Russian invasion of Ukraine

[BlueAnorak]

Ukraine won't be getting F35 any time soon.

They will however probably get Poland's F-16s as squadrens of F35's enter active service...

 

[Kirkstall Blue]

Ukraine won't be getting F35 any time soon.

No at least Poland will….I don’t know why we have restrictions on Ukraine Starmer knows the difference between right and wrong he’s ignoring Zelenskyi pleas.

 

[gordondaviesmoustache]

Oil production in Russia is going Kaput.

both cracking plants at Omsk are supplied by a Swedish company - I.e not Russian.
On the 25th April a fire badly damaged one plant. The fire was started by Ukrainian saboteurs.
The damage has not been repaired because cracking unit parts are supplied by a Swedish company and Russia is under sanctions.
On the 26th August new Ukrainian long distance drone took out the other plant.
You need one operational plant to supply the whole refinary.
Production if all oil based products was suspended on the 27th August. Unsuprising as there are no spare cracking plants.
In one fell swoop 10% of all Petrol, Gasoline, Kerosene (plane fuel) and other oil products in Russia ceased to be available.
Estimates indicate that prior to the hit 20-25% of Russian fuel production had been stopped due to Ukrainian action.
It is now 30-35%.
Prices are rising and shortages are being reported.
For example, Russian airline fuel is now strictly limited to 30 mins of extra fuel per flight and there is now no room for error on landing

So why, i hear you say, do I report this?
Well, another 3 or 4 hits on Russian refining capacity and the war is essentially over as Russian logistics just stops.

Unless of course Russia can find someone to buy fuels from. Iran seems the obvious candidate. In this scenario, the Russian economy takes a huge financial hit instead.

That post puts me in mind of that Sun Tzu quote: “He who wishes to fight must first count the cost,”

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

Oil production in Russia is going Kaput.

both cracking plants at Omsk are supplied by a Swedish company - I.e not Russian.
On the 25th April a fire badly damaged one plant. The fire was started by Ukrainian saboteurs.
The damage has not been repaired because cracking unit parts are supplied by a Swedish company and Russia is under sanctions.
On the 26th August new Ukrainian long distance drone took out the other plant.
You need one operational plant to supply the whole refinary.
Production if all oil based products was suspended on the 27th August. Unsuprising as there are no spare cracking plants.
In one fell swoop 10% of all Petrol, Gasoline, Kerosene (plane fuel) and other oil products in Russia ceased to be available.
Estimates indicate that prior to the hit 20-25% of Russian fuel production had been stopped due to Ukrainian action.
It is now 30-35%.
Prices are rising and shortages are being reported.
For example, Russian airline fuel is now strictly limited to 30 mins of extra fuel per flight and there is now no room for error on landing

So why, i hear you say, do I report this?
Well, another 3 or 4 hits on Russian refining capacity and the war is essentially over as Russian logistics just stops.

Unless of course Russia can find someone to buy fuels from. Iran seems the obvious candidate. In this scenario, the Russian economy takes a huge financial hit instead.

I'm obviously not wanting this to happen, but surely they could replace the damaged cracking parts with ones from China ? Hard to believe that they are not replaceable ??

 

[mosssideblue]

No at least Poland will….I don’t know why we have restrictions on Ukraine Starmer knows the difference between right and wrong he’s ignoring Zelenskyi pleas.

In what way?

 

[BlueAnorak]

I'm obviously not wanting this to happen, but surely they could replace the damaged cracking parts with ones from China ? Hard to believe that they are not replaceable ??

Well - if they could it will take months to fix.Parts are highly bespoke. More likely they would replace the cracking plant completely. But either way it would take many, many months to fix.
Also, the US has recently been sanctioning Chinese companies supplying Russia, so many Chinese companies just won't supply Russia.
Dual purpose goods are much easier to supply to get round sanctions via plausible deniability. Cracking plants and parts on the other hand? Not so easy.

 

[CTID1977]

-1 **** down

 

[BlueAnorak]

 

[BlueAnorak]

There is no desirable strategy here...
Move along.

 

[cleavers]

I don’t know why we have restrictions on Ukraine Starmer knows the difference between right and wrong he’s ignoring Zelenskyi pleas.

If you're referring to Storm Shadow, it's not simply up to UK government, it's a joint collaboration with France, and France hasn't agreed to it, this has been discussed on this thread before.