The Conservative Party

[gordondaviesmoustache]

Stupid analysis - Reform Ltd are not their main problem - won just 5 seats on a vote of 4m.

Their first enemy they should consider are the Lib Dems who took loads of seats off them in so called safe seats - wiped out in the South West and on the IoW huge losses in the Home Counties like Surry and Sussex. If they put all the effort into those 5 seats and they retain what they hold thats 126 seats. That is not winning them any sort of election.

It’s not a straightforward as that though. The were plenty of seats they lost to Labour (for example) where the Reform votes cost them the seat - Truss’ being one. Not saying everyone who voted Reform would otherwise have voted Tory, but the majority would.

 

[metalblue]

The tweet from Byron Davies was a disgrace. You can’t justify these riots.

Should be sacked.

 

[The Future’s Blue!]

The tweet from Byron Davies was a disgrace. You can’t justify these riots.

Should be sacked.

Looks a wrong’en, could almost be 30p Lee’s dad. What’s he had to say?

 

[bluethrunthru]

Honest Bob - no irony - no acknowledgement of the roll HIS Govt played in all this and cynically exploiting trouble to try to look Churchillian in his leadership bid

 

[bluenova]

It’s not a straightforward as that though. The were plenty of seats they lost to Labour (for example) where the Reform votes cost them the seat - Truss’ being one. Not saying everyone who voted Reform would otherwise have voted Tory, but the majority would.

All the polling from the last election says different.

The Tories were only the 2nd choice for about a third of Reform voters. As many Reform voters would have gone Lab/LD/Green, and a good chunk wouldn't have voted at all. Without Reform, Labour would still have had a huge majority, and given how strong the Lab/LD/Green tactical squeeze was when needed, it's arguable that it would have had almost no effect at all.

Even the Tory 2019 to Reform 2024 vote can't be considered anything like a homogenous grouping that could be targeted. Many were voting Tory for the first time on the back of Brexit, and a greater percentage of Tory>Reform voters said they'd never vote Tory again, than any other switchers to Reform.

The post election polling and research also suggests that Reform don't have anywhere obvious that they can grow. All the talk of 'coming for Labour' doesn't stack up, and they'd struggle to put together any kind of offer that appealed to both the Tory and Reform votes.

They're certainly a part of the landscape, but the centre is still where an election will be won or lost.

 

[Mr Kobayashi]

Honest Bob - no irony - no acknowledgement of the roll HIS Govt played in all this and cynically exploiting trouble to try to look Churchillian in his leadership bid

The **** needs to be told you can't have gravitas when reading from a teleprompter.

It's like an AI version of a politician speaking.

 

[TinFoilHat]

Honest Bob - no irony - no acknowledgement of the roll HIS Govt played in all this and cynically exploiting trouble to try to look Churchillian in his leadership bid

I'm shocked...

 

[urban genie]

Jenrick on Sky, not sure he knows what allah akbar means, which unfortunately minimises a valid point he made.

Though mainlynhe has come across as more pro farage and parrotimg tge same bollocks

 

[TinFoilHat]

Jenrick on Sky, not sure he knows what allah akbar means, which unfortunately minimises a valid point he made.

Though mainlynhe has come across as more pro farage and parrotimg tge same bollocks

So much for lowering the temperature.

Slagging off the police I hope they decide to investigate his shady business dealings in retaliation.

 

[MillionMilesAway]

Jenrick on Sky, not sure he knows what allah akbar means, which unfortunately minimises a valid point he made.

Though mainlynhe has come across as more pro farage and parrotimg tge same bollocks

Just seen that. What a tool.