Russian invasion of Ukraine

[west didsblue]

2% of GDP was supposed to be a requirement of being a NATO member!

There was an agreement in place that all NATO countries would achieve 2% by 2024. It's good news that this will be achieved early.

 

[blueinsa]

I thought Russia was supposed to be a super power with hi tech weaponry and highly trained troops? All we've seen from media reports are 50 year old Lada trucks carrying Chechnian rabble and boys. If reports are true, 4500 is also a hefty loss and after a week they haven't even entered Kiev (thankfully).

Javelin and NLAW’s are decimating an invasion force that is literally thick as pig shit, sat in long stationary columns waiting to be hit and those vehicles are filled with soldiers.

Russia is taking a bit of a pasting here imo.

 

[inbetween]

You're dreaming mate. At least I hope so, because any nuclear retaliation from the UK - or the US or France or whovever - against Russia, and it's the end of the world as we know it.

We'd have very little (if any?) ability to intercept a nuke launched towards us from western Russia, and were that to happen - with a nuke aimed at the North Sea - the very best thing that could happen would be that we did nothing. Anything else would - literally - be suicide.

The UK apparently doesn't have a first strike policy but the US does. The US will pre-emptively attack any nuclear site that they deem to be close to launching nukes and it doesn't matter where they're heading because the goal is to destroy them before they're even launched. My guess is after that they'll attack Russian targets.

I can only imagine that they have satellites sat over Russian nuclear sites for this very purpose. The major risk comes from Russian submarines which could well be sat anywhere in the world. However, it's very easy to determine when one has been launched and the US has technology to shoot them down, their policy is to then attack the aggressor.

 

[Chippy_boy]

I would suggest he is already humiliated and defeated insofar as Russia's standing in the world

For sure, but that's irrelevant.

 

[Chippy_boy]

The UK doesn't have a first strike policy but the US does. The US will pre-emptively attack any nuclear site that they deem to be close to launching nukes and it doesn't matter where they're heading because the goal is to destroy them before they're even launched.

I can only imagine that they have satellites sat over Russian nuclear sites for this very purpose. The major risk comes from Russian submarines which could well be sat anywhere in the world. However, it's very easy to determine when one has been launched and the US has technology to shoot them down, their policy is to then nuke the aggressor.

Sounds slightly comforting. But not very. Russia has around 6,800 nuclear weapons, and even if they only launched 10% of them and only 1% of those made it through to their targets, that's still 68 nuclear strikes and hundreds of millions of lives lost.

And worse, I am reminded of van Moltke's quote: "No plan survives first contact with the enemy".

@metalblue - you are spot on with your last paragraph above:

I hope the talks can bring an end to this, they need to be able to give Putin something he can sell - such as joint governance of the disputed eastern regions - not great but sometimes you have to be pragmatic. The west/NATO needs to look at their relationship with Russia and find common ground and work from there. Putin won’t last forever and doesn’t represent the Russian people, we just need to swallow deeply, hold our noses, smile sweetly at him and be nice once the fighting stops and an agreement that is acceptable to Ukraine is found. In the meantime we need to continue to support Ukraine and not pay any attention to Putins rantings, honestly if he wanted to make a nuclear strike he wouldn’t have broadcast it on TV - he sees the west as weak (or did until a couple of days ago) and it’s for the benefit of the flappers to try and create disunity.

 

[mosssideblue]

For sure, but that's irrelevant.

I think it is totally relevant as his demise is more likely to come from within much sooner.

 

[The blue phantom]

You're dreaming mate. At least I hope so, because any nuclear retaliation from the UK - or the US or France or whovever - against Russia, and it's the end of the world as we know it.

We'd have very little (if any?) ability to intercept a nuke launched towards us from western Russia, and were that to happen - with a nuke aimed at the North Sea - the very best thing that could happen would be that we did nothing. Anything else would - literally - be suicide.

Was watching a strategic analyst on CNN, 19 Minutes he reckons for the Ballistic Missiles to hit us from Russia. We'd see an avalanche of them too with next to Zero chance of stopping them.

Just thought I'd cheer you up :)

 

[west didsblue]

This isn’t the movies mate. It would take some massive balls of steel for the UK to wait to see where an inbound missile would land/exploded as it approached the UK - it will be considered extreme aggression and that would trigger a response. Likely from NATO as a whole.

We know he has nuclear weapons and we have no desire to have a conflict with Russia. It is far more likely that if he wanted to go nuclear it would be tactical and in Ukraine - and I don’t think it is that likely.

I hope the talks can bring an end to this, they need to be able to give Putin something he can sell - such as joint governance of the disputed eastern regions - not great but sometimes you have to be pragmatic. The west/NATO needs to look at their relationship with Russia and find common ground and work from there. Putin won’t last forever and doesn’t represent the Russian people, we just need to swallow deeply, hold our noses, smile sweetly at him and be nice once the fighting stops and an agreement that is acceptable to Ukraine is found. In the meantime we need to continue to support Ukraine and not pay any attention to Putins rantings, honestly if he wanted to make a nuclear strike he wouldn’t have broadcast it on TV - he sees the west as weak (or did until a couple of days ago) and it’s for the benefit of the flappers to try and create disunity.

His rhetoric worked for at least one of those flappers on here who advocated a Ukraine surrender before the Russians had even made a move.

 

[BobKowalski]

Agreed.

But, you shouldn’t get kudos for getting a round in once every three trips to the pub!

German attitudes were largely historic. The Allied powers restricted the size and scope of the German military after WW2. Germany in turn developed a strong pacifist sentiment - the scars of WW2 and it’s own horrors run deep.

Germany has always been conciliatory to Russia for the same reasons. It took Russian aggression to overturn decades of policy overnight. The French or the US lecturing them about defence or NATO spending was never going to prod them into action.

Putin did it 48 hours.

 

[Hayley Croppers chopper]

Was watching a strategic analyst on CNN, 19 Minutes he reckons for the Ballistic Missiles to hit us from Russia. We'd see an avalanche on them too with next to Zero chance of stopping them.

Just thought I'd cheer you up :)

So lets go to the joke thread.