The Conservative Party

[Vic]

I don’t necessarily disagree regarding the latest movement in the polls - it could have been the immigration noise driving it - but I would still argue that the government’s polling will improve as inflation and interest rates fall.

If they’re still 10-15 points behind, then it obviously won’t matter, but it would be a bit of a stretch to say that record levels of inflation haven’t impacted the opinion polls over the past six or nine months.

Record level of inflation minus below inflation pay rises = record high prices and real income cut.

 

[johnnytapia]

It’s such a shock that the only 2 people who think a 20+ point labour lead in the polls is proof of the tories imminent election win are also the two currently hosting an anti Starmer circle-jerk in the labour thread because people are being mean to Corbyn again.

I think the Tories have a very good chance of winning and I’ve not posted in the Labour thread. Said it earlier, Blair, Brown et al looked ready for victory from ‘95 on. The public bought into them and their narrative. As did the MSM

At the moment the Tories are miles off in the polls. But, IMHO, that’s due to their own ineptitude rather than a “buy~in” by the electorate/ MSM for Starmer / Labour. Sunak, sadly, has the time to nick this. Ably abetted by the MSM and Labour’s inability to make the “sell”.

Genuinely wouldn’t surprise me one iota for Tories to win. Again.

FPTP helps the Tories, MSM helps, apathy helps, all could conspire to see a Tory victory.

 

[johnnytapia]

The wishful thinker in me wants to agree with you that it won't be close. However, I was listening to the News Agent podcast last week and they had a pollster on who pointed out that Starmer and Sunak poll much closer than Labour and Tory, and that leader polling has been a more reliable indicator of results in the past. I couldn't be arsed verifying that, but it's interesting food for thought. Hopefully Starmer continues to keep his powder dry whilst the Tories pursue non-issues in their culture war and the electorate give them the kicking they deserve.

News Agents is a great podcast

 

[bluethrunthru]

I don’t necessarily disagree regarding the latest movement in the polls - it could have been the immigration noise driving it - but I would still argue that the government’s polling will improve as inflation and interest rates fall.

If they’re still 10-15 points behind, then it obviously won’t matter, but it would be a bit of a stretch to say that record levels of inflation haven’t impacted the opinion polls over the past six or nine months.

Not entirely sure what you don't get - current overall inflation rate is up to 10.4% - food inflation is 17% + and we are going to face even higher prices at the end of the year when we have to invoke the agreed border checks for all imports (currently not happening ) - current average pay increases 5.7%. Things are not getting better and are likely to get worse which will continue to impact Govt polling rates - we face being poorer in real terms for a long time and that will be indefensible.

 

[west didsblue]

I think the Tories have a very good chance of winning and I’ve not posted in the Labour thread. Said it earlier, Blair, Brown et al looked ready for victory from ‘95 on. The public bought into them and their narrative. As did the MSM

At the moment the Tories are miles off in the polls. But, IMHO, that’s due to their own ineptitude rather than a “buy~in” by the electorate/ MSM for Starmer / Labour. Sunak, sadly, has the time to nick this. Ably abetted by the MSM and Labour’s inability to make the “sell”.

Genuinely wouldn’t surprise me one iota for Tories to win. Again.

FPTP helps the Tories, MSM helps, apathy helps, all could conspire to see a Tory victory.

Can’t see it.
I see it as analogous to post Black Wednesday in 1992 when the Tories lost the veneer of economic competence. Even though Major steadied the ship, it was gone and nothing was going to save them. Thirty years on Black Wednesday looks like a picnic compared to the economic carnage of Trussonomics and the disastrous implementation of Brexit, compounded by the cost of living crisis. That’s without mentioning the sleaze and pisstaking by Johnson during the pandemic. I’ll stick my neck out and say there’s no way back for the Tories for quite some time. If there’s any justice it will be for at least a generation but people have short memories and too many are influenced by the shite propagated by the likes of the Sun, Mail and Express.

 

[Mr Kobayashi]

Gullis - being sued by thick mince for making it look bad

All this will do is fill the streets with itinerant wandering homeless refugees

He says that whilst in a hotel at the tax payer's expense...

 

[bluethrunthru]

Given he has not said he is standing down at the next GE I assume Gullis actually thinks he will be re-elected

 

[johnnytapia]

Can’t see it.
I see it as analogous to post Black Wednesday in 1992 when the Tories lost the veneer of economic competence. Even though Major steadied the ship, it was gone and nothing was going to save them. Thirty years on Black Wednesday looks like a picnic compared to the economic carnage of Trussonomics and the disastrous implementation of Brexit, compounded by the cost of living crisis. That’s without mentioning the sleaze and pisstaking by Johnson during the pandemic. I’ll stick my neck out and say there’s no way back for the Tories for quite some time. If there’s any justice it will be for at least a generation but people have short memories and too many are influenced by the shite propagated by the likes of the Sun, Mail and Express.

Hope you’re right. Just something foreboding in my inner head tells me it might not pan out like that. Like I say, just a hunch, my instinct isn’t reflected in current polls but I just have a sick, nagging feeling these cunts might just do it. Backed by all the papers you list. And more.

 

[bluethrunthru]

Anyone think the American healthcare system is the way forward?

 

[TinFoilHat]

Anyone think the American healthcare system is the way forward?

Only all those Tory bastards (Including Wes Streeting) who have shares in the fuckers.