The race for the Top 4 - RUNNERS UP, a game to spare

[GaudinoMotors]

Re: The race for the Top 4

What's the lottery numbers please mate?

Thanks for entering the debate with a worthwhile response.
The answer to your question is I don't know - but I could tell you the probability of you winning it based on figures and facts that you could draw a conclusion from.

Just don't see the logic in your post. We've looked like being in the top 2 all season. Now all of a sudden people crawl out of the woodwork with the "I knew this would happen blah blah blah".

To be fair to me - I've been consistently pessimistic all season. Not played particularly well all year, had a decent start as far as points were concerned but the regression of our players, the predictability, the introduction and non introdction of new signings, the seeming lack of awareness of the oppsotion, the substitutions and selections etc etc. All this and the fact that teams like nitid and arsenal were finding their feet after shaky statrts, was concerning.
Is the latest attack now that anyone who didn't think everything was hunky dory this season is accused of coming out of the woodwork they were never in??

 

[supercity88]

Re: The race for the Top 4

We beat the rags we finish in the top 3. The rags have to go to Chelsea and they're unlikely to win there. It will be touch and go whether we can finish above Arsenal though. We're in appalling form but form goes out the window for a derby and if we win we will have the confidence to carry us to the top3. If we lose or draw we have a fight on our hands and we've been there and done it under pressure. We do NOT want to finish 4th. This thread should be about the top 3 - we don't want a qualifier during what should be pre-season.

 

[afc16]

Re: The race for the Top 4

Needs to be top 3, would anybody be confident of qualifying in a 2 leg play off ?

No. Then again, does anyone know what quality of team we're likely to draw if we do end up having to play a qualifier? I'm assuming we'd be seeded and would therefore be playing an unseeded team but we could still end up playing a decent quality side. In recent years Arsenal have had to play the likes of Udinese who at the time were a good team.

A few weeks ago I was saying I'd snatch your hand off for 2nd place - now I'd snatch your hand off for 3rd!

Speaking from a lot of experience, I'd be surprised if a top pl team didn't get through. You can occasionally get a half decent team like udinese/Napoli like we've had, but on the whole ur unlikely to face a team anywhere near as strong as yourselves so shouldn't be too concerned about qualifying.

The bigger issue it causes is having to play those games well before the season starts properly, and there although it will never ever be admitted by managers, it affects potential signings who won't sign until they know we are defo in the cl and also owners who won't spend until they know they are defo in the cl.

 

[oppa gangnam style]

Re: The race for the Top 4

top3 is the bare minimum. With 4th we would have to play a tie for CL group stage and I am not confident we would be winning that tie.

Not mentioning about 5-10m extra income thrown out as they do share some of the prize money based on which place do you qualify from. This season imo we will get about 10m€ more than Arsenal even tho they were better in group stage and did not get futher in knock out stages. All down to we came into the CL as 1st placed inPL while they from being 4th...

So 4th place is immediately 5-10m loss, epsecially as CL prize money for English clubs grow from next season, but the CL tie would be another risk where all the 30-35m pounds would be risked.

30m/year is the cost of an 80m player on 4 year contract with 200k weekly wages. I would say being 4th could delay maybe one of our big signing in the summer until late August, so until that our rivals could move for him easily.

Make top3!!!!

 

[MeatHunterrr]

Re: The race for the Top 4

top3 is the bare minimum. With 4th we would have to play a tie for CL group stage and I am not confident we would be winning that tie.

Not mentioning about 5-10m extra income thrown out as they do share some of the prize money based on which place do you qualify from. This season imo we will get about 10m€ more than Arsenal even tho they were better in group stage and did not get futher in knock out stages. All down to we came into the CL as 1st placed inPL while they from being 4th...

So 4th place is immediately 5-10m loss, epsecially as CL prize money for English clubs grow from next season, but the CL tie would be another risk where all the 30-35m pounds would be risked.

30m/year is the cost of an 80m player on 4 year contract with 200k weekly wages. I would say being 4th could delay maybe one of our big signing in the summer until late August, so until that our rivals could move for him easily.

Make top3!!!!

Didn't Arsenal finish 4th last year and signed Alexis Sanchez mid-July despite having to play that qualifying round? But I agree, I would not be confident of getting through that qualifying round, you just know we would get shafted either by referee or some shitty draw like Valencia or Atletico.

 

[afc16]

Re: The race for the Top 4

Being optimistic I think we'll finish 3rd

I haven't given up on 2nd.

Arsenal invariably go to pieces at the end. Liverpool have already gone to pieces. The big question is the rags really. I'll be enormously gutted if we finish behind them. What a fucking disaster that would be, so let's make sure we smash the bastards at the weekend!

What makes you think this? Clearly not based on any real observations of arsenal. We have had numerous strong runs in the last 10 games or so to overtake Spurs or Everton or whoever are there, and they were miles ahead of us before this run. In fact I would struggle to think of a team that has won more points then arsenal in the last 5-10 games in recent seasons.

Moreover, we are the most inform team in 2015, both in terms of points and quality of football. What makes you think we'll suddenly collapse now? We've got our strongest team in years instead of the usual having half the players out injured. Wilshere and Walcott and ox should be available for the run in to add more options. i honestly can't think of a stronger team of fit and on form players/team right now, including Chelsea.

 

[afc16]

Re: The race for the Top 4

top3 is the bare minimum. With 4th we would have to play a tie for CL group stage and I am not confident we would be winning that tie.

Not mentioning about 5-10m extra income thrown out as they do share some of the prize money based on which place do you qualify from. This season imo we will get about 10m€ more than Arsenal even tho they were better in group stage and did not get futher in knock out stages. All down to we came into the CL as 1st placed inPL while they from being 4th...

So 4th place is immediately 5-10m loss, epsecially as CL prize money for English clubs grow from next season, but the CL tie would be another risk where all the 30-35m pounds would be risked.

30m/year is the cost of an 80m player on 4 year contract with 200k weekly wages. I would say being 4th could delay maybe one of our big signing in the summer until late August, so until that our rivals could move for him easily.

Make top3!!!!

Didn't Arsenal finish 4th last year and signed Alexis Sanchez mid-July despite having to play that qualifying round? But I agree, I would not be confident of getting through that qualifying round, you just know we would get shafted either by referee or some shitty draw like Valencia or Atletico.

We did, and not saying it's not possible obviously but at the same time a lot of our players in recent seasons have been magically signed after we've for through group stages. It's understandable as players want to know if ur in the cl or not, owners want to know as well before spending the money. Put simply, if ur going for the world class players, it definetly isn't gojng to make it any easier to sign them having the uncertainty of qualifier.

Not Saying sterling is world class but to use as an example, he will want to leave Liverpool for a cl club, would he sign for city (or arsenal if we finish 4th) not knowing if ur in it or not until late August?

 

[IH8MUFC]

Re: The race for the Top 4

Being optimistic I think we'll finish 3rd

I haven't given up on 2nd.

Arsenal invariably go to pieces at the end. Liverpool have already gone to pieces. The big question is the rags really. I'll be enormously gutted if we finish behind them. What a fucking disaster that would be, so let's make sure we smash the bastards at the weekend!

What makes you think this? Clearly not based on any real observations of arsenal. We have had numerous strong runs in the last 10 games or so to overtake Spurs or Everton or whoever are there, and they were miles ahead of us before this run. In fact I would struggle to think of a team that has won more points then arsenal in the last 5-10 games in recent seasons.

Moreover, we are the most inform team in 2015, both in terms of points and quality of football. What makes you think we'll suddenly collapse now? We've got our strongest team in years instead of the usual having half the players out injured. Wilshere and Walcott and ox should be available for the run in to add more options. i honestly can't think of a stronger team of fit and on form players/team right now, including Chelsea.

You should be challenging for the title with your squad. Yet some how Arsenal just can't sustain anything for a whole season.

 

[waspish]

Re: The race for the Top 4

I haven't given up on 2nd.

Arsenal invariably go to pieces at the end. Liverpool have already gone to pieces. The big question is the rags really. I'll be enormously gutted if we finish behind them. What a fucking disaster that would be, so let's make sure we smash the bastards at the weekend!

What makes you think this? Clearly not based on any real observations of arsenal. We have had numerous strong runs in the last 10 games or so to overtake Spurs or Everton or whoever are there, and they were miles ahead of us before this run. In fact I would struggle to think of a team that has won more points then arsenal in the last 5-10 games in recent seasons.

Moreover, we are the most inform team in 2015, both in terms of points and quality of football. What makes you think we'll suddenly collapse now? We've got our strongest team in years instead of the usual having half the players out injured. Wilshere and Walcott and ox should be available for the run in to add more options. i honestly can't think of a stronger team of fit and on form players/team right now, including Chelsea.

You should be challenging for the title with your squad. Yet some how Arsenal just can't sustain anything for a whole season.

yeah they should and the media let them off lightly, like top four is a good season for them unlike us who have to win the league or its a shit season

 

[citymad]

Re: The race for the Top 4

We beat the rags we finish in the top 3. The rags have to go to Chelsea and they're unlikely to win there. It will be touch and go whether we can finish above Arsenal though. We're in appalling form but form goes out the window for a derby and if we win we will have the confidence to carry us to the top3. If we lose or draw we have a fight on our hands and we've been there and done it under pressure. We do NOT want to finish 4th. This thread should be about the top 3 - we don't want a qualifier during what should be pre-season.

The fact of returning from their holidays early to play that qualifier should be incentive enough. I can't imagine Merlin, Sergio, Zabba being too pleased considering they had the World Cup last year.