Scottish Independence

Saddleworth2 said:
Let me ask you a more fundamental question. What scenario would need to be in place for the Scots to drop all this silly nonsense? How would the UK look politically and what would have to be in place to satisfy the Scottish desire to have its voice heard as an equal part of the Union?
Then ask how yourself how likely is that scenario to be in place within a decade. Its a rhetorical question as you and i both know that scenario will not happen and given that, we have significant constitutional tension until that scenario is in place.

The fundamental political values are now too different between the two countries for any easy reconciliation. Brexit has widened an already significant delta. The more Johnston is Johnston, the bigger the delta between the two countries will become and the stronger the nationalistic views will become on both sides. Do you really think Boris Johnson will bring us together? - he is far more likely to want to 'tough it out'. Remember this is a man that creates 'enemies and targets' to win elections. He is already starting to move against those that stood in his way. I fully expect the matter of a second referendum to end up in the courts of both countries. So you see, I see this as an acceleration of the last 5 years or so - I think there is little chance that Scotland will be more supportive of the Union after three years of Brexit and Johnson. Quite the reverse.

On your second point about rejoining the EU, I honestly don't know. I think it would depend just how badly the next couple of years get from both a Brexit perspective and a relationship perspective between the two governments. After all, there was no real guarantees last time and it was hardly a landslide for NO. Given the years since that vote and the absolute shitshow of Westminster politics I really couldn't say. Not every referendum vote is entirely logical after all. Fwiw, I don't think the independence question will be asked unless and until there is a plausible flightpath into the EU.

At the end of the day we are miles apart in believing just how badly independence tensions between England and Scotland might be impacted by the approach taken by the respective governments and how that might impact any second vote. What a bloody mess.
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I am happy to deal with/answer any point, but I am first seeking to get a clear answer to the point/question that I have put to you:

"Do you really think that after the UK has fully left the Union of the EU and that decision has been implemented - that Scotland, in let's say 2024, would vote to also Leave the Union of the UK - without any guaranteed, or at least highly plausible, path back into the EU."

Because I do not - so can you just answer this direct question rather than distract onto other areas please.

My view is cemented when I consider what challenges would be facing a 'liberated Scotland' as it sought to plot any such path. Let's just rehearse a couple of the anti-Brexit arguments:

Trade - well we have heard for years the importance of trading with existing and nearby markets. In 2015 Scotland's exports were £79bn - of which £50bn went to the rest of the UK - and that dependency has increased since 2016. of the remaining £29bn about half went to the EU - and a lot of that was dependent on shipping via what would remain UK infrastructure following an Indyref2 - with all sorts of implications as goods would need to progress through 2 borders.

More on Trade - also in 2015 - “Financial and insurance activities” were the most valuable export services for Scotland and of the £8.8bn - a whopping £86% went to the rest of the UK.

Borders - the boat was well and truly missed in 2014. A successful Indyref then would have seen the position largely unchanged as both the UK and the newly independent Scotland would have been in the EU. But we have seen the priority given to 'protecting the EU single market' by the EU with the ROI/N.I. border - just what the fuck would a newly independent Scotland do to convince the EU that the border with the UK presented no risk to the SM? Imagine the WA negotiations between the UK and Scotland - which of course would have to be completed ahead of any TA.

There is plenty more - but it is not needed.

Setting aside nationalist sentiment, I can see no way that Scotland would vote to leave the UK if the UK had already 'genuinely' left the EU - FFS they can hardly get a majority in these pre-Brexit days.
 
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inbetween said:
UK tax revenues from oil are what a couple of billion of £ if that? And a small proportion of that won't goto Scotland.

They'll lose that amount just in devaluation of whatever currency they dream up.

If you think that the UK leaving the EU is a mistake then Scotland leaving the UK is an even bigger one.
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It just is not going to happen.

Once the UK has left the EU and the implications for Scotland then leaving the UK are brought out into the open - there is simply no way the canny Scots are going to vote to make themselves considerably poorer
 
Ifwecouldjust....... said:
Wouldn't just be tax revenue though would it? they'd get the profit from the sale as well.

And as oil is traded in dollars cant see that would be a problem to them .


it's estimated that theres at least a £Trillion of the West Coast alone.

Scotland want out mate... they've had enough of Tory rule..... and good luck to them
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Your outright hatred of all things Tory seems to render you incapable of objective analysis
 
mcfc1632 said:
I am happy to deal with/answer any point, but I am first seeking to get a clear answer to the point/question that I have put to you:

"Do you really think that after the UK has fully left the Union of the EU and that decision has been implemented - that Scotland, in let's say 2024, would vote to also Leave the Union of the UK - without any guaranteed, or at least highly plausible, path back into the EU."

Because I do not - so can you just answer this direct question rather than distract onto other areas please.

My view is cemented when I consider what challenges would be facing a 'liberated Scotland' as it sought to plot any such path. Let's just rehearse a couple of the anti-Brexit arguments:

Trade - well we have heard for years the importance of trading with existing and nearby markets. In 2015 Scotland's exports were £79bn - of which £50bn went to the rest of the UK - and that dependency has increased since 2016. of the remaining £29bn about half went to the EU - and a lot of that was dependent on shipping via what would remain UK infrastructure following an Indyref2 - with all sorts of implications as goods would need to progress through 2 borders.

More on Trade - also in 2015 - “Financial and insurance activities” were the most valuable export services for Scotland and of the £8.8bn - a whopping £86% went to the rest of the UK.

Borders - the boat was well and truly missed in 2014. A successful Indyref then would have seen the position largely unchanged as both the UK and the newly independent Scotland would have been in the EU. But we have seen the priority given to 'protecting the EU single market' by the EU with the ROI/N.I. border - just what the fuck would a newly independent Scotland do to convince the EU that the border with the UK presented no risk to the SM? Imagine the WA negotiations between the UK and Scotland - which of course would have to be completed ahead of any TA.

There is plenty more - but it is not needed.

Setting aside nationalist sentiment, I can see no way that Scotland would vote to leave the UK if the UK had already 'genuinely' left the EU - FFS they can hardly get a majority in these pre-Brexit days.
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It took you a good while to come up with that ;-)

So my answer wasn't to your liking
'On your second point about rejoining the EU, I honestly don't know. I think it would depend just how badly the next couple of years get from both a Brexit perspective and a relationship perspective between the two governments. After all, there was no real guarantees last time and it was hardly a landslide for NO. Given the years since that vote and the absolute shitshow of Westminster politics I really couldn't say. Not every referendum vote is entirely logical after all. Fwiw, I don't think the independence question will be asked unless and until there is a plausible flightpath into the EU.'

I recognise some of the difficulties and there are many more. There is some horse trading to do albeit England would hold a more powerful hand and it is highly unlikely the negotiation would be carried out in a civilised way. Its quite ironic that your arguments are similar to Remainer arguments against leaving the EU and mine could be straight from a Brexiteers lips. That its about more than trade - its taking back control and reasserting our sovereignty! Why do i feel strangely liberated lol.

Its also absolutely possible that I overestimate the anti Tory/Johnson emotions in Scotland. However, how this discussion started, and its a long running theme is you have an absolute belief that once 'Brexit is done' to term a phrase, Scotland wont vote to break up the Union. I remain completely unconvinced by your arguments on that albeit they are logical.

Your point about getting a majority (if I understand what you are trying to say), is exactly the term Sturgeon used 'Scotland prisoner within the UK'. Fwiw, I dont think we will get a referendum anytime soon. I actually don't believe that Sturgeon will want it until she has a more certain chance of winning it. So we will have two years of building a case and pointing out just how bad Brexit/Tory government is in a hope to get the polls consistently looking one way.

My question wasn't meant to distract as I had answered yours. Why not just answer it. I would be interested in your assessment?
 
Coatigan said:
All been covered, so i'll limit the repetition best i can.

Yes, indeed. And that is the point, for many, it shouldn't have.

So while that is what happened, i hope you can understand why i beleive it to be wrong. And as such, can't help feeling wronged.

And yes, ive read the arguements otherwise, and recognise some of the logic, but that is how i feel about it.
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I can fully understand you feeling wronged

But you come across as a balanced chap - and therefore when there is another opportunity for Scotland to decide - let's say 2024 or beyond - I would be surprised if you do not vote to Remain

I have no axe to grind either way - it is for Scotland to decide is my view.

But when the implications of Scotland leaving the UK when the UK has already fully left the EU are placed before the Scottish electorate I doubt that a YES vote would reach 30% - so significant are those implications
 
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