Russian invasion of Ukraine

[bluethrunthru]

Its called people power - Putin will grow old and die never having achieved his objectives in Ukraine

 

[domalino]

People keep talking about a way out for Putin, but imagine if he keeps going for a minute.

Imagine an occupation like Afghanistan.

Instead of 40 year old soviet weapons the enemy is armed with the best modern technology in the world.

Then imagine there’s a real army of 400,000 to defeat first not an untrained rabble.

Then imagine instead of 1% of the population being against you, it’s more like 80%.

Then imagine that As long as it goes on, your economy is in the worst depression in history and inflation is reaching Zimbabwe levels.

Then imagine how low morale is back home now that you’re kicked out of all international sport, films aren’t released, there’s no gigs because bands don’t tour - not that you could afford it anyway.

People can’t buy a new phone or computer or to unless it’s Chinese. They can’t get parts for your cars. They can’t get flights anywhere.

Tens of thousands of mothers just lose contact with their sons and never hear from them again, never get to bury them or properly mourn.

Every political ally you have just lost 80% of their money and every day a coup is more likely.

This is Vietnam and the Great Depression and North Korea pariah status all in one.

Imagine knowing that you’ll go down as the worst president in the country’s history.

The off ramp is avoiding that. Come up with whatever lie and excuse you need to bring your “Special Military Exercise” to an end.

 

[Saddleworth2]

My neighbours are Latvian and we spent 40 minutes yesterday having a similar conversation. They believe we in the west are being fed propaganda, there’s a different side to the story, Putin is acting in the interest of Ukraine. It does make you wonder how they can come to that conclusion?

Poison being constantly dropped into your ear can have that effect if it’s done over a prolonged period.

 

[Chippy_boy]

What an utter shitshow, those poor Ukrainians must feel desperate right now.

Every Ukrainian is a human, just like us, with their own problems, whether work, medical, financial etc. All hoping for a peaceful, healthy existence for them and their families within the boundaries of a modern Europe.

A few days ago I thought if they held out for a week/ten days putins people would turn on him.

Now, sadly it looks like hes managed to convince them hes doing the right thing with his "special operation".

This is just conjecture of course, because who knows the truth with all the falseties flying around, certainly not me.

Wish we could help more militarily, surely that convoy is a sitting duck right now to state of the art drones or a cruise missile type weapons fired by Ukrainians from inside their own border.

Meanwhile putins telling peaceful, european civilians to leave their homes so he can bomb their cities, what the actual fuck.

Where does he think they can go? no need to answer, cos Im sure he doesnt give a shit.

I fear that putin has so much invested in this invasion that he is not going to pull out voluntarily or by an agreement with the west. That would take a massive climb down from him, honestly think he would prefer a wider conflict to that loss of face.

Now looks like two possible scenarios (short of that wider conflict).

1). putin takes all of Ukraine in a bloody war and going forward his puppet regime suffers at the hands of guerilla tactics, sadly this might give him justification to embark on a genocidal period. Or at least treat the Ukrainians as inferior citizens.

2). A deal is brokered where Ukraine is divided between west and east, a bit like germany post ww2. This could create another cold war and all the paranoia and mistrust could even create a new arms race etc.

So it brings us back to non military solutions.

I dont know how impactful sanctions are, but we should use every single last one that we possibly can in the hope of crippling russias economy quickly and turning his people against him in time to save Ukraine.

I would gladly take not having gas for a while, or whatever other shortages it took, and am sure the majority of civiliused people feel the same if it just made that difference.

Somehow a line has to be drawn against military aggression, and maybe its the civilians of this world and not the soldiers that can achieve that.

Great post.

 

[Scottyboi]

I agree with you Putin has taken Crimea he won’t stop with Ukraine. At the moment we appear weak,, I would like the US to stop saying “they won’t put boots on the ground and NATO the same“ they need to be quiet about our plans, leave Putin guessing

Wish there was a simulation you could run to see different outcomes!

Imagine NATO just called his bluff and went in, the Russian army in Ukraine would surrender or be wiped out.

He plays on the fear of bringing devastation to our countries and it is obviously effective, but there comes a point where that cannot be used as a way to let him pursue his objectives.

 

[Chippy_boy]

People keep talking about a way out for Putin, but imagine if he keeps going for a minute.

Imagine an occupation like Afghanistan.

Instead of 40 year old soviet weapons the enemy is armed with the best modern technology in the world.

Then imagine there’s a real army of 400,000 to defeat first not an untrained rabble.

Then imagine instead of 1% of the population being against you, it’s more like 80%.

Then imagine that As long as it goes on, your economy is in the worst depression in history and inflation is reaching Zimbabwe levels.

Then imagine how low morale is back home now that you’re kicked out of all international sport, films aren’t released, there’s no gigs because bands don’t tour - not that you could afford it anyway.

People can’t buy a new phone or computer or to unless it’s Chinese. They can’t get parts for your cars. They can’t get flights anywhere.

Tens of thousands of mothers just lose contact with their sons and never hear from them again, never get to bury them or properly mourn.


This is Vietnam and the Great Depression and North Korea pariah status all in one.

Imagine knowing that you’ll go down as the worst president in the country’s history.

The off ramp is avoiding that.

Everyone's entitled to their opinion of course, but personally I just think you're wrong on this one Domalino. The things you describe are all true, but they are all problems for another day. The right here and right now will be what's on Putin's mind and I just cannot imagine how he decides a complete u-turn is in his best interests. Maybe, just maybe, the Oligarchs can persuade him, but I just cannot see it happening. I'd give it a 1% chance. Terrible odds.

 

[Chippy_boy]

Wish there was a simulation you could run to see different outcomes!

Imagine NATO just called his bluff and went in, the Russian army in Ukraine would surrender or be wiped out.

He plays on the fear of bringing devastation to our countries and it is obviously effective, but there comes a point where that cannot be used as a way to let him pursue his objectives.

Again just putting it out there: What if the man you are dealing with is absolutely very prepared to wipe out most of the human race and has the capability to do so? Or at the very least hundreds of millions of lives. Is that still "worth it" in the persuit of containing Russian expansion for what, 10 years? Putin will not last forever.

Genuine question BTW.

 

[Dadsupportedthem]

Sorry, a bit of light relief..

 

[twosips]

People keep talking about a way out for Putin, but imagine if he keeps going for a minute.

Imagine an occupation like Afghanistan.

Instead of 40 year old soviet weapons the enemy is armed with the best modern technology in the world.

Then imagine there’s a real army of 400,000 to defeat first not an untrained rabble.

Then imagine instead of 1% of the population being against you, it’s more like 80%.

Then imagine that As long as it goes on, your economy is in the worst depression in history and inflation is reaching Zimbabwe levels.

Then imagine how low morale is back home now that you’re kicked out of all international sport, films aren’t released, there’s no gigs because bands don’t tour - not that you could afford it anyway.

People can’t buy a new phone or computer or to unless it’s Chinese. They can’t get parts for your cars. They can’t get flights anywhere.

Tens of thousands of mothers just lose contact with their sons and never hear from them again, never get to bury them or properly mourn.

Every political ally you have just lost 80% of their money and every day a coup is more likely.

This is Vietnam and the Great Depression and North Korea pariah status all in one.

Imagine knowing that you’ll go down as the worst president in the country’s history.

The off ramp is avoiding that. Come up with whatever lie and excuse you need to bring your “Special Military Exercise” to an end.

Or all this effects him so much, enrages him so much, that he lashes out in a quite horrific, desperate manner? Doesn't bear thinking about...

 

[wolviedinho]

The west needs to find a way to take off the snakes head. It will give everyone a way out.

Putins war not Russia’s war. Even if this is not entirely true. Propaganda works both ways.