Sergio Aguero leaves City after 10 years

BlueMoonAcrossThePond said:
Although I hope so - Haaland to City seems unlikely.
www.thesun.co.uk

Erling Haaland transfer odds - Man City lead Chelsea & Man Utd for striker

MANCHESTER CITY are the leading contenders to sign Borussia Dortmund superstar Erling Haaland. Sky Bet have Pep Guardiola’s side way out in front as 2/1 favourites. SKY BET – GET £20 IN…
www.thesun.co.uk www.thesun.co.uk
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If that's true, it's very disappointing. He'd score a shitload of goals in our side. Will that shitshow in Porto ultimately cost us in the chase for him?
 
jimharri said:
If that's true, it's very disappointing. He'd score a shitload of goals in our side. Will that shitshow in Porto ultimately cost us in the chase for him?
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You would like to think not. Is them being European champions a pull? Quite possibly, I’d hope him and Alfie have enough to know about them that it shouldn’t be the be all and end all. Even more so how defensive they are as a team
 
BlueMoonAcrossThePond said:
Bookie odds are usually the best reflection of what might occur in the future - as money is on the line.
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Bookie odds also change very quickly when the story changes too, as anyone following the odds of Koulibaly, Pogba, Sanchez to name just 3 would tell you.
They follow the money the money follows stories put out on twitter and the gossip columns , usually made up by KFAs.
 
blueparrot said:
Bookie odds also change very quickly when the story changes too, as anyone following the odds of Koulibaly, Pogba, Sanchez to name just 3 would tell you.
They follow the money the money follows stories put out on twitter and the gossip columns , usually made up by KFAs.
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You're free to disagree with the bookies with your own money - get it right most times and you're going to be rich.

Moreover, anyone at all who gets it right most times is going to be rich.

Trouble is, bookie odds are hard to beat - and reflect the best guess of what's going to happen.
 
BlueMoonAcrossThePond said:
You're free to disagree with the bookies with your own money - get it right most times and you're going to be rich.

Moreover, anyone at all who gets it right most times is going to be rich.

Trouble is, bookie odds are hard to beat - and reflect the best guess of what's going to happen.
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That”s not how it works the odds follow the money, thats how bookies make money. Not by guessing what’s going to happen.
 
blueparrot said:
That”s not how it works the odds follow the money, thats how bookies make money. Not by guessing what’s going to happen.
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As I've said - if you can beat the odds on a consistent basis - and by "you" I mean anyone - then you're going to be fabulously, enormously rich. Trouble is, you cannot - nor can anyone else.

Betting odds are the best predictor of outcome - if some other better predictor existed, then quickly bettors would pursue the alternative, higher success predictor.

Betting is a free market open exchange of ideas about outcome. It's self-correcting to best prediction.

Which isn't to say that odds are infallible - it's simply to say that in the judgement of those who have a personal stake in the outcome and who collectively are striving for financial gain - that odds reflect the best guess at what is most likely to occur.
 
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BlueMoonAcrossThePond said:
As I've said - if you can beat the odds on a consistent basis - and by "you" I mean anyone - then you're going to be fabulously, enormously rich. Trouble is, you cannot - nor can anyone else.

Betting odds are the best predictor of outcome - if some other better predictor existed, then quickly betters would pursue the alternative, higher success predictor.

Betting is a free market open exchange of predictive outcome. It's self-correcting to best prediction.
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As noted in previous threads the transfer betting market is quiet small only takes a few bets to shift the odds and they follow the media. You obviously weren’t watching the day / night the KDB odds were swinging all over the place with every quote / misquote that came out. That wasn’t bookies predicting it was odds reacting to twitter and media quotes.
In fact if you want to make money best betting on players not moving because most don’t. Still if you think it’s a guide to what will happen go ahead and bet on it.
 
blueparrot said:
As noted in previous threads the transfer betting market is quiet small only takes a few bets to shift the odds and they follow the media. You obviously weren’t watching the day / night the KDB odds were swinging all over the place with every quote / misquote that came out. That wasn’t bookies predicting it was odds reacting to twitter and media quotes.
In fact if you want to make money best betting on players not moving because most don’t. Still if you think it’s a guide to what will happen go ahead and bet on it.
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You've noted a possible money making position - bet on players not moving, since, you seem to believe, bookie odds undervalue players remaining at their present club. Do you think that you're onto a winning strategy - most often correct in spite of the odds? If so, you're going to be fabulously rich. Hugely so. Bill Gates rich.

On the other hand, I rather think that you have at best, a guess. Put your money on the line and become rich if you really think that this - or any other strategy you might come up with - will win you money over the long term (or, quite frankly, do not, if you're addicted to gambling as you'll soon part with all your savings).
 
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