Russian invasion of Ukraine

From ‘The Analyst’ (Military & Strategic) X: MilStratOnX

RUSSIAN PROGRESS CONTINUES

Chasiv Yar remains a major objective, but the Russians, suffering from extremely effective Ukrainian partisan and guerrilla operations in their rear, have been forced to make changes.
The attacks on supply lines have apparently been so successful that major rail infrastructure has been destroyed, causing ammunition and supply issues at the front. These rear operations backed up by HIMARS strikes on key supply points have in effect forced a change of plan, and possibly a detrimental one to the Ukrainians. War can sometimes lead to unintended consequences.
The Russian plan to attack Chasiv Yar was clearly - we can tell from their force build up, a north and south of the town assault over the canal in a westward direction.
Lacking the capacity to do that because of the shortages caused by the partisan actions, they decided to take the initiative and widen their control of the canal line northward - against weaker Ukrainian forces still east of the canal and south of a small but important village. This area was not as heavily defended as it might have been and the Ukrainian forces have withdrawn by over 2km in a couple of days and look to be set to pull back further - extending the Russian control over the canal’s eastern bank and giving them more opportunities to cross it north of Chasiv Yar. That will enable them to come down from the north against the city without having to launch a debilitating attack against the main canal defences in the suburbs.
In other developments the continued ability of long range Russian spy drones that loiter, looking for something to happen well behind the lines, keeps paying off.
A recent video confirms a Russian drone spied an MLRS launcher having just fired off half its rounds. It then tracked the launcher some distance back to a secret operating base, watched it refuel and then saw it enter a hangar type shed on a farm - presumably where it was reloading with missiles. Just minutes later an Iskander-M ballistic missile detonates the whole site - the level of secondary and tertiary explosions clearly indicating its importance to supporting these systems. A loss Ukraine could well do without. Clearly the Russians have cleaned up and maximised the efficiency of the strategic spy drone operations and their links to near instantaneous launches of Iskander. These have a very short flight time allowing the same drone to acquire and observe the destruction of the target.
The frontline continues to be a highly stressed situation from north to south - another major breakthrough in the southern sector of the northern front has another Russian spike attack just 5km from from the Oskil river in a matter of days. Pokrovsk remains exceptionally difficult. To be blunt, and this applies across the whole front, I don’t think the Ukrainians have the means to defend it all. The Russians may be using vast numbers of men inefficiently but they are sufficient to overwhelm in so many places all at once, that to call the situation ‘challenging’ is something of a polite understatement.
The question is can Russia keep it up? Can Ukraine bend like a reed? If Ukraine has a reserve force available it’s getting very close to the point it needs deploying decisively. If it doesn’t then we’re going to see some major territory losses in the coming weeks. Right now a couple of hundred Bradley’s and some F-16’s would be a welcome sight.

‘The Analyst’ MilStratOnX
Slava Ukraini !
 
Scottyboi said:
From ‘The Analyst’ (Military & Strategic) X: MilStratOnX

RUSSIAN INCOMPETENCE STRIKES AGAIN

Russian forces have long suffered from an inability to communicate properly between ground units and with air forces.
Coordinated operations are often nonexistent. Partly that’s down to the lack of experience in the field, poor or no radio equipment, inexperienced staff officers and a lack of NCO grades in the field to correct mistakes and retain discipline when something goes wrong. Russian forces don’t work well with initiative, expecting to be directed from a distance.
Another prime example of this occurred at Hybolke in the western Kharkiv sector.
The Ukrainian forces here have managed to push their way back into the village despite Russian attempts to stop them.
It has been something of a swings and roundabouts campaign, with both sides gaining and loosing territory. This time it was Ukraine’s turn to push deep into the village.
The Ukrainians recaptured an agricultural centre and the land around it. On the other side of the village at night, they use their superior night vision and armoured vehicles to press Russian forces and find weaknesses.
The Russians have moved the reconstituted 155th Naval Infantry from the southern front- it was largely wiped out at Vuhledar at least twice - to the area, and sends in small groups through tree lines, mostly on motorbikes and ATV’s, to carry out drone operations.
However these haven’t stopped the Ukrainians from attacking and they have even used glide bombs dropped from Ukrainian air force Su-27’s on stubborn areas of resistance. This lead to a ‘semi-encirclement’ of the village.
The Russians themselves are torn over the whole Kharkiv offensive, which is recognised as a failure not that anyone will say the word. Having lost some 70,000 troops here in three months and having nothing much left to do anything but dig in (if Ukrainian drones will give them the chance), it’s largely seen as a lost cause, but nobody at the top will recognise it.
In the centre of the western sector, Russian units were attempting to rotate fresh troops into the line, only for poor organisation and communications to end up in a pitched battle during the night against each other, right in front of Ukrainian observers.
Not wanting to miss the opportunity to make things worse, the Ukrainians attacked the supply and evacuation trucks for both units, convincing each of the Russian forces they were fighting Ukrainians, when in fact they were attacking themselves. Just to make it worse the Ukrainians helped both sides do maximum damage to each other by lobbing in mortars and FPV drones for added measure.
It took over three hours before the Russians realised they were fighting their own side.
This graveyard of the Kharkiv front is a charade and a resource sucking waste of Russian forces - the military seem to know this. But the political decision has been made that a 20-40km ‘buffer zone’ must be established come what may. Only yesterday the Kremlin officially confirmed its position, stating operations would continue until this was achieved.
With what? How? In three months they have barely moved, lost over 7 brigades worth of manpower and equipment and are on the defensive. As a result yet more infantry are being assembled to fight in the area and attempt to reverse the situation. Politicians can be the death of armies.
Overall the Ukrainians have the situation contained and seem to be nearly ready to make a move on a larger scale. However they will face yet more poorly trained contract troops thrown into the line to bolster the Russian defence - and the Russians will use their attack to defend tactics regardless of losses. It’s far from over yet.

‘The Analyst’ MilStratOnX
Slava Ukraini !
Click to expand...
Dumb will do as dumb is...

When the stakes are so tightly balanced, this is the sort of thing that tips the pendulum before anyone realises

And then it's too late.

Slava Heroyem!

Slava Ukrainia!
 
SPIDERBOY said:
"Our missile program has good dynamics, and although it is a difficult task, we are gradually approaching the ability to use our own missiles, and not just rely on missiles from partners"......Zelensky.

A good place to start would be Olenya Airfield.
There is 27 TU type bombers sat in the open.......Me.

Slava Ukraini.
Click to expand...
MAybe Zelensky is reading bluemoon...
I'll be amazed if only 1 was hit.

Slava Ukraini.

 
At night, GUR drones attacked 3 military airfields in Russia

We are talking about the airfield in Engels, Saratov region, "Dyagilevo" in Ryazan region, and "Olenya" in Murmansk region. (!)

Preliminarily, a TU-22M3 supersonic missile-carrying bomber was damaged due to drone strikes at the "Olenya" airfield (1,800 km from the Ukrainian border).

A refinery in Ryazan was also hit, according to Suspilny's interlocutor in Ukrainian intelligence.

Tu-95MS, Tu-22M3, Tu-134UBL and Il-78 aircraft are based at Diaghilev airfield.

The results of hits on other Russian military facilities are being clarified.
 
From ‘The Analyst’ (Military & Strategic) X: MilStratOnX

MAJOR PROBLEMS FOR UKRAINE BLAMED ON 41st BRIGADE

An interesting series of tweets, analysis and reports from Ukraine have suggested that the Russians became aware of poor commanders and low morale and training in Ukrainian troops of the 41st Brigade.
So much so that they tracked the rotation of the brigade and deliberately attacked it, knowing that it wasn’t capable of defending properly.
It was involved in the loss of the Chasiv Yar Canal District, the New York fiasco and problems in Toretsk. Indeed wherever it has been problems and failures followed. Some have even suggested treachery but I think that’s going too far.
There is no doubt that the Russian manpower level - now standing at 520,000 and planned to reach 620,000 later this year, is having a seriously detrimental effect on Ukrainian forces. There are good days and bad days but if you look around the positive spin doctors on YouTube and X, they are struggling. There is unwillingness to cover the heaps of bad news and over emphasis on the all too few frontline successes.
I’m telling you things are bad. There just aren’t enough experienced Ukrainian forces in the front line and they don’t have enough equipment. When the Russians find a weakness they’ve become relentless at exploiting it regardless of the cost.
There are so many of these weak points it’s impossible to list them all meaningfully.
Call your MP your representatives, anyone who can make the difference. Ukraine needs aid now more than ever. While European politicians go off on vacation Ukraine is still fighting.

Slava
 
Scottyboi said:
From ‘The Analyst’ (Military & Strategic) X: MilStratOnX

MAJOR PROBLEMS FOR UKRAINE BLAMED ON 41st BRIGADE

An interesting series of tweets, analysis and reports from Ukraine have suggested that the Russians became aware of poor commanders and low morale and training in Ukrainian troops of the 41st Brigade.
So much so that they tracked the rotation of the brigade and deliberately attacked it, knowing that it wasn’t capable of defending properly.
It was involved in the loss of the Chasiv Yar Canal District, the New York fiasco and problems in Toretsk. Indeed wherever it has been problems and failures followed. Some have even suggested treachery but I think that’s going too far.
There is no doubt that the Russian manpower level - now standing at 520,000 and planned to reach 620,000 later this year, is having a seriously detrimental effect on Ukrainian forces. There are good days and bad days but if you look around the positive spin doctors on YouTube and X, they are struggling. There is unwillingness to cover the heaps of bad news and over emphasis on the all too few frontline successes.
I’m telling you things are bad. There just aren’t enough experienced Ukrainian forces in the front line and they don’t have enough equipment. When the Russians find a weakness they’ve become relentless at exploiting it regardless of the cost.
There are so many of these weak points it’s impossible to list them all meaningfully.
Call your MP your representatives, anyone who can make the difference. Ukraine needs aid now more than ever. While European politicians go off on vacation Ukraine is still fighting.

Slava
Click to expand...
Not good..
 
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