on the battlefield no matter the chronic state of its forces.
I believe next year if allowed to run its course, and Ukraine is given more aid and the US and Europe can remain supportive, is the year the tide turns. The Russian army can’t sustain a defence like it did in 2023. It has too many vulnerabilities and its manpower may be great but its quality is very poor. Without machinery to back weak manpower up, it is far weaker than it’s ever been. With the skies cleared of bomb dropping aircraft - or at the least reduced significantly say by 70%, Ukraine stands a chance. The bombs are ideal when you are the attacker, as a defender they are far more problematic and don’t serve the same purpose, even more so if in open ground where defences are light and mobility is even partially restored.
I do believe a turning point can be reached - it’s the political will that’s required now. It’s not simply about America sustaining ammo or vehicle supplies. If Trumps lot get in that will end support for StarLink, intelligence sharing and spy satellites. All vital aspects of the conflict Ukraine can’t do without. Europe can’t make up for those key components on the scale the US possesses.
America will decide the general way this war goes. But it may be faced with a Europe not so willing to toe the line and Ukraine just as much so. It won’t be easy, but it’s actually not impossible the Americans will be faced with a Europe not so keen to listen to what it has to say anymore.
That is a situation of its making. For the most part Europe knows this war is about its own survival. It won’t be willing to stand aside and see itself humiliated and put at risk for the vanity of an American president most of it would despise if asked. It’s come too far and done too much to change to see it wasted.
Ukraine matters, Ukraine must win. No matter what America thinks.

‘The Analyst’ MilStratOnX
Slava Ukraini !
 
Scottyboi said:
From ‘The Analyst’ (Military & Strategic) X: MilStratOnX

STRATEGIC LONG VIEW
1/2
As it stands at present the Russians are making progress in very small amounts on a wide front. These gains are coming at huge costs in manpower as the searing casualty figures show. Daily Russian death rates are running at around 1000-1300.
Losses of Russian machinery have been high, running at about 4:1 against Ukrainian losses. They absolutely do not have the means to replace the soviet era stockpiles and as an example of that, it’s now believed that the most numerous tank in the field is now the T-62 - a variant as old as I am. Indeed video of trains carrying more of these lightly refurbished machines to the front was recently published.
Those at the front and in refurb are already the end of the line for this tank, as satellite images of their long term storage sites show over 90% have been used up and the remaining ones will be little more than scrap. This is indicative of the general state of Russian main line machinery.
We know Russia has a chronic artillery problem- one of the reasons the FAB bombs have become so vital to them. Around 80% of the pre-war SPG and mobile artillery has been destroyed or rendered unusable by barrel wear. The barrel issue is a profound one that affects both sides, but it’s known that the Russians have no replacements.
The only factory that made them has last received Austrian made forging machines in 2017, and the parts and materials let alone the software support for calibration haven’t been available since 2022.
The 60 year old D-30 122mm artillery dragged out of reserve has a low barrel life and by all accounts, only announces it has a problem when the barrel explodes destroying the whole unit.
The Russians have been so determined to press the Ukrainian lines along the whole front this summer because they know Ukraine cannot defend on such a scale. They believe by taking land they will force a negotiated settlement. This has meant they have been prepared to thrown into service units that haven’t fully reconstituted and face the enemy with wounded soldiers. As a recent officer video demonstrated, the paperwork says he has a brigade of 18,000 men, but he only has 6,000 - the other 12,000 are already dead.
He wonders how many other units are like this.
So the Russians use up manpower as fast as they get it, in order to push their only clear advantage.
That advantage is not going to last. It’s unsustainable in terms of unit quality when you eventually have to stop attacking. What will be left is a bunch of half starved under trained inexperienced low morale troops with high injury rates, even as winter approaches.
Meanwhile Ukraine claims that the official numbers for the mobilisation law have made 4.7 million men available for conscription. 150,000 are under training and equipping to put into the line in the coming months. Replacements for losses can now be called up as needed. That will allow many of the sorely pressed forces to get a break and permit the opportunity to train new recruits with experienced ones.
At the same time it will add a whole mass of fresh troops into a line facing some of the most vulnerable and exhausted Russians ever fielded.
There is therefore a balance of opportunity coming in the next few months where finally Russian troops are numerically superior - that will never change - but not even slightly capable of making the gains they have been. They may even face some kind of low key counter offensive in areas they are most vulnerable.
Because sooner or later the F-16’s will make themselves felt. If they can begin the process of pushing away the glide bomb delivery aircraft and challenging the Russian air dominance, then the loss of Russian artillery will become extremely significant- because they don’t have what they used to, and it will reduce their ability to suppress Ukrainian operations.
Drones will remain a dominant and all pervading issue - both sides have very good systems that have made deep inroads into each other’s equipment. CONTINUES…
CONTINUES…2/2
Nothing is invulnerable, from the M-1 Abrams to the giant Russian M-STA series of SPG’s miles behind the lines.
Time is the issue now. Who can change the frontlines before the US elections in November? On January 20th the new president is sworn in. Whoever that might be. And that will change the political and military landscape one way or another. Russia is relying on it. It puts pressure on Ukraine to be seen to be winning- something, anything because America loves a winner. Russia will be desperate to prove it cannot be beaten on the battlefield no matter the chronic state of its forces.
I believe next year if allowed to run its course, and Ukraine is given more aid and the US and Europe can remain supportive, is the year the tide turns. The Russian army can’t sustain a defence like it did in 2023. It has too many vulnerabilities and its manpower may be great but its quality is very poor. Without machinery to back weak manpower up, it is far weaker than it’s ever been. With the skies cleared of bomb dropping aircraft - or at the least reduced significantly say by 70%, Ukraine stands a chance. The bombs are ideal when you are the attacker, as a defender they are far more problematic and don’t serve the same purpose, even more so if in open ground where defences are light and mobility is even partially restored.
I do believe a turning point can be reached - it’s the political will that’s required now. It’s not simply about America sustaining ammo or vehicle supplies. If Trumps lot get in that will end support for StarLink, intelligence sharing and spy satellites. All vital aspects of the conflict Ukraine can’t do without. Europe can’t make up for those key components on the scale the US possesses.
America will decide the general way this war goes. But it may be faced with a Europe not so willing to toe the line and Ukraine just as much so. It won’t be easy, but it’s actually not impossible the Americans will be faced with a Europe not so keen to listen to what it has to say anymore.
That is a situation of its making. For the most part Europe knows this war is about its own survival. It won’t be willing to stand aside and see itself humiliated and put at risk for the vanity of an American president most of it would despise if asked. It’s come too far and done too much to change to see it wasted.
Ukraine matters, Ukraine must win. No matter what America thinks.

‘The Analyst’ MilStratOnX
Slava Ukraini !
Click to expand...
If Trump pulls everything I think Europe and NATO may well shun the orange man, they will start doing stuff without him and fuck the consequences, it their homes and families etc that are been threatened. I can see summits without America even been invited we will have to get tough with his attitude, he will probably have a civil war to contend with anyway.
 
Blue Maverick said:
If Trump pulls everything I think Europe and NATO may well shun the orange man, they will start doing stuff without him and fuck the consequences, it their homes and families etc that are been threatened. I can see summits without America even been invited we will have to get tough with his attitude, he will probably have a civil war to contend with anyway.
Click to expand...
Trump can't pull everything and piss the Europeans off
The US arms industry needs to sell, and after its own nation, Europe, as a whole, must be the largest customer
 
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