Russian invasion of Ukraine

[The blue phantom]

Russia has about 400 ICBMs that are estimated to carry about 1200 warheads.

Obviously depending on targets it is estimated that one warhead kills 150,000 and injures 93,000. If all got through it would mean about 204m people are killed and 130m are injured in the west probably less for Russia given its sheer size and population distribution although most are on the western side. So you have a 21% chance of dying and 13% chance of being injured in the west and probably 70+% chance of being wiped out if you are in Russia. Although modern missiles are far more accurate so instead of targeting cities for value they are just as likely to target military installations which would significantly reduce that - estimated to be between 51-88m deaths for the west and Russia. Obviously life will be pretty shit for those that survive for some time so let’s hope we can stop arguing over borders and start agreeing over humanity.

That 400 ICBMs has been put at nearly 1600. That number was banded about at the weekend.

What nuclear weapons does Russia hold and how likely is Vladimir Putin to use them?

The Russian president has raised the spectre of a nuclear war in Europe. Here's what we know and what might happen next

www.telegraph.co.uk

 

[Octavian]

Oh I can! :)

They're fighting a 2020's war with 1980's tactics. Mobile forces armed with multiple javelin's and stinger's fighting a guerilla war are a chaotic nuisance. They expected a Seelow Heights scenario with tank superiority winning the day and it's not how it's turned out.

The Ukraine are sadly desperate, I’d be surprised if they weren’t completely fudging the numbers to boost morale.

 

[Citizen of Legoland]

I have a hard time believing Russia have lost 5400 in 4 days and Ukraine are about 200-300.

I think you have to bear in mind the nature of Russia's strategy, which was to overtake the country without too much collateral damage. They obviously thought they would just march in unopposed and now don't know which way to go, both from a command point of view in Moscow and at the sharp end on the ground. They're sitting ducks and that will be demoralising for their troops so whilst the numbers might be exaggerated it would still be terrible at 25% of those numbers.

 

[metalblue]

Ta for link.

it’s like reading recent history.
no wonder putin was confident about Ukraine , he’s achieved all before - weaken uk from Europe, weaken Europe, divide to the nth degree the US.

We’re closer to Europe than we’ve been for many many years, and we are seeing a Europe we could be an engaged/active part of.

 

[I'm With Stupid]

 

[metalblue]

That 400 ICBMs has been put at nearly 1600. That number was banded about at the weekend.

What nuclear weapons does Russia hold and how likely is Vladimir Putin to use them?

The Russian president has raised the spectre of a nuclear war in Europe. Here's what we know and what might happen next

www.telegraph.co.uk

No mate, each missile carries more than one warhead. From article they quote

“Moscow’s war chest includes 527 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and strategic bombers.”

 

[Blue warrior]

I am sure this conflict is having a disproportionate effect on those of us who experience mental health issues.
Having said that I wouldn’t use BM to alleviate those fears.
I genuinely feel sorry for some posters on here who are visibly suffering.
To try and help though think of the following:
* I would like to think that there are skilled diplomats on both sides using back channels to try and reach a compromise.
* I cannot see China supporting Putins use of any Nuclear arsenal.
* Although it’s difficult to envisage an end game at the moment we are some way off from global annihilation.

The vast majority of the World had become united in a way that didn’t seem possible.
Whatever the outcome we could well see a whole new world after this.

Massive palpitations last couple of days especially since this nuclear stuff not nice at all.

 

[Coatigan]

Don't mention the B word.

And certainly don't mention where the Leave campaign got its money from.

And don't mention the Russia report.

And don't even think about mentioning why it played into Russia's interests for Britain to withdraw from the EU.

Mention it to your heart's delight, shout it from the rooftops. Remind all forever if you feel like it.

Just please don't do it on this thread here unless absolutely relevant to the ongoing situation, or it will derail it to lengthy side bickering.

 

[Metal Biker]

The Ukraine are sadly desperate, I’d be surprised if they weren’t completely fudging the numbers to boost morale.

They were desperate. Now it's the Russians feeling the pinch. The fact the Russians were claiming zero casualties when we saw the charred bodies and tanks and are reluctant to release casualty figures should be telling.

 

[Chippy_boy]

Russia has about 400 ICBMs that are estimated to carry about 1200 warheads.

Obviously depending on targets it is estimated that one warhead kills 150,000 and injures 93,000. If all got through it would mean about 204m people are killed and 130m are injured in the west probably less for Russia given its sheer size and population distribution although most are on the western side. So you have a 21% chance of dying and 13% chance of being injured in the west and probably 70+% chance of being wiped out if you are in Russia. Although modern missiles are far more accurate so instead of targeting cities for value they are just as likely to target military installations which would significantly reduce that - estimated to be between 51-88m deaths for the west and Russia. Obviously life will be pretty shit for those that survive for some time so let’s hope we can stop arguing over borders and start agreeing over humanity.

Not sure how helpful this is TBH. Assuming all the figures are accurate, and we can be 99% sure they aren't. Plus, if they "only" have 400 ICBMs, what are the other 6,400 nukes they own for exactly? I am guessing they have some other method of deploying them or else there's no point in having them.