The Labour Government

[hampshireblue]

What the NBER gets wrong on the ‘Economic Impact of Brexit’

Sometimes you need to put your computer models down and apply a little common sense!

julianhjessop.substack.com

This is the first thing I came across disputing the number on loss of gdp. He's an independent economist(is anyone?) Who writes for the Telegraph so obviously will be dismissed by remainers. Im not an economist as most arent. So whether people just dismiss it or read it is up to them. People struggle to get past the author and therefore will not entertain anything they write.

But anyhow I look at where we are as a country in Europe compared to Germany and France, they feel like the best countries to compare with. Before brexit during the aftermath and up to 2025 its been Germany a bit better than the UK and the UK a bit better than France. If we have comiited such a large own goal of epic proportions this seems odd. It also doesnt help when previous figures have proved to be wrong. If it was a faulty calculation last time why is this one right or accurate.There is also stats saying we have outperformed countries since brexit but I wouldn't put that down to brexit.

So no we dont all agree and I dont believe never leaving or rejoining would have/will considerably alleviate our problems. That's even before we consider if gdp is a good indicator of a countries well being.

I didn't even vote with the economy as a priority.

Anyhow I judge myself for being dragged into brexit debates:-)

I'm not sure a direct comparison to Germany, France or any other EU member is sensible though. EVERY UK business that trades with the EU has suffered from increased costs and paperwork just to stand still. The same is not the case for EU based businesses in that only, and being simplistic, only a 27th of their business has been subject to those increased costs. I hope you get my point.

We know that, like much of the developed world, the EU has suffered from sluggish growth as a bloc, but it is still a fact that 52% decided to make it much harder for UK businesses to trade with the biggest trading bloc on the planet.

 

[mind your car Mr?]

Except the vast amount of MPs that come from ordinary backgrounds and have worked in ordinary jobs.

What's an ordinary job

 

[hampshireblue]

Nett migration down to 209,000 from 620,000. Things are quickly going to get so much better as a result of this. Think of all those job opportunites for your kids and grand kids. Abattoirs, food production lines, care homes, car washes, hospitality, hospital porters, the list is endless ;-)

 

[hampshireblue]

Jeez man spare the faux outrage it was a throwaway line. Any minimum wage job. They’re paid too much. Aside from economic considerations salary bunching acts as a disincentive to make the sacrifices needed to strive for promotion or a better job elsewhere.

This has to be a wind up but if not, I bet you're a hoot to know. Any minimum wage job is effectively worthless and unnecessary to you then. Care workers, street cleaners, hotel staff...all worthless. No doubt you have no cause to use any of those types of workers.

 

[threespires]

Jeez man spare the faux outrage it was a throwaway line. Any minimum wage job. They’re paid too much. Aside from economic considerations salary bunching acts as a disincentive to make the sacrifices needed to strive for promotion or a better job elsewhere.

So just for clarity, are you saying the large number of people in the care sector on or around minimum wage are paid too much?

 

[BlueHammer85]

What's an ordinary job

Retail workers / shop staff / cashiers / checkout operators

Often in lower pay brackets — on weekly pay tables from previous ONS data such roles (e.g. “retail cashiers and check-out operators”) had gross weekly pay among the lower earners. Wikipedia+1

Care workers / care assistants / support workers / warehouse operatives / administrative assistants

Frequently in the ~£20,000–£30,000/year range for full-time work. Ciphr+1

Warehouse staff / manual labour / “elementary services” / catering assistants / kitchen / catering staff / cleaners / domestics / hospitality staff (waiting, bar work, etc.)

Generally among the lower-paid occupations. According older ONS pay tables such as “kitchen and catering assistants,” “hairdressers and barbers”, “waiters/waitresses” — these roles were listed among the lowest weekly gross pay categories. Wikipedia+1

Mid–level common roles (e.g. LGV driver, retail manager, book-keeper, some clerical/admin jobs)

 

[hampshireblue]

Retail workers / shop staff / cashiers / checkout operators

Often in lower pay brackets — on weekly pay tables from previous ONS data such roles (e.g. “retail cashiers and check-out operators”) had gross weekly pay among the lower earners. Wikipedia+1

Care workers / care assistants / support workers / warehouse operatives / administrative assistants

Frequently in the ~£20,000–£30,000/year range for full-time work. Ciphr+1

Warehouse staff / manual labour / “elementary services” / catering assistants / kitchen / catering staff / cleaners / domestics / hospitality staff (waiting, bar work, etc.)

Generally among the lower-paid occupations. According older ONS pay tables such as “kitchen and catering assistants,” “hairdressers and barbers”, “waiters/waitresses” — these roles were listed among the lowest weekly gross pay categories. Wikipedia+1

Mid–level common roles (e.g. LGV driver, retail manager, book-keeper, some clerical/admin jobs)

All overpaid and many of them not really necessary according to Axel

 

[west didsblue]

Is Axel Chippy’s new username?

 

[zandvoort blue]

It's coming to a sad state of affairs when a Government gets elected on the basis of a protest vote. And then they're in danger of being ousted by another protest vote. Smacks of no fucker actually knowing what to do.

 

[mind your car Mr?]

Retail workers / shop staff / cashiers / checkout operators

Often in lower pay brackets — on weekly pay tables from previous ONS data such roles (e.g. “retail cashiers and check-out operators”) had gross weekly pay among the lower earners. Wikipedia+1

Care workers / care assistants / support workers / warehouse operatives / administrative assistants

Frequently in the ~£20,000–£30,000/year range for full-time work. Ciphr+1

Warehouse staff / manual labour / “elementary services” / catering assistants / kitchen / catering staff / cleaners / domestics / hospitality staff (waiting, bar work, etc.)

Generally among the lower-paid occupations. According older ONS pay tables such as “kitchen and catering assistants,” “hairdressers and barbers”, “waiters/waitresses” — these roles were listed among the lowest weekly gross pay categories. Wikipedia+1

Mid–level common roles (e.g. LGV driver, retail manager, book-keeper, some clerical/admin jobs)

how may of our MPs have done those jobs, bearing in mind you said the vast amount have?

 

[117 M34]

Stewards at City

If them low paid goon stewards all quit today, none of us would be going to the match on saturday.
Some other low paid goons stack the shelves in the supermarket you buy from, clean your street so you aren't infested with rats and work in the facotries making the food and household items you are constantly buying.

If we didn't have these 'low paid goons', your life would be a lot worse.

 

[kaz7]

Reeves should have jumped over to Badenoch and twatted fuck out of her. Badenoch is an abusive Tory cowbag.

Yeah that's me being abusive.

This, she is the only woman i have ever seen using mysogony (sp) against another woman, what a disgusting cuntish thing to do,i wonder what her view is about tate and co, women have to have each others backs on this all and every time, disgusting bitch

I think taking kids out of poverty is right albeit expensive, hopefully less people will be using food banks, the tories dont own them being created and pushed millions of people to have to use them thanks to cameron and osbourne and the tory **** would reverse that move

I dont have my own kids( thank god ) but i have never said kids should not be looked after by my tax going to them, it is not there fault they are born

I heard Rachel say in interviews after that they are going to make pips harder to get so it sounds like she wants more face to face assessments, i get assessed every three yrs which is fine albeit it is a horrible and demeaning thing to go through, my last one i was assessed by an ex paramedic with four weeks training, drs dont do them these days, the one before covid was an ex health visitor, there is so much about pips that people dont understand

I am about to look at taking a couple of small pensions, i was going to keep it for a bit longer but as i found out this year you can die when you least expect it! I am not destined for a long life and i hope that is the case so i might as well have better comforts than i have now, i might have to pay tax again so i need to take proper advice, i am not a selfish bitch so if i need to pay tax i wont begrudge it too much

That is my limit on thinking today !

 

[hilts]

Well I did say Brexit isn't the only issue!

For the record here is my voting record in the past quarter of a century:

2001 - Labour
2005 - Didn't get to vote as I'd just moved house and even though it was less than half a mile down the road and in the same constituency I had no idea that I had to re-register until it was too late!
2010 - Conservative
2015 - Lib Dem
2017 - Lib Dem
2019 - Scrawled NONE across my ballot paper as none of the main parties filled me with confidence and I was fucked if I was going to vote for Frog Face's Brexit Party. In hindsight I should've voted for your lot as it was unfair to tar them with the same brush as the others
2024 - Labour

Fair play on 15 and 17 :-)

 

[hilts]

Stewards at City

Replaced with?

 

[hilts]

Out of interest, what do you do yourself? I’m struggling how anyone can think at a time when we’ve got ever growing wealth disparity and concentration of wealth at the top end that people on minimum wage are paid too much.

In fairness he's a cracking example of how employers dont all do enough due diligence when employing staff.

 

[BlueHammer85]

It's coming to a sad state of affairs when a Government gets elected on the basis of a protest vote. And then they're in danger of being ousted by another protest vote. Smacks of no fucker actually knowing what to do.

Smacks of everyone being whipped up by constant tidal wave of lies, misinformation and outrage, social media the biggest factor.

 

[Brewster's millions]

I said:

If only we weren't upto £90bn a year worse off.

Upto is not a fact, it's a range. As in you could win upto £10m on the lottery, not £10m exactly (but it could be)-upto.

You really are a pedantic prick sometimes and despite your BKB tag, not always right.

But here's the opening statement. I'll leave you to challenge the assumptions so you can put your fRW spin on it to justify to yourself that you're in now way to blame for the mess we are in:

This paper examines the impact of the UK's decision to leave the European Union (Brexit) in 2016. Using almost a decade of data since the referendum, we combine simulations based on macro data with estimates derived from micro data collected through our Decision Maker Panel survey. These estimates suggest that by 2025, Brexit had reduced UK GDP by 6% to 8%, with the impact accumulating gradually over time. We estimate that investment was reduced by between 12% and 18%, employment by 3% to 4% and productivity by 3% to 4%. These large negative impacts reflect a combination of elevated uncertainty, reduced demand, diverted management time, and increased misallocation of resources from a protracted Brexit process. Comparing these with contemporary forecasts – providing a rare macro example to complement the burgeoning micro-literature of social science predictions – shows that these forecasts were accurate over a 5-year horizon, but they underestimated the impact over a decade.

So, again, you’re happy to quote a big, conveniently round figure which is essentially meaningless.

I have to say though, I do find it amusing how you’re now characterising my questioning of the facts as far right wing.

Presumably glibly posting any old shit you find on the internet, accepting it without the slightest scrutiny or curiosity, spending all day listening to biased political commentary and expressing this as fact are all the hallmarks of a healthy democratic debate, and anyone question this is far right.

Makes sense.

 

[hilts]

I'm not sure a direct comparison to Germany, France or any other EU member is sensible though. EVERY UK business that trades with the EU has suffered from increased costs and paperwork just to stand still. The same is not the case for EU based businesses in that only, and being simplistic, only a 27th of their business has been subject to those increased costs. I hope you get my point.

We know that, like much of the developed world, the EU has suffered from sluggish growth as a bloc, but it is still a fact that 52% decided to make it much harder for UK businesses to trade with the biggest trading bloc on the planet.

No I don't get your point if UK business have suffered and EU ones haven't then surely France and Germany would be growing more than us and even picking up some of our business. So unless the UK would have grown massively for some unknown reason by staying in, much more than the other two, then why does it look like all 3 of us are doing pretty much the same as we were give or take.
Have businesses concentrated more on domestic markets, have they still managed to do business with the EU regardless, have they explored other countries.
It is probably ridiculously complicated and we will never know.
Anyhow as I haven't met one single person in a decade that has been badly affected and I personally wasn't that bothered about the economics plus we have remainers in charge who could get closer ties then I'm struggling to see why its so prevalent on here.

Much bigger problems to solve.

Business find ways, politicians find excuses. Everyone is too busy pointing at each other rather than actually coming up with new, big and radical ideas. Its why the budget was low on ideas but big on fiddling around the edges. All a bit meh.

 

[Palerider]

yes, I'd agree with that on the whole.

Ed Davey seems to be able to behave.

Also, there was the interesting interlude when Corbyn was leader when he often asked quite polite questions, and the PM didn't know what to do initially as there was nothing to react to.

It also happens when there is something important in question, and as you say, Starmer seems to refrain usually from personal attacks.

Yep. I actually made a typo in my original comment where I said Starmer but meant Corbyn. You are 100% correct, Corbyn, love him or hate him, always debated the policy not the personality. Starmer, though, is another who acts grown up rather than indulge in the play ground bullying.

 

[Kirkstall Blue]

Was listening to an American economist about a month ago who said that the UK was more balanced than was first thought so was a surprise to me that the media went on an ‘Income Tax Rise’ frenzy.

Although the markets have taken the budget well, and it was a bit of a ‘meh’ when it comes to it, just watching a report by Beth Rigby and she’s made it sound like Reeves has completely fucked up.

Now onto the news review and it continues, but nobody has even talked about the state of our social services that has to be funded following years of neglect.

I’m guessing that these types of media are angry that they’ve not got the ammunition to hit Reeves, and the Labour government with.

Edit: Bloke just explained it a bit, Tory commentator hit the roof. Confirmed, they’re angry.

Ps.Only lasted 13 minutes, how anybody can watch that propaganda, I’ll never know.

My thoughts exactly Beth Rigby still making out this morning, lifting babies and children out of poverty is the pits the worse thing any government could do, making people who can afford to put twenty thousand pound a year into a pension pot, I’m certain they will find another way of saving the seven thousand. Obviously Beth Rigby puts large sums of money away for retirement and lives in a mansion.

It really opens up the debate on child poverty and chances in life, how as a country we should contribute to the poor in our communities and we should.