The perfect fumble
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- 3 Jun 2012
- Messages
- 24,473
I believe he thought he would face similar toothless sanctions to what he faced when he invaded Georgia and annexed Crimea. There’s not a chance he expected exactly what he’s facing right now.
The economy is shagged, absolutely shagged. Our analysts are basically righting off anything based in Russia.
I want this to be the case, but to use the American phrase, there's Wall Street and there's Main Street. Damaging oligarchs I see as a political move rather than an economic one. These robber barons got rich off Putin, they're a support group, hurt them and that support evaporates.
But economic sanctions have such a poor record. This might not be a great analogy, but the Royal Navy blockaded Germany in the First World War, no goods came in to the country via the North Sea and the Channel for over four years, a nation with a population of 67 million in 1914. Yet it took those four years to bring Germany to her knees.
Economic sanctions are not a blockade, people will be inconvenienced but they won't starve. I do so want these economic sanctions to work, but if Putin can spin this as the evil west punishing mother Russia for trying to save fellow Russians from Ukrainian Nazis, it might work in his favour.
Difficult to gauge the zeitgeist in Russia, I suspect, but I don't know, that these sanctions are more about undercutting a specific Putin support group, rather than stirring discontent amongst the general population. To "inconvenience" powerful people in Russia, to motivate them, old time Chicago gangster style, to pull the plug on the man who's bad for business.
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