the economy.

[roaminblue]

Big Business has got its balls back then. Wish they would pay some fucking tax

Our Govt is probably giving them grants to do it too.


And so the cycle continues.....Browns statements of eradicating boom and bust were foolish as its going to happen again soon is it not pal.

I don't think anyone in these sectors were really tax avoiding, or do you mean the customers, the borrowers?

No grants involved, quite the opposite. Pretty soon the banking sector will be the whipping boy again because they are unable to lend to small to medium sized businesses and personal loans will contract. The credit risk isn't with huge loan tranches for investment grade corporates, its on the SME front; of course the SME front gets the populace frothing.

Its should be a welcome change, because for most the recent lack of activity has been as interesting as the cavity between Katie Hopkins ears, and lack of interest general results in inefficiency.

But yes, it probably is going to happen again. I don't know how soon. Misselling, well I don't think we will see that again, not on this scale. Anything that does come up I think will be legacy. The regulators are all over it, they've just put CoCos on hold for 12 months.

The banking sector is slightly more structurally sound, the liquid funding ratio and the risk weighting makes it more robust.

The real risk comes from diversification. Many of the risk processes used to mitigate risk exposure may have the opposite effect. They diversify, but everyone diversifies in the same way which may actually increase systematic risk.

In terms of the complexity, we are close to 2005 iin terms of the derivative. But really, the financial crisis was a perfect storm. But we need to look out for the pitfalls, because we still are (or at least will be) massively overleveraged once again.

 

[Rascal]

Big Business has got its balls back then. Wish they would pay some fucking tax

Our Govt is probably giving them grants to do it too.


And so the cycle continues.....Browns statements of eradicating boom and bust were foolish as its going to happen again soon is it not pal.

I don't think anyone in these sectors were really tax avoiding, or do you mean the customers, the borrowers?

No grants involved, quite the opposite. Pretty soon the banking sector will be the whipping boy again because they are unable to lend to small to medium sized businesses and personal loans will contract. The credit risk isn't with huge loan tranches for investment grade corporates, its on the SME front; of course the SME front gets the populace frothing.

Its should be a welcome change, because for most the recent lack of activity has been as interesting as the cavity between Katie Hopkins ears, and lack of interest general results in inefficiency.

But yes, it probably is going to happen again. I don't know how soon. Misselling, well I don't think we will see that again, not on this scale. Anything that does come up I think will be legacy. The regulators are all over it, they've just put CoCos on hold for 12 months.

The banking sector is slightly more structurally sound, the liquid funding ratio and the risk weighting makes it more robust.

The real risk comes from diversification. Many of the risk processes used to mitigate risk exposure may have the opposite effect. They diversify, but everyone diversifies in the same way which may actually increase systematic risk.

In terms of the complexity, we are close to 2005 iin terms of the derivative. But really, the financial crisis was a perfect storm. But we need to look out for the pitfalls, because we still are (or at least will be) massively overleveraged once again.

You go way above my knowledge at times but it gives me stuff to read about and learn about pal, so thanks.


Can you answer me this though. Why would any Govt want to make Tax Cuts in the face of the deficit we have whilst making cuts to basic services.

Why is raising the tax threshold seen as so important as the majority of saving will be made by those who earn more than the threshold?


I struggle to get the economy theory behind what is happening. It does not make sense.

 

[Bill]

its kicked on since i started this thread, we have got busier and busier. we are a year on and its been great, how long it lasts nobody knows, might get even better. i do know one thing, if there is a change of government in may it will all be undone in a matter of months.

i'll never take this for granted.

 

[dan_bo]

Yeah ok were busy again now.

 

[roaminblue]

You go way above my knowledge at times but it gives me stuff to read about and learn about pal, so thanks.


Can you answer me this though. Why would any Govt want to make Tax Cuts in the face of the deficit we have whilst making cuts to basic services.

Why is raising the tax threshold seen as so important as the majority of saving will be made by those who earn more than the threshold?


I struggle to get the economy theory behind what is happening. It does not make sense.

Ok its been a while, but let me see what I can remember

So, austerity measures are quite often ideologically driven. However the general principal is that economic expansion comes from reduced government spending. There's a theory called Expansionary contraction; which basically states that reduction in government spend changes future expectations about government spend and as a result stimulate private expansion and consequently economic expansion.

The premise is that government spend is an artificial stimulus so reduction in it will allow the private sector to compete for the extra capacity.

With this in mind, a tax cut will do the same. IN that when you lower the rate of tax, corporations and individuals real level of income will increase, which may in turn see them make investments, spend more money, generally improve the psychology within the economy.

The cutting of front line services does two things 1) it reduces spending 2) it creates room for the private sector.

However, it may also be ideologically driven. As you can see by floating the royal mail (etc) the tories are probably a little bit more inclined to a smaller state.

 

[Rascal]

its kicked on since i started this thread, we have got busier and busier. we are a year on and its been great, how long it lasts nobody knows, might get even better. i do know one thing, if there is a change of government in may it will all be undone in a matter of months.

i'll never take this for granted.

Looking at the Economy from your own perspective is of course your right pal.


But taking into account the effects of the economy on many of potential potential customers of yours is mine.


If the economy as it is doing is rewarding the few SMEs like yours as it is they will never reach their full potential as the poverty of your potential customers is a barrier to your growth.

Now you maybe happy with your lot at the moment, but in a fairer more equal society you could grow your business muh more.

 

[metalblue]

To resurrect this thread, the IMF today tells Europe to copy Osborne's austerity drive. Downgrading forecasts for Germany and France they said the UK was on course to race ahead of other advanced economies although risks remained.

Hiya mate,

in your opinion how much of this is really down to austerity and how much is the creeping confidence in the markets in general?

A pretty benign rates market has meant that corporations have managed to lock-in fixed rate facilities for the foreseable; the way banks are set up currently means they are too heavily capitalised which has driven the price of these facilities down. some credit facilities have offered about as much risk as current accounts at the moment with banks tripping overthemselves to lend.

The other side of this is, of course, that we are probably stuck in a boom and bust cycle in the credit markets.

Leverage is growing, ABS' are back, CDO's are back (no cdo squared yet though ;-) ) you've got companies like the big american bulge brackets who are knocking european banks out of their positions in syndicated loans and taking massive holds; only to be able to flip it straight away and get the lot of their balance sheet in a matter of 48 hours. The insurance funds can't get enough, the pension funds can't get enough, the appetite for credit is well and truly back.

In commodities, where producers tend to be more asset rich/cash poor the appetite for credit has never really diminished, certainly banks became more reluctant to lend in the immediate aftermath particularly as CDS rates went stratospheric. We have little difficulty in securing funding these days although typically we will want to syndicate the loan, the rationale for this will need to be discussed over a beer. Additionally you can have asset rich nations impose tax regimes on producers which sometimes necessitates off balance sheet accounting to minimise liabilities, it's not my area but there seems to be increasing demand for the structure products that can support that.

There is only upside risk to rates, we're all pricing in 2015 as a 50-75bps increase. Against this it is only natural to want to lock down borrowing costs. The world still has plenty of cash and that cash needs to work, funds are naturally cash rich however being fully invested to offer acceptable returns over your AUM isn't easy especially for diversified funds so I can see where the attraction is in taking on credit risk when compared to the money markets. I think we are all a little wiser about packaged debt and how to grade it, or at least take the stance that if I don't understand it I don't want it.

 

[metalblue]

To resurrect this thread, the IMF today tells Europe to copy Osborne's austerity drive. Downgrading forecasts for Germany and France they said the UK was on course to race ahead of other advanced economies although risks remained.

The same IMF who have been proved so wrong, missed the crash etc etc etc etc. And yes I have used the IMF to back up points, but they become more discredited by the week.


The worst austerity is yet to come. Another 800,000 public servants will lose there jobs, Council budgets are being cut to the bone especially in big cities like Manchester.

The Tories want to cut more and more from the Welfare bill, but cut taxes at the same time. I struggle to understand where this logic has come from. If the Economy is booming as the IMF say, then raise taxes on wealth as thats the quickest way to eradicate the deficit surely.


We live in a country that whether you agree or not has social responsibilties to all its citizens. Those citizens of course have responsibilities back. But if you continue to hammer one section of society at the expense of others then a time will come when the streets will run with blood. Then as a result the feral underclass will be hit harder again and again.


I fucking hate that Blair allowed the circumstances for this vicious Tory led govt. to do what its doing. IDS is the singular most heartless **** on the planet and has wasted half a billion pounds on his universal credit that supplies just 3,000 people with welfare. Thats enough money to pay for 28,000 nurses.



The world is a sadder place because of the rise of neo-liberalist thought and its going to get worse, much worse and what really saddens me is we dont have a Labour party to fight against the mental cunts. As long as big business is OK and getting £100billion welfare rom the UK every year the Champagne keeps flowing..... Amazon got more in Govt grants last year than it paid Tax fffs...... think about about that one thing even if you dismiss the rest of my post as a rant....

I rarely think of your posts as rants Russ, more a counter balance. They often provoke thought.

Confidence in the UK is high from an investment perspecitive, it has a plan, and it's working. That's the big picture and the one that creates external investment and employment. Chasing the headlines figures to make that happen means politicians can neglect certain parts of society, a form of collateral damage if you like. Are the Tories more prone to look at the state rather than the individual? Very probably.

We do have an obligation to all of society and I don't think any of our political parties would disagree with that. I wasn't best pleased to read tht the Tories plan to freeze welfare payments for two years...the effect of inflation on those on low incomes is far greater than to those on middle to high incomes. The message I assume they are trying to promote is work pays, they want people to need to work, the system demands people, who can, contribute however this isn't the way to go about it.

 

[Gabriel]

May have misheard, but was the Conservative promise of tax cuts not something envisaged for the very end of the next parliament, so say, assuming a coalition and fixed-term parliament again, spring 2020?

 

[sniff]

To resurrect this thread, the IMF today tells Europe to copy Osborne's austerity drive. Downgrading forecasts for Germany and France they said the UK was on course to race ahead of other advanced economies although risks remained.

The same IMF who have been proved so wrong, missed the crash etc etc etc etc. And yes I have used the IMF to back up points, but they become more discredited by the week.


The worst austerity is yet to come. Another 800,000 public servants will lose there jobs, Council budgets are being cut to the bone especially in big cities like Manchester.

The Tories want to cut more and more from the Welfare bill, but cut taxes at the same time. I struggle to understand where this logic has come from. If the Economy is booming as the IMF say, then raise taxes on wealth as thats the quickest way to eradicate the deficit surely.


We live in a country that whether you agree or not has social responsibilties to all its citizens. Those citizens of course have responsibilities back. But if you continue to hammer one section of society at the expense of others then a time will come when the streets will run with blood. Then as a result the feral underclass will be hit harder again and again.


I fucking hate that Blair allowed the circumstances for this vicious Tory led govt. to do what its doing. IDS is the singular most heartless c**t on the planet and has wasted half a billion pounds on his universal credit that supplies just 3,000 people with welfare. Thats enough money to pay for 28,000 nurses.



The world is a sadder place because of the rise of neo-liberalist thought and its going to get worse, much worse and what really saddens me is we dont have a Labour party to fight against the mental c**ts. As long as big business is OK and getting £100billion welfare rom the UK every year the Champagne keeps flowing..... Amazon got more in Govt grants last year than it paid Tax fffs...... think about about that one thing even if you dismiss the rest of my post as a rant....

I rarely think of your posts as rants Russ, more a counter balance. They often provoke thought.

Confidence in the UK is high from an investment perspecitive, it has a plan, and it's working. That's the big picture and the one that creates external investment and employment. Chasing the headlines figures to make that happen means politicians can neglect certain parts of society, a form of collateral damage if you like. Are the Tories more prone to look at the state rather than the individual? Very probably.

We do have an obligation to all of society and I don't think any of our political parties would disagree with that. I wasn't best pleased to read tht the Tories plan to freeze welfare payments for two years...the effect of inflation on those on low incomes is far greater than to those on middle to high incomes. The message I assume they are trying to promote is work pays, they want people to need to work, the system demands people, who can, contribute however this isn't the way to go about it.

The whole party line on this from the conservatives almost harks back to victorian Britain in some ways. Either way i fear long term for this country if they stay in control for much longer.

A model theory on the economy is one thing, the real world implications are another. The walfare system in this country is the biggest target they seem obliged to attack, whilst making great headline speeches that single out the horrible unemployed benefits scum.. The first trick they pulled and got away with was toconvince the working class they are they horrible grubby little problem that is destroying society. They couldnt be further from the truth. Unemployment benefit is the lowest bill by far the goverment will face during their term in office. it was calulated that the unemployed claimed just 3% of the current spend.
That make's you ask the question why so much is being spent, once you get past the next smallest bill (sickness benefits) then the rest must be going somewhere equaly as terrible ?

The truth is, the largets spend by far is on the elderly whos pathetic goverment pension takes the lions share, Then followed by working families who claim 26% of the welfare bill. when you add that 92% of housing benefit claims are made by employed people, why should that be happening ?

If all of thats confusing compared to the current party opinion and policy, it gets even more bizzare when you look into who they have taken income away from, they are going to freeze benefits for 2 years. They have already knocked half a billion of the sickness benefits bill, not because jesus or whoever came along and cured them, just because they could. Then they hit 72% of people with a genius bedroom tax to reduce the walfare bill further. MP's are allowed a full house on the tax payers expense in the cheap area of london, i dont think they give a toss if they live in it or not, they also pay the gas, electric and the council tax on it ? so they get a free house with no bills. the poor couple who have had to stop work due to ill health now have to find and extra £30 a week ? Great nation England.

The truth is, the welfare state they attack with such venom is a symptom not the problem. Since this goverment they have already lowered the standard of living, taking 5 million familes off tax credit.. why do working people need to be given tax credits ? is that not a massive issue that wages are not enough.. ? the finacial plan to reduce the goverment service and open them to the private sector is a great idea in theory, but who steps in to help the finacialy unviable ? social care run to profit margins and targets ? id hate to burst anyone's austerity ideas, but thats never going to work. You will never reduce the social walfae bill until you invest in social welfare.. it really is that simple, it cant be measured on a profit margin but the benfits are endless. A better workforce, more people in work, general levels of education rise.. wellbeing etc.. none of that will happen by disgarding an entire generation.. and that is what is happening... Get people into work and show thats the way forward, he must find it hard to keep a straight face sometimes. Whilst he says that in one meeting, he then jogs off to the trade agreement. shhhh thats secret and we, the people who will live under the far reaching effects of the deal are not allowed in or to even know whats being proposed ? whys that ? because it also allows companies to sue a goverment for lost profits in event of a minimum wage rise.. Thats not all in it together no matter how you spin it


Lets train the whole country to have the ethos of wall street, and the conservative goverment.. shit on everyone to make yourself better off, its the British way. After all when you fuck up and cost the country trillion's we can always blame the least educated and poorest members of society, even make them pay for it. Its almost bullying on a national scale