The Labour Government

[BobKowalski]

There are greater conversations to be had on the 'economy' and sustainability because can the world and its natural ecosystem even sustain further growth and certainly population growth?

Every single scientific report and statistic available on issues such as resource availability, climate change and biodiversity suggests not. And meanwhile we're moaning that we haven't built the million houses needed to sustain a growing population that today isn't even growing the economy anyway. It's completely barmy.

Your idea that you aren't arsed about a population increase of the order of tens of millions ignores the fact that this is a death sentence for this ecosystem. And then there are people like Miliband who think that we can build a few wind turbines and it will all be fine...

The world population is expected to peak at the end of this century and then decline. Fertility rates are below replacement levels almost everywhere save Africa and their number is also falling. Worldwide replacement rate is 2.1 births per woman. Current rate is 2.3.

When the population starts to decline I guess we can stop worrying about immigration and sustainability.

 

[inbetween]

Well I guess we have to start somewhere. I assume you are actively persuading family members not to have more kids if that is your true belief regarding populaton growth?

I suppose I've done my bit already. I only have one child at the moment and that means I'm otherwise actively contributing to population decline. Immigration increases consumption and at least locally accelerates the destruction of the natural environment. It's just an inconvenient fact although I think it's too late to do anything about it anyway so we may as well just enjoy ourselves until our time is up.

It's not about whataboutery either, it's more about having an honest conversation and the simple fact that the natural world around us is falling apart and is there really a strong argument to make it infinitely worse? If at least the economy and living standards were jumping forwards then I'd understand but this isn't even the case.

 

[inbetween]

The world population is expected to peak at the end of this century and then decline. Fertility rates are below replacement levels almost everywhere save Africa and their number is also falling. Worldwide replacement rate is 2.1 births per woman. Current rate is 2.3.

When the population starts to decline I guess we can stop worrying about immigration and sustainability.

That peak will be hit by around 2080 and will there be anything else left alive by that point? The majority of the UK will likely be concreted over or it'll just be lifeless industrialised farmland. Insects have declined already by 50% in 40 years so they'll be long gone.

I know we probably won't be alive so we can probably should just drink it in and remain ignorant. In the meantime enjoy that 1% annual growth in the economy I guess anyway....

 

[Brewster's millions]

If posters are on "the right", I would expect them to be in the Reform and Tory threads expousing how wonderful their respective parties and policies are are. As it is, it's easier for you, them, to criticise whilst rarely offering anything remotely constructive.

I don’t think I’ll ever tire of lefties complaining about this. Brilliant.

Anyway, inflation is up again in July - pretty much across the board- in what can only be described as a pretty calamitous set of figures for this government. Particularly with the MPC (belatedly) now drawing an explicit link to the NIC rise which - surprise surprise- is actually proving counterproductive.

Still, further and faster. Reeves must surely be publishing that line by line breakdown she promised of the £22bn black hole any day now, given that the foundations have been fixed.

 

[ganganvince]

If posters are on "the right", I would expect them to be in the Reform and Tory threads expousing how wonderful their respective parties and policies are are. As it is, it's easier for you, them, to criticise whilst rarely offering anything remotely constructive.

History would disagree with you on that, the Conservative Government and Boris Johnson threads were the go to place for lefties. This far out from an election opposition parties just watch as Government fucks up.

 

[BobKowalski]

Yeah but @BobKowalski says business gets what business wants, which they don't unless you let them.

Yes, although the way it is framed it’s as if I’m personally responsible for how our economic model works. I would like to take the credit, but I’m just pointing out the reality. Ditto with demographics.

On the other hand, and ignoring the current overhyping of AI, the point of AI is to replace you and everyone else on this thread currently in employment. This appeals to investors and companies who see a way of cutting the biggest cost of business which is people, and those on the right who see a future with no, or minimal, immigration.

Yet we are also a consumer driven economy and people need money to be able to consume and the more people with money you have consuming things the better, so what happens when people have less money or fewer people with less money?

Whither the economy then? Do we change the parameters of what is a ‘good’ economy? Do we swell the growing number of economically inactive which is around 40% of the workforce in the US and over 20% in the UK?

Interesting times ahead.

 

[BobKowalski]

That peak will be hit by around 2080 and will there be anything else left alive by that point? The majority of the UK will likely be concreted over or it'll just be lifeless industrialised farmland. Insects have declined already by 50% in 40 years so they'll be long gone.

I know we probably won't be alive so we can probably should just drink it in and remain ignorant. In the meantime enjoy that 1% annual growth in the economy I guess anyway....

The UK won’t be concreted over. Less than 10% of the UK’s habitual land is developed. Let’s try and keep some sense of proportion.

 

[hampshireblue]

I don’t think I’ll ever tire of lefties complaining about this. Brilliant.

Anyway, inflation is up again in July - pretty much across the board- in what can only be described as a pretty calamitous set of figures for this government. Particularly with the MPC (belatedly) now drawing an explicit link to the NIC rise which - surprise surprise- is actually proving counterproductive.

Still, further and faster. Reeves must surely be publishing that line by line breakdown she promised of the £22bn black hole any day now, given that the foundations have been fixed.

I was tempted to just write F*ck off you right wing condescending c*nt-but I won't.

Your reply, however, just confirms what I wrote. How is it a pretty calamitous set of figures when the BoE has already projected that it would hit a peak in September of around 4% ( good for pensioners as that's the month the triple lock is based on). It was 0.1% higher than predicted. Airfares, coffee and orange juice were amongst the biggest contributors to the "calamitous" rise. Bloody foreigners increasing prices! You'll have to have one less latte a day.

From a middle of the road non-leftie.

 

[hilts]

Yes, although the way it is framed it’s as if I’m personally responsible for how our economic model works. I would like to take the credit, but I’m just pointing out the reality. Ditto with demographics.

On the other hand, and ignoring the current overhyping of AI, the point of AI is to replace you and everyone else on this thread currently in employment. This appeals to investors and companies who see a way of cutting the biggest cost of business which is people, and those on the right who see a future with no, or minimal, immigration.

Yet we are also a consumer driven economy and people need money to be able to consume and the more people with money you have consuming things the better, so what happens when people have less money or fewer people with less money?

Whither the economy then? Do we change the parameters of what is a ‘good’ economy? Do we swell the growing number of economically inactive which is around 40% of the workforce in the US and over 20% in the UK?

Interesting times ahead.

These are tte questions people would be discussing if they didn't accept growth forever and/or business gets what business wants.

 

[Hgblue2]

I don’t think I’ll ever tire of lefties complaining about this. Brilliant.

Anyway, inflation is up again in July - pretty much across the board- in what can only be described as a pretty calamitous set of figures for this government. Particularly with the MPC (belatedly) now drawing an explicit link to the NIC rise which - surprise surprise- is actually proving counterproductive.

Still, further and faster. Reeves must surely be publishing that line by line breakdown she promised of the £22bn black hole any day now, given that the foundations have been fixed.

Who'd have thought that increasing taxes on businesses would lead to job losses and price increases eh? I know, shocking.

Inflation up, so the cost of living crisis for working people gets worse, so they have less disposable income, which means they spend less, which reduces economic growth, which reduces government income.

Unemployment up, so the tax take falls, which also leaves the government with less money, so more borrowing required. Or better still, more tax rises further tanking the economy.

People who are buying government debt get this which explains why 30 year gilt yields are through the roof, meaning the cost of financing our growing debt gets ever more restrictive for government finances.

This is all basic stuff that even I can understand, yet the chancellor already has us in a debt doom loop, I'm looking for signs that she knows what she's doing and I'm coming up with nothing.

Having said that, the main thing of concern to our lefty brethren is that nasty right wing people are posting their criticism of the Labour government in a thread entitled The Labour Government, after them having spent a decade on here whinging about everything, in every thread, all day every day, ad nauseum. Oh the irony.

 

[BobKowalski]

These are tte questions people would be discussing if they didn't accept growth forever and/or business gets what business wants.

That’s a cop out. “I can’t discuss the likely impact of AI on the economy, because you won’t agree with me on another aspect of the economy” How old are you? Five?

A poll of Americans showed over 70% are worried about job losses due to AI. Yet, their election was fought on mass deportations of people currently doing jobs Americans don’t want to do while ignoring the issue of them losing the jobs they currently have. Talk about bait and switch.

It will be the same here. The developed world is potentially at the foothills of profound change. What do we focus on? Yeah, people stuck in a hotel awaiting asylum applications to be processed. A problem that is likely to disappear as the Government uses the recent court ruling to build a camp or two and stick them in there.

I know people are dumb, but come on guys.

 

[hampshireblue]

Who'd have thought that increasing taxes on businesses would lead to job losses and price increases eh? I know, shocking.

Inflation up, so the cost of living crisis for working people gets worse, so they have less disposable income, which means they spend less, which reduces economic growth, which reduces government income.

Unemployment up, so the tax take falls, which also leaves the government with less money, so more borrowing required. Or better still, more tax rises further tanking the economy.

People who are buying government debt get this which explains why 30 year gilt yields are through the roof, meaning the cost of financing our growing debt gets ever more restrictive for government finances.

This is all basic stuff that even I can understand, yet the chancellor already has us in a debt doom loop, I'm looking for signs that she knows what she's doing and I'm coming up with nothing.

Having said that, the main thing of concern to our lefty brethren is that nasty right wing people are posting their criticism of the Labour government in a thread entitled The Labour Government, after them having spent a decade on here whinging about everything, in every thread, all day every day, ad nauseum. Oh the irony.

Sticking people in the same category can work both ways. And in fact that leads to the roots of many of the social issues: eg

All immigrants are rapists
All lefties are woke
All Reform voters are racist
All people who claim benefits are lazy scroungers....

Not helpful is it?

 

[blueinsa]

History would disagree with you on that, the Conservative Government and Boris Johnson threads were the go to place for lefties. This far out from an election opposition parties just watch as Government fucks up.

Labour were not in power if you remember and didn’t have to find any answers they cried as they filled the Tory threads with 14 years of what they now claim is bitter moaning.

Now everyone has to be supportive and understanding;-)

 

[hilts]

That’s a cop out. “I can’t discuss the likely impact of AI on the economy, because you won’t agree with me on another aspect of the economy” How old are you? Five?

A poll of Americans showed over 70% are worried about job losses due to AI. Yet, their election was fought on mass deportations of people currently doing jobs Americans don’t want to do while ignoring the issue of them losing the jobs they currently have. Talk about bait and switch.

It will be the same here. The developed world is potentially at the foothills of profound change. What do we focus on? Yeah, people stuck in a hotel awaiting asylum applications to be processed. A problem that is likely to disappear as the Government uses the recent court ruling to build a camp or two and stick them in there.

I know people are dumb, but come on guys.

Never said we couldn't discuss, by people I meant politicians academics the public pretty much everyone.

Strange conclusion to jump to. In fact I believe it was you who gave the impression of generally being not arsed and kind of give off the whaddya gonna do vibe like a bad Italian actor.:-)

I've already asked why would companies be generous with this universal wage and was met with silence. Its like getting blood out of a stone with you which generally leads me to believe you don't really have any answers outside of coping with the here and now.

That is just fine if you.just said so. Don't try to put unwillingness to discuss on anyone else, that's just dishonest of you I'm afraid.

 

[hampshireblue]

Labour were not in power if you remember and didn’t have to find any answers they cried as they filled the Tory threads with 14 years of what they now claim is bitter moaning.

Now everyone has to be supportive and understanding;-)

Interestingly the economy is in it's 3rd quarter of growth on the trot for the first time since 2023. Something is going slightly better than we are led to believe. A long way to go though.

 

[blueinsa]

Interestingly the economy is in it's 3rd quarter of growth on the trot for the first time since 2023. Something is going slightly better than we are led to believe. A long way to go though.

It is but it’s painfully slow and of course, for balance, we have just had the 3rd straight month of inflation rises which is a real worry.

The budget is going to be make or break but to be fair, they always are.

 

[inbetween]

The UK won’t be concreted over. Less than 10% of the UK’s habitual land is developed. Let’s try and keep some sense of proportion.

This is not wholly correct or at least it misses the point because only 14.5% of land in England is utilised for 'natural' purposes. Scotland massively skews the UK figures because Scotland is big and most of it is mountains.... Hardly a good place for a farm or town and not the most biodiverse place either.

The rest however is indeed developed upon in some form whether as cities, towns, farmland or something else. Certainly in England that leaves a habitat that is arguably 80%+ smaller than 100 years ago.

It's quite obvious what is going to happen if the population continues to increase because we'll need more farms to feed people and we'll need more development such as houses to house them. That natural 14.5% is quite clearly going to degrade into nothing and eventually the only living things left will be found in zoos, farms or feeding off our bins.

 

[Hertzblue]

Your figures are a projection. Just as the ONS figures are a projection and everyone else’s figures are a projection based on assumptions about (falling) fertility rates, net immigration levels and demographic trends.

The economy dictates how much labour it needs and domestic shortfall is made up with immigration. That is how our and other economies work. That’s our current reality. Whether that continues with technological advances and AI etc who knows - I outlined some thoughts on this in the Immigration thread - but, if it’s 1 million or 10 million or 20 million growth in population by 2050 then so be it.

In short. Not arsed.

They aren't my figures, they are the figures of an OBR economist, and again they are not a projection as to what is likely to happen, they are a calculation of the number of 24 year old migrants required to support the demographic based immigration Ponzi scheme you have vociferously promoted.
To quote Mr Miles..
"Twenty million extra young people would need to arrive in the UK over the next 40 years to stabilise the dependency ratio at its current level. That would imply a UK population of around 100 million by 2064.."

You have argued for this like its still 2005, like the last 20 years haven't happened, like we haven't added the best part of 10 million since then, yet you say you are not arsed if we do add a further 20 million - Lunacy in plain sight !

I am not convinced , despite your claims otherwise that you cannot see that is completely unsustainable, I think you have dug this hole for yourself without properly thinking through the consequences as no one had done the numbers ( or more likely not published them ) and your claim not to be arsed if it is 20 million more is no more than bravado.

I outlined some thoughts on this in the Immigration thread - but, if it’s 1 million or 10 million or 20 million growth in population by 2050 then so be it.

More appropriate for you would have been ..
" I outlined some thoughts on this in the Immigration thread which in the light of new information may or may not have been complete bollocks "

 

[BobKowalski]

Never said we couldn't discuss, by people I meant politicians academics the public pretty much everyone.

Strange conclusion to jump to. In fact I believe it was you who gave the impression of generally being not arsed and kind of give off the whaddya gonna do vibe like a bad Italian actor.:-)

I've already asked why would companies be generous with this universal wage and was met with silence. Its like getting blood out of a stone with you which generally leads me to believe you don't really have any answers outside of coping with the here and now.

That is just fine if you.just said so. Don't try to put unwillingness to discuss on anyone else, that's just dishonest of you I'm afraid.

The subject is being discussed elsewhere. In the US, which is a primary driver and market, it is portrayed as a benefit to ‘everyone’ with the downsides to the job market underplayed. Yet everyone can see the threat and young college graduates are feeling the threat according to some analysts. Uber are trialing driverless taxis next spring in London after the Government removed objections, so the conversation will increase over here.

Companies, especially in the US, are not going to be generous. It will have to be Government mandated/taxed. But, it will be necessary if the consumer economy is to be maintained. It needs consumers to buy stuff. Remove that engine and there isn’t much left. This cuts across traditional ideology and the ‘deserving poor’ worldview which drives US political outlook especially on the right, but is also prevalent here. The idea people are getting ‘money for nothing’ drives a lot of people insane with rage. Benefit cheats, asylum seekers etc.

Taking this forward it then becomes a question of what the economy looks like and just as we have become an advanced manufacturing country rather than a general one do we become an advanced services economy and who will thrive and who won’t in this environment. Will it evolve into a society/economy that needs less people, but demographics still matter. Innovation is a young person’s domain. A society needs a healthy balance of age groups. A stratified top heavy layer of people over 65+ is not desirable, but is that conventional wisdom likely to become outdated?

 

[ganganvince]

It is but it’s painfully slow and of course, for balance, we have just had the 3rd straight month of inflation rises which is a real worry.

The budget is going to be make or break but to be fair, they always are.

TBH if they hadn't gone in with a sledgehammer on WFA and benefits meaning they had to back track they wouldn't be in this situation.