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Russian invasion of Ukraine
- Thread starter feedmpenzaandhewillscore
- Start date
Scottyboi
Well-Known Member
From ‘The Analyst’ (Military & Strategic) X: MilStratOnX
RUSSIAN AIR DEFENCE STRATEGY IN TATTERS
It’s been a hideous few weeks for the Russians in terms of air defence and air operations.
Having at one point abandoned Crimea for its fleet, had its bases for helicopters and its air force destroyed, its comms and satellite control systems destroyed, there seemed little reason to bother with protecting it. But rather than accept Crimea had been made largely untenable - yet also the reality that even if it was, Ukraine was in no position and may never be to retake it by military means, Russian pride (mostly Putin’s I’d wager), demanded that more effort be put in to defend it.
So new EW jammers and S-400 systems were redeployed from arguably more vital frontline operations to meet the demand.
The resulting destruction of these units in recent days has proved hyper-embarrassing. The Russians failed to understand that the advent of longer range ATACMS, the loss of their radars giving 360 coverage and the fact I’m pretty sure the Ukrainians are using longer range StormShadow than they were originally (nobody is saying a word about it so I’m assuming it’s true, because normally when you ask the question you get an unequivocal ‘no’, but this time nothing, so that’s an unwillingness to say yes, but a declination to lie by saying no).
Meanwhile the Ukrainians used as many as 8 ATACMS and 8 StormShadow on the tank repair and storage bases across Luhansk - the Russians claimed they shot half of them down but the devastation was pretty intense one way or another.
The massive drone strikes on the Morosovsk air base were some of the most spectacular we have witnessed in this war to date. The Russians must be stunned that this level of destruction was even possible. They clearly didn’t think it was even at risk of they would have taken more precautions and defended the base.
The explosion of glide bombs in the central warehouse was said to look and sound like a tactical nuclear weapon going off. The explosion was massive and the shockwave did huge damage, levelling almost everything around it. The fires were intense. The majority of the more distant hangars were clearly hit and their roofed areas pockmarked with holes and drone sized entry points. Rubble is everywhere and the satellite photos show a level of destruction that most Cold War interdiction bombers like the Tornado would have been jealous of creating. It’s truly spectacular. A totally new level of destruction for such a huge facility.
And where were the air defences? Diverted to protect Putin’s pride in Crimea where they became toast anyway.
Ukraine of course attacked the base at was crucial in the deployment of glide bombs in the front. Yet it also pushes the Russian air force further away and that in turn increases the operating space for the F-16’s.
So we have to ask what is Russia’s air defence plan?
The loss of key S-400 units is now at the point of criticality. Lesser systems may have tactical expediency but the real Crown Jewels are the S-400’s and they clearly don’t have many left. They still obsess over the Crimean bridge because we all know that sooner or later that thing is coming down one way or another. It would be a huge blow to Putin’s personal prestige, so it requires defending even as major military air bases are taken out.
I actually struggle to ascertain what Russia’s air defence strategy is other than defend prestige related areas and infrastructure. It certainly isn’t focused on defending the oil refineries, or much else that really matters. Have they reached the stage where there’s just simply so few S-400 systems left now, they are in last ditch positions to defend only what Putin’s preferences say they should defend?
Russian air operations are dominated by glide bomb delivery. Yet the bases they operate from are now clearly high risk. CONTINUES..
CONTINUES..
There’s a lack of air defence in the frontline because we know Ukraine has been using its fighters to strike at positions there. Indeed the only Russian success destroying aircraft is hitting them on the ground using spy drones and ballistic missiles.
There does come a time when military strategy falls apart because there are no resources to support it. And that’s where I think we are.
Crimea was hit from the sea where jammers and radars were useless. Drones wander across Russian airspace with impunity. Ukrainian air forces operate against frontline positions unafraid of Russian fighters or air defences. The evidence suggests what strategy there was has collapsed in the face of harsh realities and chronic attrition.
‘The Analyst’ MilStratOnX
Slava Ukraini !
RUSSIAN AIR DEFENCE STRATEGY IN TATTERS
It’s been a hideous few weeks for the Russians in terms of air defence and air operations.
Having at one point abandoned Crimea for its fleet, had its bases for helicopters and its air force destroyed, its comms and satellite control systems destroyed, there seemed little reason to bother with protecting it. But rather than accept Crimea had been made largely untenable - yet also the reality that even if it was, Ukraine was in no position and may never be to retake it by military means, Russian pride (mostly Putin’s I’d wager), demanded that more effort be put in to defend it.
So new EW jammers and S-400 systems were redeployed from arguably more vital frontline operations to meet the demand.
The resulting destruction of these units in recent days has proved hyper-embarrassing. The Russians failed to understand that the advent of longer range ATACMS, the loss of their radars giving 360 coverage and the fact I’m pretty sure the Ukrainians are using longer range StormShadow than they were originally (nobody is saying a word about it so I’m assuming it’s true, because normally when you ask the question you get an unequivocal ‘no’, but this time nothing, so that’s an unwillingness to say yes, but a declination to lie by saying no).
Meanwhile the Ukrainians used as many as 8 ATACMS and 8 StormShadow on the tank repair and storage bases across Luhansk - the Russians claimed they shot half of them down but the devastation was pretty intense one way or another.
The massive drone strikes on the Morosovsk air base were some of the most spectacular we have witnessed in this war to date. The Russians must be stunned that this level of destruction was even possible. They clearly didn’t think it was even at risk of they would have taken more precautions and defended the base.
The explosion of glide bombs in the central warehouse was said to look and sound like a tactical nuclear weapon going off. The explosion was massive and the shockwave did huge damage, levelling almost everything around it. The fires were intense. The majority of the more distant hangars were clearly hit and their roofed areas pockmarked with holes and drone sized entry points. Rubble is everywhere and the satellite photos show a level of destruction that most Cold War interdiction bombers like the Tornado would have been jealous of creating. It’s truly spectacular. A totally new level of destruction for such a huge facility.
And where were the air defences? Diverted to protect Putin’s pride in Crimea where they became toast anyway.
Ukraine of course attacked the base at was crucial in the deployment of glide bombs in the front. Yet it also pushes the Russian air force further away and that in turn increases the operating space for the F-16’s.
So we have to ask what is Russia’s air defence plan?
The loss of key S-400 units is now at the point of criticality. Lesser systems may have tactical expediency but the real Crown Jewels are the S-400’s and they clearly don’t have many left. They still obsess over the Crimean bridge because we all know that sooner or later that thing is coming down one way or another. It would be a huge blow to Putin’s personal prestige, so it requires defending even as major military air bases are taken out.
I actually struggle to ascertain what Russia’s air defence strategy is other than defend prestige related areas and infrastructure. It certainly isn’t focused on defending the oil refineries, or much else that really matters. Have they reached the stage where there’s just simply so few S-400 systems left now, they are in last ditch positions to defend only what Putin’s preferences say they should defend?
Russian air operations are dominated by glide bomb delivery. Yet the bases they operate from are now clearly high risk. CONTINUES..
CONTINUES..
There’s a lack of air defence in the frontline because we know Ukraine has been using its fighters to strike at positions there. Indeed the only Russian success destroying aircraft is hitting them on the ground using spy drones and ballistic missiles.
There does come a time when military strategy falls apart because there are no resources to support it. And that’s where I think we are.
Crimea was hit from the sea where jammers and radars were useless. Drones wander across Russian airspace with impunity. Ukrainian air forces operate against frontline positions unafraid of Russian fighters or air defences. The evidence suggests what strategy there was has collapsed in the face of harsh realities and chronic attrition.
‘The Analyst’ MilStratOnX
Slava Ukraini !
CTID1977
Well-Known Member
I fucking knew it;)
feedmpenzaandhewillscore
Well-Known Member
350km² of Kursk Region is now in the hands of Ukrainian Forces!!!
Heroyam Slava.
They should annex it and call it Ukraine, it’s the rules the noncey Russian have been playing by for two and a half years.
BlueAnorak
Well-Known Member
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