Russian invasion of Ukraine

From ‘The Analyst’ (Military & Strategic) X: MilStratOnX

RUSSIANS STRIKE AT VUHLEDAR

So much of the eastern front is dependent upon a number of key logistics routes - some rail, but principally roads. The open terrain that controls the crucial southeastern corner of the front, between Konstantinivka and Vuhledar, both of which have been the repeated focus of major Russian failed operations to take them - depend on a single road that runs in a straight line for over 50km between the two: the T0524.
If they can cut this the position for both towns worsens because the Ukrainian forces will lose any lateral communication line to transfer forces and supplies up and down the front in support of either town, or to prevent a further breakthrough. Ukraine obviously knows this and they have been assiduously defending it for two years.
The Russians decided to pile on the pressure here again in addition to everything else they’ve been doing, in an effort to find a weak spot Ukraine can’t defend.
The Ukrainians have been careful not to loose what little air superiority they have in this area by systematically eliminating every anti-air system they can find, leaving the Russians without air defences. An entire S-300 system was wiped out using HIMARS cluster munitions even as the operation began.
The Russians and Ukrainians began an operation around Konstantinivka the same day, Ukraine pushing south of the town going east while the Russians pushed north of it heading west. The Ukrainian plan was to disrupt the Russian attack which they managed to do, as they aimed to clear important tree line defences.
Drones played a major role for both sides, but especially for the Ukrainians who targeted Russian supply trucks relentlessly ensuring they couldn’t support the frontline operation.
However the Russians moved in turn to disrupt the Ukrainians by attacking further south against the T054 and the made rapid advances that alarmed many. The Russians carried out one of their ‘spike’ attacks, using a number of vehicles, many of which were lost, until they managed to get one to interdict the road itself.
The Ukrainian General Staff admitted the attacks had taken place and they were doing their best to defend from them.
The battles continue to rage - both sides know their significance and neither side wants to lose - Vuhledar has been a symbol of Ukrainian resistance for years now.
Yet again relentless Russian attacks that cost it dearly in men and machines have rested the situation. Most of the machines have been lost and yet again the men are in thick of it, casualties mounting. Some reports say that Russia has lost so many MT-LB type APC’s that the type is in effect, extinct. They started the war with thousands of them.
Russia is struggling to maintain this many offensive operations almost as much as Ukraine is struggling to defend from them.
There’s no question that the Russian strategy is one designed to overwhelm almost everywhere and breakthrough something to make a decisive move. The effort it’s taking is pushing them to breaking point.
There is an historical analogy in the German offensive Operation Michael of 1918. This was a massive operation that went from March 1918 through to September - and it came within a hairs breath of collapsing the allied forces after the Germans piled every last resources they had into the front- the trenches were broken, Paris was endangered and it took huge self control and thoughtfulness for the British and French forces, which were almost exhausted to hold the onslaught back. The Germans were their own worst enemy in the end. They over extended themselves, the operation was too great and too quick and had too many objectives. Parts stalled and parts moved too far. Eventually it exhausted itself and allied forces including Americans, counter attacked. The balloon popped. The German collapse began and the retreat was rapid. Soon they were well behind their start lines. It was the end. On November 11th Germany surrendered. CONT…
CONT…The allies bent like a reed, somehow despite their near collapse, French leadership and British unflappability managed to avoid a near disastrous collapse that would have seen the Germans win the war. Ukraine is having to do the same now. American and allied aid is getting in, reserves are being built up, Russia is acting out its front-wide gambit. It knows this is its last fling before the tide turns. Ukraine too must bend but not snap, eventually these Russian attacks will be broken and they will cease, they cannot go on at this pace for ever.

‘The Analyst’ MilStratOnX
SLAVA UKRAINI !
 
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