SkyBlueFlux
Well-Known Member
A lot of the Tory vote stayed at home from the looks of it. Do we think they'll do that in a GE?
I think this “Tories stayed home” narrative is becoming a bit of an apocryphal line that comes out at each by-election but do we have any actual evidence that this is the case?
How do we know that former Tory voters didn’t turn up this time and vote for somebody else?
It relies on the idea that the electorate is this fixed mass of people who always vote the same way. For all we know there could be more Labour voters that stayed home because they thought it was a foregone conclusion than Tory voters.
I don’t think the Tories will perform any better than this at a GE. There are plenty of non-Tory voters that never vote in local and by-elections.