The Labour Government

[threespires]

Has any detailed planning / analysis been conducted on which parts of the country and indeed individual councils are most likely to see private school pupils moving to the state sector, and whether the state sector in those particular areas could absorb this increase in numbers?

Talking about spare capacity in the state sector as a whole is a non-argument if the movement is likely to be concentrated in particular regions.

Not being funny but if the incoming government had decided to appoint as Secretary of State for Education a macaque monkey trained to throw it's faeces at a whiteboard and then populated the DfE with ring-tailed lemurs skilled in plunging cocktail sticks into pieces of paper, as the central part of the policy and planning process, then it would still have taken the concept of planning in education more seriously than the previous government had done. I say this a someone who has spent the last 8 years trying to decipher the incoherent tosh emanating from the DfE on a variety of different subjects from academisation, to covid protocols, to T-Levels etc etc.

This policy was a smart one politically in that, relatively speaking, it is not that complicated to plan and execute and seems quite radical whilst also being pretty low risk.The private education lobbying and special interest groups have been well organised and well supported, they have got their narrative out there extensively often under the guise of 'research' but none of this has moved the dial in terms of sympathy for the sector. The right need to move on and find other battles to fight because this one is pointless. In fact it's worse than pointless because if Labour have any sense, when the bottom fails to fall out of the world as this policy is executed, they will be able to use the level of bleating and scare mongering as a stick to continue to beat the right with.

 

[urban genie]

Is that targeted at an individual? As I don’t think there’s many people that wouldn’t agree that anyone with failed asylum should
be either staying or working here illegally.

This is the problem on the whole, someone here who came on, say a student visa who doesn't then leave is not an asylum seeker or refugee (unless they claim it after the fact) yet all are lumped in the same in the immigration arguement.

I am guessing this crackdown is on such whose visa have ran out and have not gone home, having worked in the hospitality trade there is still plenty of places paying cash in hand to these people on overstays.

deporting illegal workers on overstayed visas and stopping the boats/deporting people claiming asylum are different things but talked about in the same breath, confusing the issue

 

[gordondaviesmoustache]

It won't be the Winchesters, Eton 'n 'Arrows that go to the wall, it'll be the smaller local independents that will disappear so there may well be an exodus that the state system cannot accommodate, and we'll be back to the 'Golden Age of the 50s where there were hordes in every class.

I stridently predict only a small handful of private schools will close.

 

[Brewster's millions]

Not being funny but if the incoming government had decided to appoint as Secretary of State for Education a macaque monkey trained to throw it's faeces at a whiteboard and then populated the DfE with ring-tailed lemurs skilled in plunging cocktail sticks into pieces of paper, as the central part of the policy and planning process, then it would still have taken the concept of planning in education more seriously than the previous government had done. I say this a someone who has spent the last 8 years trying to decipher the incoherent tosh emanating from the DfE on a variety of different subjects from academisation, to covid protocols, to T-Levels etc etc.

This policy was a smart one politically in that, relatively speaking, it is not that complicated to plan and execute and seems quite radical whilst also being pretty low risk.The private education lobbying and special interest groups have been well organised and well supported, they have got their narrative out there extensively often under the guise of 'research' but none of this has moved the dial in terms of sympathy for the sector. The right need to move on and find other battles to fight because this one is pointless. In fact it's worse than pointless because if Labour have any sense, when the bottom fails to fall out of the world as this policy is executed, they will be able to use the level of bleating and scare mongering as a stick to continue to beat the right with.

When the attrition rate from private to public proves highly uneven across the country, and particular councils are put under real pressure to find additional places in schools that are already oversubscribed, the policy will simply appear as a completely unnecessary own goal.

Completely unnecessary in the sense that the policy has negligible fiscal benefits (if any), and it will simply risk increases in class sizes and in fact a deterioration in the quality of education provided in the impacted state schools.

Given your grievances about the numerous education policy changes of recent years and the uncertainty created around the sector, would you not have preferred a period of calm and careful planning, without the distraction created by an ideologically driven policy? In particular a policy which is likely to offer little to nothing from a fiscal perspective?

Starmer has made a big thing about putting the country ahead of party politics but I’m afraid he’s fallen at the first hurdle here.

 

[mosssideblue]

When the attrition rate from private to public proves highly uneven across the country, and particular councils are put under real pressure to find additional places in schools that are already oversubscribed, the policy will simply appear as a completely unnecessary own goal.

Completely unnecessary in the sense that the policy has negligible fiscal benefits (if any), and it will simply risk increases in class sizes and in fact a deterioration in the quality of education provided in the impacted state schools.

Given your grievances about the numerous education policy changes of recent years and the uncertainty created around the sector, would you not have preferred a period of calm and careful planning, without the distraction created by an ideologically driven policy? In particular a policy which is likely to offer little to nothing from a fiscal perspective?

Starmer has made a big thing about putting the country ahead of party politics but I’m afraid he’s fallen at the first hurdle here.

You might also be wrong in your assumption

 

[Brewster's millions]

You might also be wrong in your assumption

I think the one thing that we can be sure of is that the movement of pupils out of the private sector will not prove uniform across the country, and so talk of spare capacity across the state sector as a whole is redundant.

 

[PPT]

thanks for your kind words

Love that you call me a "faux communist" I am probably more influenced by Kropotkin than Marks, more Lenin than Trotsky, i am not a Stalinist, Gramsci intrigues me, not read much though.

What you have to remember is there are differences as the left always argues over small details.

Marxism believes in the public ownership of the means of production, whilst Communism believes in the collective ownership of the means of production. Can you see the difference?

Lenin though was quite comfortable with small business as they should remain outside of state control.

Trotsky s ideas were of perpertual revolution until the world was socialist.

You my friend are obviously a Capitalist, which makes yo a supporter of the most murderous ideology than mankind has ever seen.

Bless you x

Ideological bollocks.
Dream on comrade. Or grow up.

 

[bluenova]

I think the one thing that we can be sure of is that the movement of pupils out of the private sector will not prove uniform across the country, and so talk of spare capacity across the state sector as a whole is redundant.

I answered your question about this last night. You asked about problems across the country and even within "individual councils", and I pointed out that nearly every council in the country could absorb an almost total collapse of the private sector. The only outlier was Surrey, and the state there could still absorb around a third of the private sector - something that I'll bet anything you like won't happen.

There is no way that the drops will be anything like the levels that would make serious dents in the state sector - most predictions are in the low single figures.

 

[Brewster's millions]

I answered your question about this last night. You asked about problems across the country and even within "individual councils", and I pointed out that nearly every council in the country could absorb an almost total collapse of the private sector. The only outlier was Surrey, and the state there could still absorb around a third of the private sector - something that I'll bet anything you like won't happen.

There is no way that the drops will be anything like the levels that would make serious dents in the state sector - most predictions are in the low single figures.

No serious analysis has occurred, as you well know.

 

[gordondaviesmoustache]

I think the one thing that we can be sure of is that the movement of pupils out of the private sector will not prove uniform across the country, and so talk of spare capacity across the state sector as a whole is redundant.

With a combination of cost absorption by the schools, and parents having to find an average of a couple of grand a year extra, the movement you refer to will be nugatory.

The overwhelming majority of those who can afford private education in the first place can stand an extra 10-20% on way or the other.