Spurs (H) - Post-Match Thread

[bigalfromeccles]

Well ive open critised Cancelo for most of the season and he had another stinker yesterday...Also for years Spurs and Everton have been a measure for us to win the league (generally)..Everton next week and the other zxats have done the double...But we have to win the next two and get over it quickly

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

Na son, fuckin realist. Happy clappin w@nkpot

Few beers tonight fella? Thought so, twat

I'd like to see him say that to your face on a match day etc.

 

[Bazzmand Show]

I'll say it one last time, Pep should have brought Delap on.

It was weak management not sticking him on, end of.

 

[1966]

View attachment 36920

funny… the experts don’t agree

Although I think you're right that City are still heavy favourites, this isn't how betting works. Expert opinion and predictive modelling have nothing to do with it. But don't worry, almost everyone goes through a phase of believing that bookies win by being better at predicting events than punters (hell, most people never get out of that phase -- even the most frequent football gamblers I know don't really understand how gambling works). Bookies don't predict anything[1]: the prices are set by supply and demand. The more people who bet on an outcome, the lower the bookies set the price, and vice-versa -- rendering the whole odds thing one giant popularity contest.

I suppose you could argue that there's a sort of crowdsourced expertise going on there, but the average punter is far from an expert gambler, leading to mediocre prices relative to the actual probabilities of the outcomes. Any genuine expertise is drowned out by the sheer volume of casuals, weekend warriors, random-chancers, and so on. (Incidentally, this is how "professional" gamblers and true expert analysts play the game: they don't bet on the events they think will occur; they bet on the events that they think are significantly more likely to occur than their current price suggests.)

As well as the supply and demand shite, there's a load of money-grubbing maths involved, all of which is now done programmatically by computers, They put a bunch of variables into a formula. including the odds and the amount of money on each outcome. and the program spits out odds recommendations that ensure they make money no matter what happens. It's called an overround and it's how the house almost[2] always wins, similar to the zero on a standard roulette table (they offer you odds of 1:36 when the actual odds are 1:37, slowly resulting in inevitable loss for everyone over time). Sneaky house edges are why I have no interest in gambling.

As for the odds you posted, I wouldn't be surprised if there was a big post-game flutter of activity on City among savvy gamblers who believe that City are going to win the league and wanted to exploit the reactionary counteractivity on Liverpool.

[1] They may use predictive models up to a point, to try to refine their overround priorities and generally get more accurate internal info (e.g. how to set initial prices), but a bettor is never going head to head with the bookies' predictions.

[2] I say "almost" because unlike a roulette table, real world events, the cumulative patterns of wildly different bettors, and the algorithmic mathematics involved are too complex to guarantee that they make money, even with a massive overround. When the system fails, you get those glorious stories of bookies losing stacks, as they (probably) deserve. Unfortunately, as I'm sure most people know, the cunts aren't even legally obliged to pay out -- at least not in the UK.

(Sorry for the long-winded post but I think it's important footy gamblers understand what they're in to and the vast majority simply don't.)

 

[Bobby the blue]

I’m genuinely gutted tonight. I’ve been out all day within my mates on an all dayer the first in years. I’ve been looking forward to it for weeks. We watched the game in the pub and I’m genuinely upset with what happened tonight. Ruined the night for me. I may not have grown up on the streets of moss side/didsbury or wythenshaw but that game has hurt me. We looked very vulnerable tonight and although we can controlled a large amount of the game I felt that spurs could counter us at will and sour grapes it maybe they ain’t that good.

I love this club and all that it is. I have read some of the crap that has been written in that god awful thread about opions you have on city that may be uncomfortable. Most of it is completely rubbish or myths or outrageousness. This football club and it’s fans is amazing and we should never forget that. Tonight has hurt and I’ve had way too much of the razzle dazzle but we need to stick together the next few months because the race is on

Ctid.

 

[chaddblue]

Although I think you're right that City are still heavy favourites, this isn't how betting works. Expert opinion and predictive modelling have nothing to do with it. But don't worry, almost everyone goes through a phase of believing that bookies win by being better at predicting events than punters (hell, most people never get out of that phase -- even the most frequent football gamblers I know don't really understand how gambling works). Bookies don't predict anything[1]: the prices are set by supply and demand. The more people who bet on an outcome, the lower the bookies set the price, and vice-versa -- rendering the whole odds thing one giant popularity contest. I suppose you could argue that there's a sort of crowdsourced expertise going on there, but the average punter is far from an expert gambler, leading to mediocre prices relative to the actual probabilities of the outcomes. Any genuine expertise is drowned out by the sheer volume of casuals, weekend warriors, random-chancers, and so on. (Incidentally, this is how "professional" gamblers and true expert analysts play the game: they don't bet on the events they think will occur; they bet on the events that they think are more likely to occur than their current price suggests.)

As well as the supply and demand shite, there's a load of money-grubbing maths involved, all of which is now done programmatically by computers, They put a bunch of variables into a formula. including the odds and the amount of money on each outcome. and the program spits out odds recommendations that ensure they make money no matter what happens. It's called an overround and it's how the house almost[2] always wins, similar to the zero on a standard roulette table (they offer you odds of 1:36 when the actual odds are 1:37, slowly resulting in inevitable loss for everyone over time). Sneaky house edges are why I have no interest in gambling.

[1] They may use predictive models up to a point, to try to refine their overround priorities and generally get more accurate internal info (e.g. how to set initial prices), but a bettor is never going head to head with the bookies' predictions.

[2] I say "almost" because unlike a roulette table, real world events, the cumulative patterns of wildly different bettors, and the algorithmic mathematics involved are too completed to guarantee that they make money, even with a massive overround. When the system fails, you get those glorious stories of bookies losing stacks, as they (probably) deserve. Unfortunately, as I'm sure most people know, the cunts aren't even legally obliged to pay out -- at least not in the UK.

(Sorry for the long-winded post but I think it's important footy gamblers understand what they're in to and the vast majority simply don't.)

Okay.. just going with the supply and demand angle, surely the bookies would have the dippers as odds on favourites seeing as there’s probably been millions of giddy deluded Liverpool fans lumping on their team since the final whistle at the Etihad?

 

[1966]

Imagine some slagging off “finished” Kane for months, he would be an absolute killer in this team. Exactly what we are missing.

The irony of that shit-tier opinion is that the predominant reason Kane's taken so long to get going this season is his disappointment at not getting his move (and, of course, falling at the final hurdle at Euro 2020). You'd think City fans would be more sympathetic given his situation and stated desires.

And, yeah. Kane would break PL goal records every season at City. Golden Shoes, which typically don't come to PL players, wouldn't be off the table either.

 

[1966]

Okay.. just going with the supply and demand angle, surely the bookies would have the dippers as odds on favourites seeing as there’s probably been millions of giddy deluded Liverpool fans lumping on their team since the final whistle at the Etihad?

Good question/point. Indeed, the odds suggest that those Liverpool fans still aren't confident enough to put significant money on winning, no matter what they say. Hell, the odds suggest that virtually everyone is still convinced that City are a shoe-in. Of course, it's not possible to extract the experts and well-informed bettors from the chancers who simply look at the table and bet on the frontrunner, but 1/5 is pretty much a consensus, regardless of expertise. 1/5 is long past the point where I would put anything down even when I did gamble: at that price, they're trying to convince people not to bet on MC, so they can get their overround, because the weight of public opinion is so strongly in favour of MC.

FWIW, I was a pretty good gambler while I was involved. I made several grand net profit predicting political events over a few years (best result was predicting the 2017 GE to within 8 seats, at 17/1). Frankly, as a footy neutral, if I was going to make a bet, I'd probably lob on Liverpool, simply because I think their chances are slightly better than 7/2. That's true value betting, as the pros do. But good betting has little to do with what you think is most likely to happen.

(I did mention that some smarter gamblers who also believe in City may have further depressed City's odds by trying to vulture off of a slight post-match bounce back for Liverpool - which would, in turn, imply that some people were confident enough to take a shot on Liv - but that's sheer idle speculation on my part without at least a price history chart.)

Edit: Btw, with the sportsbooks betting market being so much slower than serious markets (trading, investments etc.). we might see some of this shift slightly over the next few days. That's when we'll really see if people are predicting a momentum shift en masse. But I doubt it'll happen in any big way. :)

 

[1966]

Thought Kane had a spinal injury?

I know your post is probably somewhat facetious but it looked like a pretty minor knock (to his back, not his spine). He went off, got a quick diagnosis and a good spraying, and then carried on. I'm sure some of the Spurs players were just trying to waste time. but I don't think Kane was one of them. I watch every game in which he plays and I've almost never seen him stay down and call for the medics, let alone just to waste time (regardless of the situation. including when Mourinho was telling him to "be a ****"). Before today, I can't remember the last time he had to leave the pitch with a medic that didn't end in him being sidelined because of some injury to his legs or ankles or whatever.

At one point, before he got a little bit of the dark arts drilled into him by managers and coachers, he took all kinds of punishment and tried to play on, including after getting booted in the head in this particularly egregious red-card offence by Bruno Alves:


Sure, Kane embellishes now, sadly, like almost all players (which isn't a valid excuse), but he's still one of the cleaner players on that Spurs team and in the league generally. He's made some mistakes like all elite players of his calibre but the idea of him being some kind of extra-dirty player seems to be a rival club myth. Son's actually a dirtier player than Kane because he lets the red mist descend.

God, I wish the problem of simulation in "divegrass" could be solved forever but I don't see how it could happen. Refs seem to have adopted the cornerstone of the Western common law judicial system on this: that it's better to see a hundred guilty men go free than to persecute a single innocent. But it's football, not life or death, so I would've thought yellow cards for simulation could be handed out like candy with minimal issue (maybe avoid double yellows where possible). Oops, sorry for going off topic. I'm still not sure whether your OP was sincere or not, but there were enough similar posts in the thread that I wanted to do a generic response/

 

[Keeper!]

Poor and sloppy performance but has this not been coming for a few weeks?

The title race was never over, far too many people on here thought it was, Liverpool will lose very few points until the end of the season.

If we are to retain the title we will have to produce far more than we did tonight.