Russian invasion of Ukraine

[BlueAnorak]

Noel Report's sitrep: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1854289138087788912.html

 

[halfcenturyup]

I don't want to be a doom monger by any means, may not happen.

But that's how I see it at the minute,

Really hope I'm miles wrong

We will see, I suppose, but I imagine Trump's ego will want to see a settlement in Ukraine and in Palestine so he can say he was the only one that could do it.

I don't believe in anything he said in campaigning, but I do believe he obviously has an enormous ego.

If he can settle those without any major loss of face by either party he will be carving his face on Mount Rushmore before you know it.

 

[Blue Llama]

Europe needs to respond accordingly. We simply cannot reply upon the USA anymore.

We never have been able to "rely" on the USA, the so called special relationship has always been on their terms and usually to their advantage.

 

[gordondaviesmoustache]

Clearly like most on here, I am concerned over what Trump may do over Ukraine, stop military aid? or even drop the sanctions? leading to an emboldened Putin. However, we should take some solice that in some ways the world is a much more polarised place these days with China and Russia cosying up. And Trump doesn't like China and the threat it poses to the US economy. Therefore I think it may to be harder for him to see things from Putins perspective. The US also has far greater ties and does much more trade with Europe than it does with a tin pot Russia. It's surely not in the USs interests to alienate Europe. But we shall see, he is certainly unpredictable.

All fair points plus the fact that Russia is significantly weakened - militarily, economically and in terms of its national standing - since Trump left office in 2021 and his ego will mean he will not want to be seen to be capitulating to Putin in those circumstances. So I don’t think it’s a done deal, but as I’ve said previously it falls to Europe to pick up any slack and see this through, at least to a point that Russia is negotiating from a position of relative weakness as they will be far less likely to resile from any settlement in those circumstances.

As an absolute minimum, going forward, Ukraine needs to be given security guarantees by NATO (if not full membership) rendering it to be a de facto member, which Russia will certainly not agree to from a position of relative strength.

 

[BlueAnorak]

We never have been able to "rely" on the USA, the so called special relationship has always been on their terms and usually to their advantage.

We totally rely on the USA so Europeans can spend SFA on defending ourselves!
The reality is defence should always come first. Everything else comes from being secure.

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

We totally rely on the USA so Europeans can spend SFA on defending ourselves!
The reality is defence should always come first. Everything else comes from being secure.

Trump has always had a reasonable point on the NATO 2% spend requirements. Many European countries need to step up and quickly.

 

[halfcenturyup]

So I don’t think it’s a done deal, but as I’ve said previously it falls to Europe to pick up any slack and see this through, at least to a point that Russia is negotiating from a position of relative weakness as they will be far less likely to resile from any settlement in those circumstances.

New word. Thanks :)

 

[BlueAnorak]

Day 988 Review:
https://www.dailykos.com/story/2024...988-first-clashes-between-UKR-and-DPRK-troops

 

[grunge]

Trump has always had a reasonable point on the NATO 2% spend requirements. Many European countries need to step up and quickly.

It was never a requirement tho, just a guide line. and there are clear needs for exceptions like Iceland. a key strategic location with no military.


That being said Europe needs to be closer to its cold war spending.

 

[Bill Walker]

We will see, I suppose, but I imagine Trump's ego will want to see a settlement in Ukraine and in Palestine so he can say he was the only one that could do it.

I don't believe in anything he said in campaigning, but I do believe he obviously has an enormous ego.

If he can settle those without any major loss of face by either party he will be carving his face on Mount Rushmore before you know it.

If he can settle those two wars and save a lot of lives and further misery maybe he deserves his face on there.