Semi finals (City v Real and A Madrid v Bayern)

Eds said:
Can some Maths whizz work out the odds on both Bayern and Real being kept apart and both having home ties in the second leg...
Click to expand...
This is symmetrical wrt being kept apart, so let's look at Bayern.

Bayern must either draw City, Madrid or Atletico with equal probability.

So the odds of Bayern being separate from Madrid are 2 in 3.

The chance of Bayern having a home tie in the 2nd leg is 1 in 2 (by "home tie" I assume you mean that they're playing the 2nd match at home). Same goes for Madrid. (I assume that the home versus away decision is made in some random fashion with equal probability of either outcome).

So the probability you asked for is 2/3 * 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/6 = a bit over 16.5% or roughly 17% as kenzie115 states above.
 
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Would have preferred Atletico simply because I couldn't see them beating us comfortably. Real at their very best could. Having said that, Wolfsburg should have scored 4/5 in that first leg, and when Roma played them at the Bernabeu, they missed 2 sitters early on. If Kompany is back and fully fit, I fancy us to beat them!
 
Glad, we avoided A Madrid, a nightmare over 2 legs as they know how not to lose, however fancy us in a one off final as its a game you've got to play to win
 
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