Russian invasion of Ukraine

Video Review:

A while ago it was noted that Ukraime were planning to attack on the right and leff flanks to force the Russians out - Well, maybe the left flank has happened yesterday.
 
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From "The Analyst":

SITREP - THINGS ARE EXTREMELY TOUGH

Let’s start at the southern end of the front and work our way up.
Vuhledar is under increasing pressure from Russian advances. The road to supply it now only comes from the north and any easy ability the Ukrainians had to transfer troops laterally up and down the front has been severed.
Further north the Ukrainians have seemingly withdrawn from Novohrodivka and the Russians have made rapid gains there.
It’s not clear why the Ukrainians abandoned the town as it was a point of defence. However the Ukrainians may be saving their resources for the defence of Pokrovsk which is next, once the Russians cross the open country. Be under no illusion Russia is taking a lot of territory relative to past operations.
Further north the Russians continue to make small advances. There is dispute over how far the Russians have or have not crossed the canal towards Chasiv Yar.
Ukrainian forces on the river Oskil remain under intense pressure.
Kursk has once again fallen under tight OPSEC - from both sides. However we know that the Ukrainians haven’t yet taken Kornevo and the Russians have stopped them half way into the town.
Ukrainian forces have again taken Malaya Locna and the key buildings of the women’s prison which dominate the main road to Kursk city have been evacuated by Russian forces.
Elsewhere the advance appears to have stopped. Despite isolating Russian troops in the Gorchkovo region by cutting off bridges no move appears to have been made to consolidate the area.
Elsewhere the Belorussian military has placed as much as one third of its forces on the Ukrainian border at the junction it meets Ukraine and Russia.
They say they’re defending from a potential attack and we all know that’s false. Lukashenko made a speech yesterday to a group of sour faced and bored looking military and party leaders, saying that NATO was offering all sorts incentives to turn on Russia. Clearly he was trying to suggest there was an external threat if he did not. However this was entirely for internal consumption.
So Ukraine is facing possibly its most challenging and complex fighting since the war began.
Its forces are being deliberately stretched by the Russians as the press them on every front. Kursk is starting to look like a problem in the future and there’s no doubt those forces are desperately needed on the front in other areas.
Instead we have a stalled offensive that Russia seems slowly to be starting to establish resistance against -
As was inevitable. Even if the advance resumed to what end? Russia isn’t switching resources from the frontlines where it’s advancing to stop them. Every day it’s becoming increasingly clear this is going to be a strategic mistake once the history is written. It would have been better if it had been a raid.
Ukrainian forces apparently employed F-16 for the first time defending against air threats yesterday.
Several videos showed both an Su-27 and an Mi-8 helicopter shooting down a cruise missile and Shaheed drone respectively. Dramatic footage of a Russian Kalibr missing the dam after being hit in Kyiv and exploding in the reservoir was shown widely.
As European and American politicians start to return from their cosy summer holidays the near silence over support now and in the future of Ukraine might start to look a bit livelier. American aid seems to be being spread thin - mostly ammunition - no big gesture allocations of heavy equipment like more M-777 or Bradley’s.
Ukraine has apparently tested its new tactical ballistic missile which has been under development for years.
They may be on the cusp of early deployment. Remember that Ukraine has a lot of domestic expertise in missile design and build - it was the centre of Soviet era missile fabrication for every category.
There’s no point in sugar coating this, but Ukraine is struggling and things are difficult - worse than they have ever been in the past 18 months.
Russian advances are costing them dearly in resources and manpower but they don’t care as long as they keep advancing.
(1/2)
(2/2)
The Russian airfields are paying a price and the Russian oil refineries and depots are continuing to burn. The Proletorsk depot is in its ninth day - one video by an employee lamented it had taken 15 years to build and a week to destroy. That gives you an idea of the scale of the damage and how hard it is to fix it. Another depot in Rostov was hit yesterday. Ukraine’s strategic strikes against crucial fuel and transport hubs continues to pile on pressure for the Russian military logistics system.
I’m getting concerned now as to how long Ukraine can hold this level of resistance, as long standing defence points start to crack. Pokrovsk being taken would be a major strategic loss. Vuhledar too. A look at the map will tell you that.
I have in my mind that there is a vast secret being kept. 150,000 Ukrainian conscripts are being supplied quietly with huge amounts of American equipment that we haven’t even been told about. They are waiting, training. The huge neck of a salient the Russians have pushed into Ukraine to get near Pokrovsk is looking increasingly precarious.
I imagine weak spot exists in its flanks - salients like this quickly taken always do. I want to see a sudden and violent counter attack at a key point that causes it to collapse. Before the Russians can even grasp what’s happening.
That’s what I would be planning and have organised if this was down to me. A strike so intense and so focused the Russians simply couldn’t stop it.
But that’s probably wishful thinking.
I think we now have to ask ourselves can Ukraine carry on like this for another year? Can Russia? The war seems to continue to escalate in missile strikes and drone strikes far beyond anything imaginable two years back. Within a few months Ukraine won’t be worrying about ATACMS or restrictions as its own weapons start to come on line in scale. But the frontline is the key. Russia and Ukraine know it. And there, Russia right now has the upper hand.

‘The Analyst’ MilStratOnX
Slava Ukraini !
 
Scottyboi said:
From "The Analyst":

SITREP - THINGS ARE EXTREMELY TOUGH

Let’s start at the southern end of the front and work our way up.
Vuhledar is under increasing pressure from Russian advances. The road to supply it now only comes from the north and any easy ability the Ukrainians had to transfer troops laterally up and down the front has been severed.
Further north the Ukrainians have seemingly withdrawn from Novohrodivka and the Russians have made rapid gains there.
It’s not clear why the Ukrainians abandoned the town as it was a point of defence. However the Ukrainians may be saving their resources for the defence of Pokrovsk which is next, once the Russians cross the open country. Be under no illusion Russia is taking a lot of territory relative to past operations.
Further north the Russians continue to make small advances. There is dispute over how far the Russians have or have not crossed the canal towards Chasiv Yar.
Ukrainian forces on the river Oskil remain under intense pressure.
Kursk has once again fallen under tight OPSEC - from both sides. However we know that the Ukrainians haven’t yet taken Kornevo and the Russians have stopped them half way into the town.
Ukrainian forces have again taken Malaya Locna and the key buildings of the women’s prison which dominate the main road to Kursk city have been evacuated by Russian forces.
Elsewhere the advance appears to have stopped. Despite isolating Russian troops in the Gorchkovo region by cutting off bridges no move appears to have been made to consolidate the area.
Elsewhere the Belorussian military has placed as much as one third of its forces on the Ukrainian border at the junction it meets Ukraine and Russia.
They say they’re defending from a potential attack and we all know that’s false. Lukashenko made a speech yesterday to a group of sour faced and bored looking military and party leaders, saying that NATO was offering all sorts incentives to turn on Russia. Clearly he was trying to suggest there was an external threat if he did not. However this was entirely for internal consumption.
So Ukraine is facing possibly its most challenging and complex fighting since the war began.
Its forces are being deliberately stretched by the Russians as the press them on every front. Kursk is starting to look like a problem in the future and there’s no doubt those forces are desperately needed on the front in other areas.
Instead we have a stalled offensive that Russia seems slowly to be starting to establish resistance against -
As was inevitable. Even if the advance resumed to what end? Russia isn’t switching resources from the frontlines where it’s advancing to stop them. Every day it’s becoming increasingly clear this is going to be a strategic mistake once the history is written. It would have been better if it had been a raid.
Ukrainian forces apparently employed F-16 for the first time defending against air threats yesterday.
Several videos showed both an Su-27 and an Mi-8 helicopter shooting down a cruise missile and Shaheed drone respectively. Dramatic footage of a Russian Kalibr missing the dam after being hit in Kyiv and exploding in the reservoir was shown widely.
As European and American politicians start to return from their cosy summer holidays the near silence over support now and in the future of Ukraine might start to look a bit livelier. American aid seems to be being spread thin - mostly ammunition - no big gesture allocations of heavy equipment like more M-777 or Bradley’s.
Ukraine has apparently tested its new tactical ballistic missile which has been under development for years.
They may be on the cusp of early deployment. Remember that Ukraine has a lot of domestic expertise in missile design and build - it was the centre of Soviet era missile fabrication for every category.
There’s no point in sugar coating this, but Ukraine is struggling and things are difficult - worse than they have ever been in the past 18 months.
Russian advances are costing them dearly in resources and manpower but they don’t care as long as they keep advancing.
(1/2)
(2/2)
The Russian airfields are paying a price and the Russian oil refineries and depots are continuing to burn. The Proletorsk depot is in its ninth day - one video by an employee lamented it had taken 15 years to build and a week to destroy. That gives you an idea of the scale of the damage and how hard it is to fix it. Another depot in Rostov was hit yesterday. Ukraine’s strategic strikes against crucial fuel and transport hubs continues to pile on pressure for the Russian military logistics system.
I’m getting concerned now as to how long Ukraine can hold this level of resistance, as long standing defence points start to crack. Pokrovsk being taken would be a major strategic loss. Vuhledar too. A look at the map will tell you that.
I have in my mind that there is a vast secret being kept. 150,000 Ukrainian conscripts are being supplied quietly with huge amounts of American equipment that we haven’t even been told about. They are waiting, training. The huge neck of a salient the Russians have pushed into Ukraine to get near Pokrovsk is looking increasingly precarious.
I imagine weak spot exists in its flanks - salients like this quickly taken always do. I want to see a sudden and violent counter attack at a key point that causes it to collapse. Before the Russians can even grasp what’s happening.
That’s what I would be planning and have organised if this was down to me. A strike so intense and so focused the Russians simply couldn’t stop it.
But that’s probably wishful thinking.
I think we now have to ask ourselves can Ukraine carry on like this for another year? Can Russia? The war seems to continue to escalate in missile strikes and drone strikes far beyond anything imaginable two years back. Within a few months Ukraine won’t be worrying about ATACMS or restrictions as its own weapons start to come on line in scale. But the frontline is the key. Russia and Ukraine know it. And there, Russia right now has the upper hand.

‘The Analyst’ MilStratOnX
Slava Ukraini !
Click to expand...
Disagree about it being a strategic mistake - many military analysts don't think it's a mistake either, but there you go.
It has certainly restored Ukrainian belief that they can defeat Russia - which is extremely good news.
 
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LGWIO said:
As ever thank you to @SPIDERBOY & @CTID1977 for your continued updates.
I recall mention of possible pushes in Kherson with possible landings on Kinburn...has there been anythign else about this? Or radio silence?
Click to expand...
Yes thank you Spider and 1977 for updating us and also Blue Anorak for daily giving us up dates with Maps and explanations of the war thanks very helpful take a bow
 
Battle for Pokrovsk - analysis of Ukrainian reserve officer Tatarigami:

• Pokrovsk had a population of 60 thousand people before the war. This is a key transport hub (railroad and automobile), through which supplies go to both Ugledar in the south and the northern regions of the Donetsk region. This is the most important node, along with Kramatorsk.

• The Pokrovsk-Konstantynovka road has long been a target of the occupiers. With its cutting, the situation in the Bakhmut-Horlovka area will significantly worsen for Ukrainian fighters.

• Moreover, Pokrovsk is located only 20 kilometers from the Dnipropetrovsk region. Considering the new invasion of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in the Kharkiv region, it is unlikely that the invaders will stop at the border between the regions and continue to push further.

• Starting in July, the pace of Russian advance in this area accelerated, allowing to overcome the fortifications that the Ukrainians hastily created after the fall of Avdeevka.

• Satellite images of the battle sites show that Russian artillery is shelling Ukrainian trenches, but not as intensively as it was near Ocheretyn. Apparently, due to the lack of personnel, Ukrainian fighters cannot organize a strong defense and are forced to retreat.

• Although there are questions about the quality of the fortified, the main problem remains the lack of manpower. It doesn't matter how powerful the fortifications are, they will fall if 10-20% of the required number of people defend them.

• Usually, both Russians and Ukrainians redeploy certain units to stabilize problem sectors. However, the Ukrainian defense of the Kharkiv direction and the operation in the Kursk region greatly reduced the amount of available reserves.

• This does not mean that Pokrovsk is doomed, but the chances of a successful defense of the city have decreased. Despite the request of the Ukrainian command to force the invaders to transfer part of their forces near Kursk, the Russian generals do not decide to reduce their forces in the Pokrovsky direction.

• The Ukrainian command has several options. They can transfer new brigades near Pokrovsk, withdraw units sent from Kharkov and Kursk, or transfer battalions from more stable areas of the front. In any case, time is on Russia's side here, a delay increases the risk of an operational disaster.
 
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