The Conservative Party

wow - Cleverley out - they really are going to a shoot out between dumb and dumber - biggest winner is Starmer
On the basis of this race, I now can't see any other outcome than a two-term Labour government, at the least. There will be a lurch to the right to woo Reform followed by another electoral defeat, but the other problem is that the number of MPs is so small that it will be difficult for someone who is closer to the centre to shine, as Badenoch or Jenrick will keep them on the periphery. Three terms isn't unimaginable.
 
On the basis of this race, I now can't see any other outcome than a two-term Labour government, at the least. There will be a lurch to the right to woo Reform followed by another electoral defeat, but the other problem is that the number of MPs is so small that it will be difficult for someone who is closer to the centre to shine, as Badenoch or Jenrick will keep them on the periphery. Three terms isn't unimaginable.
That has to be balanced with social media bashing whichever government is in charge. Approval ratings of any government will always likely to be largely negative these days.

It also depends on whether Labour can get people feeling more positive again.


That being said, the Tories have given Labour the best opportunity for a multi-term government now in having to choose from these two.
 
As I wrote above, I think there will be another leadership election, but it will probably come after the next election defeat.
How long does a member of the Tory party have to be an MP before being able to stand as leader?

The right honourable member for Clacton might fancy moving parties.
 

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