Scottish Independence

[mcfc1632]

It took you a good while to come up with that ;-)

So my answer wasn't to your liking
'On your second point about rejoining the EU, I honestly don't know. I think it would depend just how badly the next couple of years get from both a Brexit perspective and a relationship perspective between the two governments. After all, there was no real guarantees last time and it was hardly a landslide for NO. Given the years since that vote and the absolute shitshow of Westminster politics I really couldn't say. Not every referendum vote is entirely logical after all. Fwiw, I don't think the independence question will be asked unless and until there is a plausible flightpath into the EU.'

I recognise some of the difficulties and there are many more. There is some horse trading to do albeit England would hold a more powerful hand and it is highly unlikely the negotiation would be carried out in a civilised way. Its quite ironic that your arguments are similar to Remainer arguments against leaving the EU and mine could be straight from a Brexiteers lips. That its about more than trade - its taking back control and reasserting our sovereignty! Why do i feel strangely liberated lol.

Its also absolutely possible that I overestimate the anti Tory/Johnson emotions in Scotland. However, how this discussion started, and its a long running theme is you have an absolute belief that once 'Brexit is done' to term a phrase, Scotland wont vote to break up the Union. I remain completely unconvinced by your arguments on that albeit they are logical.

Your point about getting a majority (if I understand what you are trying to say), is exactly the term Sturgeon used 'Scotland prisoner within the UK'. Fwiw, I dont think we will get a referendum anytime soon. I actually don't believe that Sturgeon will want it until she has a more certain chance of winning it. So we will have two years of building a case and pointing out just how bad Brexit/Tory government is in a hope to get the polls consistently looking one way.

My question wasn't meant to distract as I had answered yours. Why not just answer it. I would be interested in your assessment?

My first visit back to this thread since - the outcome of the election has been a distraction

TBF - I had not thought that you had really answered my question at all - but having read this response I will accept that you might have felt you did - even if it was a non-answer. You might say that:

"...... I honestly don't know. I think it would depend just how badly the next couple of years get from both a Brexit perspective and a relationship perspective between the two governments."

Whereas I would not say that I am not so unsure at all - and in fact have a high degree of certainty. I would further say that your response here only confirms my view - as it establishes you as another potential voter in an Indyref2 that at the moment is not thinking beyond the irritation you feel of the moment but as I just commented to @Coatigan:

".....when the implications of Scotland leaving the UK when the UK has already fully left the EU are placed before the Scottish electorate I doubt that a YES vote would reach 30% - so significant are those implications."

Genuinely no offence meant - but I have thought though the consequences/implications and that informs my views - I had thought from your previous responses that you also had and there was more to your views than simple Nationalistic frustration.

Now I really do understand you saying:

"Its quite ironic that your arguments are similar to Remainer arguments against leaving the EU and mine could be straight from a Brexiteers lips. That its about more than trade - its taking back control and reasserting our sovereignty! Why do i feel strangely liberated lol."

In fact if you go back to the start of our exchanges - I was making exactly that point in reverse - that it is strange that Remainers could make the same arguments they do against the UK leaving the EU that would make it mainly impossible for Scotland to leave the UK

But that is really where the comparison ends IMO - and hard facts take over. When you start to debate the many examples - like the only 2 or 3 given above - I am confident that you will come to the objective realisation that I am very likely spot-on.

Another difference is that the Remainers in the EU debate were seeking to achieve something for themselves - to Remain in the EU accordingly they were blinkered. Whereas in the Indyref2 scenario I have no axe of self-interest to grind at all - I am just ambivalent and realistic.

The reality of what I say is that the only chance - IMO - that there was for a Scotland YES vote was for it to happen before the UK left the EU. The UK will have learned a lot from the EU negotiations and the process would start with the negotiation of a WA - before any contemplation of a TA. That would take years and frankly there is no outcome that could see the a positive path for an independent Scotland back into the EU. That is nothing to do with the UK 'doing something mean to Scotland' - just simple facts.

The reality of what you say - IMO and only meaning this as conversational - is that:

a) should the outcome for the UK after Leaving the EU be positive you concede that Scotland would likely not vote to leave

b) should the outcome for the UK after Leaving the EU be 'neutral' you concede that Scotland would likely not vote to leave

c) but should the results for the UK after Leaving the EU be negative - well who knows?? But even in that scenario I cannot see a case to be made - becuase for that to happen then all the issues that could cause that, e.g. poor relationship with the EU and/or barriers to trade etc simply make the difficulties for Scotland even harder

 

[mcfc1632]

The arrogance of some of the English nationalist posters on here is breathtaking. If I were a Scottish unionist I would seriously be considering changing my position when I see the smug attitude from those that think that they personally subsidise Scotland out of their own pockets. The reason cash needs to flow north and west from London to Scotland, Wales and the English regions is down to government policy, not because of grasping jocks. If every Scot working in London could take their work with them and move it to Scotland, the 7% deficit would disappear overnight. If Scotland gained independence from the UK and managed to get a promise of membership from the EU subject to meeting the deficit requirements, it would disappear in next to no time when UK companies who mostly trade with Europe move some of their operations up there to enable single market access.

Well - that is really something of an achievement

That is likely the most ill-thought through post of yours that I have seen for a while - and that PB really does speak volumes

 

[mcfc1632]

Im not fussed if you included me or not, im still asking the question.

Who are English nationalists on here?

What does it even mean?

You are forgetting...….

Irish and Scottish nationalism is something to be admired and be proud off

English citizens having the temerity to comment on what is in their interests (nothing that could actually be described as English nationalism) is disgraceful - even to English people that are seeking to score poorly considered points

 

[Saddleworth2]

My first visit back to this thread since - the outcome of the election has been a distraction

TBF - I had not thought that you had really answered my question at all - but having read this response I will accept that you might have felt you did - even if it was a non-answer. You might say that:

"...... I honestly don't know. I think it would depend just how badly the next couple of years get from both a Brexit perspective and a relationship perspective between the two governments."

Whereas I would not say that I am not so unsure at all - and in fact have a high degree of certainty. I would further say that your response here only confirms my view - as it establishes you as another potential voter in an Indyref2 that at the moment is not thinking beyond the irritation you feel of the moment but as I just commented to @Coatigan:

".....when the implications of Scotland leaving the UK when the UK has already fully left the EU are placed before the Scottish electorate I doubt that a YES vote would reach 30% - so significant are those implications."

Genuinely no offence meant - but I have thought though the consequences/implications and that informs my views - I had thought from your previous responses that you also had and there was more to your views than simple Nationalistic frustration.

Now I really do understand you saying:

"Its quite ironic that your arguments are similar to Remainer arguments against leaving the EU and mine could be straight from a Brexiteers lips. That its about more than trade - its taking back control and reasserting our sovereignty! Why do i feel strangely liberated lol."

In fact if you go back to the start of our exchanges - I was making exactly that point in reverse - that it is strange that Remainers could make the same arguments they do against the UK leaving the EU that would make it mainly impossible for Scotland to leave the UK

But that is really where the comparison ends IMO - and hard facts take over. When you start to debate the many examples - like the only 2 or 3 given above - I am confident that you will come to the objective realisation that I am very likely spot-on.

Another difference is that the Remainers in the EU debate were seeking to achieve something for themselves - to Remain in the EU accordingly they were blinkered. Whereas in the Indyref2 scenario I have no axe of self-interest to grind at all - I am just ambivalent and realistic.

The reality of what I say is that the only chance - IMO - that there was for a Scotland YES vote was for it to happen before the UK left the EU. The UK will have learned a lot from the EU negotiations and the process would start with the negotiation of a WA - before any contemplation of a TA. That would take years and frankly there is no outcome that could see the a positive path for an independent Scotland back into the EU. That is nothing to do with the UK 'doing something mean to Scotland' - just simple facts.

The reality of what you say - IMO and only meaning this as conversational - is that:

a) should the outcome for the UK after Leaving the EU be positive you concede that Scotland would likely not vote to leave

b) should the outcome for the UK after Leaving the EU be 'neutral' you concede that Scotland would likely not vote to leave

c) but should the results for the UK after Leaving the EU be negative - well who knows?? But even in that scenario I cannot see a case to be made - becuase for that to happen then all the issues that could cause that, e.g. poor relationship with the EU and/or barriers to trade etc simply make the difficulties for Scotland even harder

‘There is no such uncertainty as a sure thing’
Robert Burns

 

[mcfc1632]

It means those that are quite happy to see the end of the UK union as a consequence of Brexit, and are either hostile or ambivalent to Scotland and NI remaining part of the UK because they take offence at Sturgeon's views and begrudge the fact that there is a flow of money from the UK to Scotland and NI. It doesn't take too much reading of this thread to work out who falls into this category.

Do you not grasp the irony of your comment that I have bolded?

It is clearly you taking your Brexit stance too far and getting things out of context.

The SNP stance on Indyref long predates the referendum - its genesis is not in Brexit

 

[mcfc1632]

I don't understand your latter point. Why will UK companies move to Scotland to get single market access? The whole point of the next Brexit phase is to negotiate single market access. Even Canada has single market access.

Scotlands two major export destinations are the rest of the UK and the USA. If Scotland leaves, they will lose out on UK trade and they will lose out on any benefits gained from a future US trade deal.

They trade almost 10x more with the UK than they do with the entirety of the EU.

Leaving the UK would be a total disaster for them.

It was just an ill-thought through rant

The reality is that a major part of Scotland's export is financial services and 7/8ths of that goes to the rest of the UK. RBS were clear in 2014 that they would have to relocate to London should the Indyref be a Yes.

And UK companies moving to Scotland for SM access - just what bollocks is that???

Setting aside the laughable assumption of Scotland having SM access - given the need for the border down the Irish sea issue that we have seen as evidence of the EU's protection of the SM - why the fuck would UK companies move to Scotland and deliberately give themselves the challenges of delivering through 2 sets of border controls. Those considering the need to address that issue have probably already relocated 'directly' into the SM.

 

[west didsblue]

Having just seen the volume of shite emanating from the unfettered Brexit bullshitter all night including quite a few posts directed at comments made by myself I can only conclude that the poor sod needs to get himself a life and stop obsessing about my opinions. It’s quite sad really to see someone so obsessed that he makes up things that haven’t been said so he can argue against them.

 

[mcfc1632]

Canada doesn't have single market access for services. The large financial institutions in London are already moving some operations to the EU to maintain their position. Having Edinburgh as an option would likely be attractive to them.

That is just bollocks - utter bollocks

They might - and some have - move to Dublin, Paris of Frankfurt - there has been zero consideration given to Edinburgh. You don't understand what you are commenting on I am afraid and forget 2 key points...….

1. Ahead of the 2014 the RBS said that given that 7/8th of Scotland's financial services was with the rest of the UK they would have to relocate to England if there was a Yes vote - and more importantly

2. Before there could be any 2nd Indyref then any organisation that felt it needs to relocate from London will have already long ago done so - so just what fucking logic is there to suggest that they would do so again to go to Scotland?

 

[mcfc1632]

Some will think rude fucker others will think I don’t blame him he was rather tedious.

Does Blackford ever say anything different?

 

[mcfc1632]

Having just seen the volume of shite emanating from the unfettered Brexit bullshitter all night including quite a few posts directed at comments made by myself I can only conclude that the poor sod needs to get himself a life and stop obsessing about my opinions. It’s quite sad really to see someone so obsessed that he makes up things that haven’t been said so he can argue against them.

It seems that you doth protest too much - you have been stalking me for years with snide one-liners.

Unlike you - I am posting detail and facts - you should try it.