The Labour Government

Brewster's millions said:
My post related to the OBR’s productivity forecasts because that’s the issue being discussed, namely how the OBR believe Brexit has impaired productivity, how this has hampered GDP growth and in turn reduced tax receipts.

It’s also relevant given that Reeves is currently attempting to paint the imminent, further downgrade to the OBR’s productivity forecasts as a surprise, and something that she couldn’t have accounted for when she chose to push borrowing dramatically higher in her Budget last October. Unfortunately the evidence strongly suggests that a productivity downgrade is an ongoing risk - more likely than not, in fact - and that this factor really should have tempered her plans last year. Given the central importance of productivity growth to the fiscal projections overall, it was a major gamble from Reeves and unfortunately it has backfired in fairly short order.

At no point did I question the OBR’s competence in other areas, or indeed the value of having the OBR. It’s an argument purely of your own making, so I’ll leave you to argue that one with yourself if that’s ok.
Click to expand...
It's only what is being discussed because you raised it FFS. You piled in and decided to make it about the OBR-no one else mentioned them.

If you saying the following:


"Back in November 2011 the OBR expected cumulative labour productivity growth of 9.5% over the next five years, and in actual fact productivity increased by about 1% over that period. A huge forecast error, by anyone’s standards. And yet you believe that their estimate around how Brexit might impact UK productivity - which at 1.4%pts constitutes a mere fraction of their earlier forecast errors - is definitely correct and the root cause of the UK’s fiscal problems."


is not raising doubt about the OBR I don't know what is.


No one was "arguing" until you joined in.

But as usual BKB.
 
hampshireblue said:
It's only what is being discussed because you raised it FFS. You piled in and decided to make it about the OBR-no one else mentioned them.

If you saying the following:


"Back in November 2011 the OBR expected cumulative labour productivity growth of 9.5% over the next five years, and in actual fact productivity increased by about 1% over that period. A huge forecast error, by anyone’s standards. And yet you believe that their estimate around how Brexit might impact UK productivity - which at 1.4%pts constitutes a mere fraction of their earlier forecast errors - is definitely correct and the root cause of the UK’s fiscal problems."


is not raising doubt about the OBR I don't know what is.


No one was "arguing" until you joined in.

But as usual BKB.
Click to expand...
You stated that the apparent £40bn per annum reduction in tax revenues due to Brexit - a figure based on an OBR estimate - was an unavoidable fact. So, sit down for this one, that’s why the OBR was discussed.

Not only have you ended up arguing with yourself on this one, you’ve also ended up having an argument about something that you didn’t even know you were arguing about.

There’s no flies on you, is there?
 
Last edited:
Brewster's millions said:
You stated that the apparent £40bn per annum reduction in tax revenues due to Brexit - a figure based on an OBR estimate - was an unavoidable fact. So, sit down for this one, that’s why the OBR was discussed.

Not only have you ended up arguing with yourself on this one, you’ve also ended up having an argument about something that you didn’t even know you were arguing about.

There’s no flies on you, is there?
Click to expand...
BKB the psychologist strikes!!

What a shame for you the OBR wasn't the only organisation to come up with the same figure. TTFN
 
mosssideblue said:
And will be kicked out again
Click to expand...
I’m interested to see what his background is and why he came back. Surely he couldn’t afford another crossing by the smugglers so is he expected to pay it off by working for some ‘unsavories’ or pay off his passage when he gains employment?

Understanding these types of reasons can lead to countermeasures.
 
Last edited:
NPBlue said:
It is depressing, but it isn't her fault.

Brexit has reduced tax revenues by £40B a year, and who's fault is that? The same people that lied through their teeth to achieve it for their own financial gain, and now rail against her for having to deal with the situation they created.
Click to expand...

She knew about Brexit before becoming chancellor so she is being disingenuous by making out this is something entirely new to her. I get it though, it’s politics. I don’t want to raise taxes but it’s all the fault of them nasty reform folk who wanted it and the nasty Tory folk who allowed the referendum to happen. None of this is my fault.
 
Brexit has been the elephant in the room that no one (that is, no mainstream politician) dared to bring up until now.

Reality has finally forced it back into polite conversation, and about fucking time too. Only a fool would blame Brexit for all our economic problems. But only another fool would deny that it has made a considerable contribution to the mess. Moreover, the other major factors (Covid, the Ukraine war, the chimp in the White House) are wholly (or almost wholly) beyond the control of any UK government. Rather like the weather, they have to be endured.
 
Interesting that the enquiry Labour never wanted to have is collapsing before it's even begun.
Rape gangs getting swept under the carpet again. Victims being made to feel worthless all over again.
Shocking
 
Kush45 said:
Interesting that the enquiry Labour never wanted to have is collapsing before it's even begun.
Rape gangs getting swept under the carpet again. Victims being made to feel worthless all over again.
Shocking
Click to expand...
Interesting that the enquiry the Tories wanted to have is collapsing before it's even begun.

After their chosen MP (Johnson) had complained about the malarkey of £60m spaffed up the wall on investigating historic abuse (said during the previous inquiry).

(There's a separate thread for this.)
 
Kush45 said:
Interesting that the enquiry Labour never wanted to have is collapsing before it's even begun.
Rape gangs getting swept under the carpet again. Victims being made to feel worthless all over again.
Shocking
Click to expand...

I’m not a labour fan and never have been but I don’t think they’re to blame for that this time round. I wouldn’t take the words of some of the victims as being representative of all, particularly with some of the things they’re criticising.

The politics of it aren’t primarily what some people are saying it is.
 
The Future’s Blue! said:
I’m interested to see what his background is and why he came back. Surely he couldn’t afford another crossing by the smugglers so is he expected to pay it off by working for some ‘unsavories’ or pay off his passage when he gains employment?

Understanding these types of reasons can lead to countermeasures.
Click to expand...

Apparently back because they were being put into slavery in Paris so fled here for their own safety….
 
Vic said:
Interesting that the enquiry the Tories wanted to have is collapsing before it's even begun.

After their chosen MP (Johnson) had complained about the malarkey of £60m spaffed up the wall on investigating historic abuse (said during the previous inquiry).

(There's a separate thread for this.)
Click to expand...
As there is for deflecting away.from the current govt onto the previous ones.
 
Kush45 said:
Interesting that the enquiry Labour never wanted to have is collapsing before it's even begun.
Rape gangs getting swept under the carpet again. Victims being made to feel worthless all over again.
Shocking
Click to expand...

Jess has the full confidence of the PM so fear not as we know how that always ends don’t we?
 
Kush45 said:
Interesting that the enquiry Labour never wanted to have is collapsing before it's even begun.
Rape gangs getting swept under the carpet again. Victims being made to feel worthless all over again.
Shocking
Click to expand...
I honestly don’t think anything wrong has been done with the enquiry.

Think this is what happens when you get victims involved who don’t carnt be expect to understand procedure the law and may have there own pre conceived political opinions
 
Brewster's millions said:
Good to see this fabled £40bn figure getting an airing again.

An estimate based on someone drawing a straight line on a graph from 2016, and which ignores any impact from the greatest disruption to hit developed economies since WW2. And indeed the performance of comparable economies within the EU over the past decade.

The unfortunate truth is that meaningful revisions to the OBR’s productivity estimates are nothing new, and the downgrade set to be revealed next month will in fact be small relative to some of those seen in the OBR’s formative years.

This risk of changing potential GDP assumptions, of any actual Brexit drag and the threat of entrenched inflation / higher borrowing costs were all obvious a year ago. Startlingly obvious in fact. And yet Reeves still chose to push borrowing higher by hundreds of billions of pounds, and decided that a margin for error of under £10bn five years’ forward, in a highly uncertain environment, was appropriate.

Her own judgements, and the government’s shambolic attempts to curb the growth of welfare expenditure, are the reasons why Reeves will need to raise taxes again next month. An apparent one-off punishing tax grab last October, not to be repeated in this parliament, and yet here we are again 12 months down the line

It’s rank incompetence and Reeves can’t reasonably blame anyone other than herself for the mess she’s created.
Click to expand...
The welfare budget is completely the wrong target and it is being done purely to appease knuckle-druggers. The welfare budget is a pittance because people on welfare get very little and it's barely enough to live. The number of outright benefit cheats is also a completely irrelevant figure.

This is ideological and not logical because what would you do? The welfare budget is around £50bn so would you save at best £1-2bn within that or would you spend the £50bn+ needed to fix the NHS so that waiting lists can be reduced to get people off welfare entirely?

The latter is obviously the ideal choice but who is making that argument? This is where government constantly fails us. Government is not run for the better of people, it is run as an Excel spreadsheet. The simple fact is nothing will change because it is actually cheaper to keep people on welfare versus the great expense of fixing the NHS and getting people back to work.
 
Last edited:
WRicko said:
I honestly don’t think anything wrong has been done with the enquiry.

Think this is what happens when you get victims involved who don’t carnt be expect to understand procedure the law and may have there own pre conceived political opinions
Click to expand...
Blame the victims...?? Really..
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Unread Posts

Don't have an account? Register now and see fewer ads!

SIGN UP
Back
Top