1. Because no one on here has claimed Russia is on the ropes, and so your point is somewhat a false equivalence.
2. The endless reserves of Russian recruits is a myth. Loads of fighting age males have fucked off, many never to return and the nation has massive demographic issues which have been hugely accentuated by this conflict.
3.I think it’s more likely to favour Ukraine, yes, because I don’t think Russia can continue in this vein for more than another 18 months.
>> 1. Because no one on here has claimed Russia is on the ropes, and so your point is somewhat a false equivalence.
* Did I claim this? I simply claim that the bulk of the youtube media is constantly making such claims and it's bullshit.
>> 2. The endless reserves of Russian recruits is a myth. Loads of fighting age males have fucked off, many never to return and the nation has massive demographic issues which have been hugely accentuated by this conflict.
* I mostly agree with this. At the same time, there's the perception that the ability for Russia to continue throwing human fodder into the war is nearly at end. And this perception is months and months if not a year or so old. If this is true, then why isn't Ukraine making observable headway in the war?
>> 3.I think it’s more likely to favour Ukraine, yes, because I don’t think Russia can continue in this vein for more than another 18 months.
* I think your point 3 is based on your point 2. You may well be right - but I see no evidence of this. And in fact, the same exact point about Russia being out of troops to throw at Ukraine was stated months and months ago - and nothing's changed on the ground, other than that Ukraine has ceded yet more territory.
In sum - your view may be spot on. Who knows? I for sure don't. Because I don't trust any reporting by popular youtube sites and because there's not enough mainstream journalism that I trust to convince me.
At the same time - I judge the war based on occupied territory - the state of Russian cities versus Ukraine cities. Just how fucked up is life in Russia versus life in Ukraine? All of these indicators - as well as Russia not ceding territory and perhaps making incremental gains - leads me to think that the war is somewhat balanced with Russia holding a slight edge - and at the same time, Russia isn't fully committed to the war - balanced against Putin not being in position (politically) to go full out (for example there's some sort of massive law/taboo against instituting a national draft due to what happened in Afghanistan). My read is that Russia has the advantage and the longer this status quo drags out, the better for Putin - my read, and I may be wrong, but that's the best I can do based on unreliable reporting.
Oh... and one last point - if Putin is actually fucked and knows it, why is he clearly blowing off Trump's peace talk overtures? Putin - for me - wants the war to go on. If this is to his disadvantageous to Russia - why is he acting this way?
