The Conservative Party

Chippy_boy said:
Whilst I can see the attractiveness of splurging on infrastructure spending when rates are low and borrowing is cheap, where would we be now, had we done that and THEN found there was a couple of hundred billion more needed to pay for COVID? Hard to imagine how we would not be in a worse place economically.
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Whereas a tanking pound with inflation at 10% is ideal. Luckily for us, gas and oil aren’t priced in dollars or that would make inflation much worse and mean the package announced on heating bills will cost even more. You’ve got a chancellor trying to stoke demand and the BOE trying to slow it down. How can that possibly lead to growth? I suppose the only hope is that Jonny Foreigner will come in their droves, as it’ll be so cheap for them. The yanks can buy up any remaining industry and businesses we’ve got left, and anyone owning shares will likely be ok (FTSE 100 anyway) as their earnings are usually priced in dollars.
We are also giving overseas visitors their VAT back on anything they buy, which is nice.
 
As ever with these clowns its just about believing - no need for evidence and proof nobody needs to see the receipts

 
The Light Was Yellow Sir said:
Whereas a tanking pound with inflation at 10% is ideal. Luckily for us, gas and oil aren’t priced in dollars or that would make inflation much worse and mean the package announced on heating bills will cost even more. You’ve got a chancellor trying to stoke demand and the BOE trying to slow it down. How can that possibly lead to growth? I suppose the only hope is that Jonny Foreigner will come in their droves, as it’ll be so cheap for them. The yanks can buy up any remaining industry and businesses we’ve got left, and anyone owning shares will likely be ok (FTSE 100 anyway) as their earnings are usually priced in dollars.
We are also giving overseas visitors their VAT back on anything they buy, which is nice.
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You raise a good point about the BoE. Someone needs to reign them in, because inflation is NOT the problem we should be looking to fix. It will fix itself naturally over the next 12 months or so as higher prices stabilize. Taking more money out of people's pockets with interest rate rises is idiotic right now.
 
Has kwarteng got the OBR reports on his desk?
If he’s read them and refused to publish, what does that tell you?
Does he think that the markets will find them more horrifying than what they already know?
 
Chippy_boy said:
You raise a good point about the BoE. Someone needs to reign them in, because inflation is NOT the problem we should be looking to fix. It will fix itself naturally over the next 12 months or so as higher prices stabilize. Taking more money out of people's pockets with interest rate rises is idiotic right now.
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Thing is mate, you’re obviously not stupid, but if fuel and import costs are rising week on week due to nothing more than the exchange rate, how does inflation stabilise on its own?
 
Chippy_boy said:
Fuck me, the budget is less than 1 working day old. Now I can understand lefties not wanted to even consider that these policies might actually work, but even so.

Let's revisit this is a year or so and see how things are doing. If the economy is "destroyed" by then, well fair enough. But after less than 1 day? Give over.
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What makes you think that this is going to work?

Do you know more than the experts and lets face it the market that has tanked over this un costed budget?
 
Chippy_boy said:
No, and I said as much if you bothered to read my post. I suppose this is the Tories fault as well, and nothing to do with the dollar getting stronger:

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The pound was down against the Turkish Lira at one point and that is a basket case.

I’ve no idea why seemingly rational people publicly soil themselves to justify the political party they support.

Very odd.
 
BobKowalski said:
The pound was down against the Turkish Lira at one point and that is a basket case.

I’ve no idea why seemingly rational people publicly soil themselves to justify the political party they support.

Very odd.
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It was down against the fucking Ruble!
 
bluethrunthru said:
As ever with these clowns its just about believing - no need for evidence and proof nobody needs to see the receipts

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She’s the one who got shredded by Paxman a few years ago. Beaten by Paxman was an occupational hazard, I suppose. Beaten by Burley is another level of humiliation altogether. And it’s 10 years on…..
 
Chippy_boy said:
Not a soul even prepared to contemplate (a) that the economic crisis at the moment is not all the Tories fault (when patently it isn't) and (b) that the new approach Truss is taking might actually work.
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A - there is a crisis, the response is totally wrong. Its based on failed economic theory that is only ever used to justify tax cuts for rich people.

B - It has failed already, the fall in the pound will make our economic situation worse, even if you assume tax cuts will stimulate growth (evidence suggests they don't) it wont even make these losses back. Its an unmitigated disaster.
 
The Light Was Yellow Sir said:
Thing is mate, you’re obviously not stupid, but if fuel and import costs are rising week on week due to nothing more than the exchange rate, how does inflation stabilise on its own?
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I don't want to sound patronising, so forgive me if you get all of this, but...

Inflation is a historical measure. It looks at the price of a basket of things 12 months ago and compares the price of those things today. And right now we see that this basket is about 10% higher, due in very large part to the increased cost of energy (10x gas wholesale gas price for example). Of course the energy costs have a direct cost in the basket of goods itself, but also an indirect cost increase on other products due to higher transportation costs etc.

However, there is no evidence that prices will just spiral upwards at this rate forever. For example, petrol prices have actually come down. If prices in 12 months time remain as they are today, then inflation is back to zero.

£1 goods ==> £1.10 = 10% inflation
£1.10 = £1.10 = 0% inflation, even though the prices are higher than they were at £1.

Of course it will not drop to zero that dramatically, in most part because the indirect effect of the increased energy costs, takes time to work its way through. But it will come down over the next 12 or 24 months to low single figures. In fact there's a real danger than inflation could go negative in a couple of years, which brings in a raft of problems of its own.
 
Gaudion M said:
A - there is a crisis, the response is totally wrong. Its based on failed economic theory that is only ever used to justify tax cuts for rich people.

B - It has failed already, the fall in the pound will make our economic situation worse, even if you assume tax cuts will stimulate growth (evidence suggests they don't) it wont even make these losses back. Its an unmitigated disaster.
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We'll see.
 
Chippy_boy said:
Perhaps she (and you) should have a read of this:

capx.co

The man behind the Hong Kong miracle

No modern country has come as close to Adam Smith’s ideal as Hong Kong, thanks to John Cowperthwaite
capx.co capx.co
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What you don't seem to understand is that modern capitalism is not that espoused by Adam Smith and his invisible hand.
Modern capitalism is monopoly capitalism where increasingly large corporations dominate the market and set the rules of the game by influencing government policy.
It's also increasingly a rentier rather than a productive form of capitalism so a completely different situation to that which HK found itself in many years ago.
 
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