Cobwebcat said:
My trouble is that I'm a stats geek and part-time Footall statitician. I don't trust my own perceptions let alone others.
Forums are for debate and I make a rod for my own back because I should know that people believe what they like even in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary.
Certain things can be, and have been, caluclated by academics and mathematicians. Occassionally I read an opinion that I know not to be true like "teams often play better with ten men" it's not true but lots of people still say it. It makes me more mad than it should ;-)
The most annoying thing to me is posters that really put themselves forward as a cut above in the knowledge steaks and yet are consistently wrong. I'm afraid Didsbury Dave is a prime example...full of self importance but proveably incorrect more times than most. It's not the negativity... I would be the same if he were being positive but still wrong. However it is a lot easier to be negative in my opinion..people like complaining more than they do praising (and that's measureable too!)
You mention you would give Mancini 7/10. I would give him a higher mark because I can see figures showing how good he is but people will generally ignore them because it doesn't fit what they believe.
If we just take Mancini, there are only a handfull of managers better, but there are a few admittedly. Since he's taken over this is what I've seen from people that don't believe we should carry on with him:
"Mancini is not the right appointment he will never win us a trophy"
Mancini wins the FA Cup.
"OK so he won a cup but he didn't get us into the Chamions League we finished 5th"
Mancini gets us into the Champions League
"Yeah but we need to win the Premiership with our funds we've got no chance with Mancini in charge"
Mancini wins the Premiership
The same people are back now saying "Mancini will never do well in Europe he never has"
You can perhaps see my frustration. I'm no happy clapper and City have made lots of errors but appointing Mancini wasn't one of them. If we were to fire him at the moment it would be a mistake and I'd criticise City for it. At the moment I don't think we will so I argue with the people who think we should.
I shouldn't bother though I've only ever changed my own incorrect perceptions with stats never another posters. Football is very emotive, it's the modern day religion, and it doesn't matter how many skulls you show someone if they want to believe God created man and earth in 7 days.
I'll look out for Goo's posts in future. Not because he is being positive but because I can see that many of his points are proveably correct in the same way that many of DD's are nonsense (though he is perfectly entitled to believe them)
You seem to be holding yourself up as the arbiter of right and wrong simply because your a "a stats geek and part-time Footall statitician". I was going to reply your post bit by bit until i realised it was just a barely disguised attempt to out Dave, Dave, for which it has failed miserably because you simply cannot with a straight face say "The most annoying thing to me is posters that really put themselves forward as a cut above in the knowledge steaks and yet are consistently wrong" when right and wrong in football is wildly subjective.
Before you start bashing me round the head with websites and statistics which somehow "prove" Mancini's abilities, I'll let you know I think he's a top coach who has a fantastic statistical record which will never ever take into account Calciopoli and it's effect on the Serie A.
The absolute key to the "how good is Mancini?" question is whether your asking about him as a coach or him as a manager. As a coach he has proven that he has the qualities to fashion winning teams. As a manager he has proven he has the qualities to piss off and alienate his players. I think you and quite a few others seem to think as long as he does the former, the latter is irrelevant. However my own personal experiences of talking with players or people in and around football is that if you don't have the qualities to man manage your players, your coaching skills won't have the consistent impact required so you have to either constantly change your squad of players, or constantly change clubs.
It's an argument about Mancini that has done the rounds since his very early days at the club. This is incredibly old news now but gives an insight into how little empathy Mancini has for his players. When City played in a Europe a few years ago a certain player's wife was pregnant and due to go into labour the night of the game. The player requested via Mancini's assistant that he be allowed to stay back in the UK. Mancini told him in no uncertain terms that he had to travel, and then proceeded to not even pick the player in the match day squad. The player no longer plays for City not because City wanted to sell him, but because he privately requested and transfer and was granted it.
