From ‘The Analyst’ (Military & Strategic) X: MilStratOnX
RUSSIA PUSHES RUSSIA RETREATS
It’s a mixed bag of news this morning.
The bad news is the Russians have made a huge effort to push forward at Pokrovsk - a strategic logistics supply town that’s been key for the Ukrainian central front.
The situation suddenly intensified even causing General Syrskyi to issue a statement to that effect.
It is as usual, a massive infantry operation backed up by artillery and glide bombs. Opsec is important here but we should have new mapping today.
Meanwhile in the Vovchansk Sector, the Ukrainians launched a counter offensive against the Staritsya sector to the west of the city.
Russian forces have been slowly siphoned off from this area as they were drawn into the battle for Vovchansk itself, so it has been relatively lightly protected by a handful of Russian units.
The Ukrainian Shamen Battalion has undertaken the operation which requires intense operations in woodlands. Once they break through it will act as the western part of a pincer that combined with an eastern operation from Teke will put Vovchansk at risk of being encircled and force a Russian withdrawal -
Potentially collapsing the entire front.
The Staritsya operation went remarkably smoothly, with the Shamen pushing through the woodland and eradicating any defenders quickly. They were in the village at surprising speed and the Russian resistance just crumbled away, leaving it in Ukrainian hands.
This should enable them to push through the next layer of forest and press the Russians in the approaches to Vovchansk from the west.
The Russians did have one more vindictive act to perform however, they blew up a small dam to destroy a river crossing point on the road that traversed it.
Overall a good operation but the Russians are still pressing hard in other areas to gain ground while they try and persuade everyone they want peace talks.
The talk of peace forced others to respond and Zelensky did so, suggesting that some territory concessions could be made - such as the original Luhansk/Donetsk occupied regions, some of Zaporhizia, in return for Crimea and the remainder of Kherson. However the very idea of this went down like a lead balloon in Ukraine and it’s regarded that any such deal would need a referendum, as Zelensky doesn’t have the political authority (he’s way past the re-election date because of the war), left to push it through. If the war ended this way with Ukraine given immediate membership in NATO, it might stand a chance - but without any security guarantees of such a nature Ukraine is unlikely to back such a plan.
Russia is getting desperate. It’s pushing Ukraine hard before the situation starts to change and the tide turns. Its economy is struggling under the weight of sanctions - they might not be affecting Russians citizens n the street but they are hammering industry and business, especially the financial sector. The Russian Ruble as national currency is virtually dead to anyone outside of the country. New restrictions on Russian ‘shadow’ fleet oil tankers being banned from European waters on pain of arrest will only aggravate the situation. These ships have no insurance and are often as much as 30 years old, dangerously high risk and poorly maintained. Ownership is often murky or camouflaged and they are all past the point of being scrapped. Tankers have a safe life of only 20 years. But these rusting hulks are shipping some $50 billion a year in Russian oil around the world at high risk to the environment.
The war meanwhile rumbles on …
‘The Analyst’ MilStratOnX
Slava Ukraini !
