Southampton (A) Post-Match Thread

[Roachy]

This Season is over and has been for some time
We rebuild pending FFP Decision
And go in the Cups
4 trophies out of the last 6,
Its been great Entertainment
But things go wrong
People have to take the rough with the smooth

Fair points but let's not brush over what we differed on, 9 defeats for this team is poor which ever way you dress it up.

 

[Kun T. B. Horlocks]

Chin up petal, it could be worse we could have Ole at the wheel.

Love you too sweetie ;)

 

[chaddblue]

Yet above them all in the league.

They would swap in a heartbeat.

You’re right mate, but it’s a major concern to lose so many games.. and I bet like tonight at least half a dozen of those we totally dominated, missed a hatful of chances, then gifted the opponents a goal

But we can see it, so pep can too and he’ll sort it out

 

[give it to gordon]

I'm not convinced that a forward line of Sterling, Mahrez and Jesus imposes itself on a game enough to justify continuing with it. Very poor tonight.

Us fans will never agree but I think that forward line was ok I was more worried when I saw our midfield to be honest. The midfield hadnt played much and looked rusty.

 

[come-on-barney]

Never really sure why you don’t start with the eleven to win the game rather than bringing them on later.

 

[BLUEMATT23]

Liverpool lost only 1 game last season and they still didn’t win the league.
All them teams you mention would gladly swap positions with us.

Your missing the posters point
9 defeats is disappointing for this squad but having heard Bernardo Silvas post match comments sounded as though it doesnt matter to the team.

 

[argyle]

Your missing the posters point
9 defeats is disappointing for this squad but having heard Bernardo Silvas post match comments sounded as though it doesnt matter to the team.

What did he say?

 

[waspish]

Had enough chances to win but Pep is giving players playing time while resting the ones he knows we will need for the important games. Now if we lose in the fa cup that’s a different matter that’s a game that’s very important.

 

[Ardwick Green Blue]

As a team 'in transition' I have to say I'm very concerned with what we are transitioning to. Who will be the new Kompany, Fernandinho, David Silva & El Kun Aguero for starters? Where are the new top level / world class additions? Cancelo, Mendy, Rodri, Jesus and other just aren't at the level we had previously. Apart from Foden I just don't see the voids in the squad being filled.

 

[kun]

Goals win games.

Leading goal scorers but it's our weakness !!

This forum hasn't the ability to analyze.

Good night.

Fuck me the arrogance of you.

We have problems defensively and we have problems finishing chances when Agüero is out (and even sometimes when he's fit).

You want analysis?

City have created 85.27 expected goals (xG) this season, 4 above our actual numbers of goals scored.
Liverpool have created 66.16 xG, 6 below the actual number.

City's defensive xG is 34.05, almost dead on the 34 goals conceded.
Liverpools defensive xG is 32.78 (Just over 1 goal less than City), but they have only conceded 25.

These changes lead to City's expected points being 8.37 higher than our real tally.
While Liverpool's expected points are 22.91 lower than reality.

An analysis of the things that have cost us this season amount to:
- Defensive frailties
- Missing chances
- Injuries
- Misfortune

Our defensive numbers are actually similar to Liverpool, while we are creating so many more opportunities than any other team. We should be leading.
There is obviously an argument about xG and how, especially defensively, it favours teams who get lot's of men behind the ball, as xG doesn't account for the number of players goal side of the ball. Teams like Burnley often over perform in xG. This could explain Liverpool's insane stats, but it doesn't completely. Stats like Liverpool's (exceeding xG by a ridiculous margin) is unsustainable as it relies on players to finish many difficult chances and rarely or never miss very good chances. Some of it has to be put down to fortune.

However, it highlights that creatively we are the best team in the Premier League by a long way and our sheer number of goals is not solely or even mainly the work of our forwards but the invention of our midfield. Defensively, our team is far more exposed than teams who keep numbers behind the ball and will often concede around the xG. We need to help lower our defensive xG while trying to actually meet our own attacking xG or even exceed it next season. Lowering our defensive xG will come from hopefully quality reinforcements at centre-back and possibly left-back while Foden / Bernardo should be able to cover the advancing LB much more efficiently than David Silva.