The Conservative Party

Chippy_boy said:
If energy costs actually decrease then potentially inflation will fall dramatically, possibly even become negative.
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Highly unlikely that they will fall in the foreseeable future. CPI may fall a bit but prices for food etc are already embedded and are unlikely to fall to levels we are used to. Also as mortgage and inevitable rent rises kick in then CPIH will continue to be high.
 
Chippy_boy said:
Re your question, obviously markets are in part about fundamentals, but more so these days about sentiment. And in that context, I have to confess I am puzzled why the pound fell as it did. Although I expect it will recover.

There seem to be some strange dynamics going on at the moment. For a start, people do not seem to be recognising that inflation is really not our main issue right now. You have two types of inflation - supply side and demand side. Traditionally, inflation is about too much demand for not enough supply, and prices therefore go up. The normal response to address this is higher interest rates, to reduce peoples' available funds, and to encourage them to save their money - both of which depress demand and lower inflation.

But this is different, it's not about excess demand, it's about structural adjustment to supply costs. Costs of supply have gone up, resulting in high inflation figures. Demand has not got up.

Therefore, raising interest rates, is preciseky the wrong thing to do. Our big risk is recession, not inflation. Inflation will naturally return to low single figures once supply costs stabilize - even if stabilizing at a higher level. If energy costs actually decrease then potentially inflation will fall dramatically, possibly even become negative.

The problem is helping support demand, helping people to pay their bills and have enough left over to buy stuff. For that, we need to keep interest rates low, not put them up!. What on earth is the point of Truss giving the average person a four or five hundred pounds in their back pocket to spend, when a 0.5% interest rate rise could take 2x that off people in terms of increased mortgage cost?

I am surprised the BoE doesn't seem to recognise this. But then again it has a very limited brief, to control inflation. And only 1 tool in the box to do it, interest rates. Nevertheless they should not be putting rates up right now.

My guess - to finally answer your question - is that the markets fear the tax cuts will fuel further interest rate rises.
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Cheers for that.

I do think that much of the response is just simple lack of trust in the govt plan - it does seem to have bet everything on there actually being a sufficient upturn to make back the guaranteed tax income they've foregone and the funding they've put in, and that seems an awfully big bet to have taken.
 
Chippy_boy said:
Hehehehehe

You have no idea do you, not one tiny little clue. I do find the bitterness of some lefties like you, very sad. I am not rich, nor am I banker. I am just a regular employee like you, but unlike you I don't have one massive chip on my shoulder and I don't resent people who are much better off than me.
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But you have swallowed the tory narrative. and it's not about bitterness for most people, it's about fairness. If he had chosen to raise the tax thresholds, thereby removing the nasty and regressive fiscal drag then he could have argued the 45% reduction, but he didn't and that's why most people should be pissed off. But don't worry the CEOs can have their tax reduction, continue to pay minimum wage and still expect the taxpayer to subsidise those low salaries because even a full time worker has to claim benefits to make ends meet.
 
Bill said:
hi, past experiences mate . i was wary of Blair, but him being a Tory lite i thought he can't be that bad. they all but bankrupt the country . it's all well and good being a " do gooder " but it has to be paid for . that's why I am so disappointed with this government . they are going the same way.
i'll be ok, i'm comfortable , but my kids and their kids will pay for this for decades . not just in money but in services etc. i can help for now but i'll be dead by 2024, after that they are on their own . i have been called selfish in this thread , damn right i am. nobody has given me a thing , nor do I want owt.
i almost want a Labour victory to punish the Tories for their arrogance and complacency.
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Nice to hear the straight truth. I’d say I’m in a similar boat to you but have a different outlook in that I’d choose to protect as many as possible, utilising funds that the filthy rich are scurrying offshore. After all, we all work hard in our own way and I’d probably be nowhere without all those people I’ve worked with in the past, of all ages and talents.
 
hampshireblue said:
But you have swallowed the tory narrative. and it's not about bitterness for most people, it's about fairness. If he had chosen to raise the tax thresholds, thereby removing the nasty and regressive fiscal drag then he could have argued the 45% reduction, but he didn't and that's why most people should be pissed off. But don't worry the CEOs can have their tax reduction, continue to pay minimum wage and still expect the taxpayer to subsidise those low salaries because even a full time worker has to claim benefits to make ends meet.
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Come on mate, 20% to 19% is just the same as 45% to 40%.

Why can't you see that?

Seems you are a real life Wolfie Smith.

Politics of Envy.

:)
 
City Hobgoblin said:
They will spend the next 2 years encriching themselves and their buddies until the next election, then passing on the omnishambles to Labour
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I do believe that what we are seeing is very much aligned to the next election. Imagine Starmer getting in and saying we need to raise taxes to better manage the country. Even raising it back up by that 1% would set people off at that point.

This is the last throws of a government who are betting on a loss and doing everything within their power to break the system in order to leave the next government in a complete shambles. For that, I cannot forgive and I definitely won’t forget.
 
Some very good posts on here regardless of left right centre raving loon or dog walkers of world unite. You can build of picture of what we have on here and probably reflects the electorate .
Defines on what you have in life , but pleased to see there’s some of who are comfortable with their life and means as I am but it won’t stop us fighting for those who are very much less fortunate and trying to voice an opinion what is a fundamental wrong into a human right to live a comfortable life. If that’s makes me a leftie then good , I’m proud to be one .
I’ll keep footing the ladder and not pulling it up.
 
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