The Same Old Traps

[OB1]

OK when people have stopped hugging each other I'll apologise.

My trouble is that I'm a stats geek and part-time Footall statitician. I don't trust my own perceptions let alone others.

Forums are for debate and I make a rod for my own back because I should know that people believe what they like even in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary.

Certain things can be, and have been, caluclated by academics and mathematicians. Occassionally I read an opinion that I know not to be true like "teams often play better with ten men" it's not true but lots of people still say it. It makes me more mad than it should ;-)

The most annoying thing to me is posters that really put themselves forward as a cut above in the knowledge steaks and yet are consistently wrong. I'm afraid Didsbury Dave is a prime example...full of self importance but proveably incorrect more times than most. It's not the negativity... I would be the same if he were being positive but still wrong. However it is a lot easier to be negative in my opinion..people like complaining more than they do praising (and that's measureable too!)

You mention you would give Mancini 7/10. I would give him a higher mark because I can see figures showing how good he is but people will generally ignore them because it doesn't fit what they believe.

If we just take Mancini, there are only a handfull of managers better, but there are a few admittedly. Since he's taken over this is what I've seen from people that don't believe we should carry on with him:

"Mancini is not the right appointment he will never win us a trophy"

Mancini wins the FA Cup.

"OK so he won a cup but he didn't get us into the Chamions League we finished 5th"

Mancini gets us into the Champions League

"Yeah but we need to win the Premiership with our funds we've got no chance with Mancini in charge"

Mancini wins the Premiership

The same people are back now saying "Mancini will never do well in Europe he never has"

You can perhaps see my frustration. I'm no happy clapper and City have made lots of errors but appointing Mancini wasn't one of them. If we were to fire him at the moment it would be a mistake and I'd criticise City for it. At the moment I don't think we will so I argue with the people who think we should.

I shouldn't bother though I've only ever changed my own incorrect perceptions with stats never another posters. Football is very emotive, it's the modern day religion, and it doesn't matter how many skulls you show someone if they want to believe God created man and earth in 7 days.

I'll look out for Goo's posts in future. Not because he is being positive but because I can see that many of his points are proveably correct in the same way that many of DD's are nonsense (though he is perfectly entitled to believe them)

Stats are fine, I'm a big fan of them, and they do help to bring ojectivity to the debate aout football but they aren't the whole story. Unfortunately, plenty of supporters do not appreciate their value.

The stats though won't tell you that City should have won the League Cup last year but, IMO, we should have and therefore I have to point to that as one of the reasons I don't think Mancini has done astonishingly well. Stats will tell you that there is a high correlation between a team's wage bill and its levels of success; that is another reason though why Bobby has not done astonishingly well.

 

[Cobwebcat]

OK when people have stopped hugging each other I'll apologise.

My trouble is that I'm a stats geek and part-time Footall statitician. I don't trust my own perceptions let alone others.

Forums are for debate and I make a rod for my own back because I should know that people believe what they like even in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary.

Certain things can be, and have been, caluclated by academics and mathematicians. Occassionally I read an opinion that I know not to be true like "teams often play better with ten men" it's not true but lots of people still say it. It makes me more mad than it should ;-)

The most annoying thing to me is posters that really put themselves forward as a cut above in the knowledge steaks and yet are consistently wrong. I'm afraid Didsbury Dave is a prime example...full of self importance but proveably incorrect more times than most. It's not the negativity... I would be the same if he were being positive but still wrong. However it is a lot easier to be negative in my opinion..people like complaining more than they do praising (and that's measureable too!)

You mention you would give Mancini 7/10. I would give him a higher mark because I can see figures showing how good he is but people will generally ignore them because it doesn't fit what they believe.

If we just take Mancini, there are only a handfull of managers better, but there are a few admittedly. Since he's taken over this is what I've seen from people that don't believe we should carry on with him:

"Mancini is not the right appointment he will never win us a trophy"

Mancini wins the FA Cup.

"OK so he won a cup but he didn't get us into the Chamions League we finished 5th"

Mancini gets us into the Champions League

"Yeah but we need to win the Premiership with our funds we've got no chance with Mancini in charge"

Mancini wins the Premiership

The same people are back now saying "Mancini will never do well in Europe he never has"

You can perhaps see my frustration. I'm no happy clapper and City have made lots of errors but appointing Mancini wasn't one of them. If we were to fire him at the moment it would be a mistake and I'd criticise City for it. At the moment I don't think we will so I argue with the people who think we should.

I shouldn't bother though I've only ever changed my own incorrect perceptions with stats never another posters. Football is very emotive, it's the modern day religion, and it doesn't matter how many skulls you show someone if they want to believe God created man and earth in 7 days.

I'll look out for Goo's posts in future. Not because he is being positive but because I can see that many of his points are proveably correct in the same way that many of DD's are nonsense (though he is perfectly entitled to believe them)

Stats are fine, I'm a big fan of them, and they do help to bring ojectivity to the debate aout football but they aren't the whole story. Unfortunately, plenty of supporters do not appreciate their value.

The stats though won't tell you that City should have won the League Cup last year but, IMO, we should have and therefore I have to point to that as one of the reasons I don't think Mancini has done astonishingly well. Stats will tell you that there is a high correlation between a team's wage bill and its levels of success; that is another reason though why Bobby has not done astonishingly well.

There certainly is a link between wages and success but you are wrong that given that relationship Bobby hasn't done astonishingly well. Try the website "pay as you play" Mancini is 3rd all time.

 

[Didsbury Dave]

The most annoying thing to me is posters that really put themselves forward as a cut above in the knowledge steaks )

Oh my life. I didn't read your essay before because all you've spouted in this thread is the usual one-eyed, tub thumping, happy clapping cliched fucking tripe I expect from a vociferous and brainless section of the forum.

But that,my friend, is pretty amusing.

I'll take mine rare please. You'll be a 'well done' man no doubt.

 

[Cobwebcat]

The most annoying thing to me is posters that really put themselves forward as a cut above in the knowledge steaks )

Oh my life. I didn't read your essay before because all you've spouted in this thread is the usual one-eyed, tub thumping, happy clapping cliched fucking tripe I expect from a vociferous and brainless section of the forum.

But that,my friend, is pretty amusing.

I'll take mine rare please. You'll be a 'well done' man no doubt.

Yes yes "stakes" I can see errors in myself would that you could do the same.

You really are king of Twonks. Is Savic still a great defender by the way? If only you had more say eh Dave? Still, keep the observations coming there are plenty who will agree with your "information" while the rest of us can only look on hoping that one day we might see the light. Good luck with that. Goo wins I'm afraid.

 

[Blumooniac]

To the OP- great, measured and well thought out post.

The press want us dead. That's why whenever we lose they label it a crisis. They want to cause panic. They want the rags, Arsenal and even Chelsea to resume, what they consider, the "Status Quo" of English football.

I always find it amusing how Spurs and Everton are fawned upon and revered by the press as "Great Clubs" but not us. If they had our type of investment, I wonder if it would have been viewed so sceptically?

They want anyone to succeed, apart from us. How dare we gatecrash their party?

The Champion's League will take time. I'm prepared to wait.

 

[B\connellblue]

I applaud the effort put in to the OP but let me simplify something. Why the fuck should any supporter thank their lucky stars just because someone else reminds them of how shite we used to be.
Resting on your laurels will ensure you end up back from whence you came. never settle for anything less than first!

 

[Rasher]

My one big worry at the moment forgetting, Mario, playing silly formations, playing people out of position, players not putting a shift in, players not being able to cross the ball, not closing down, defense changing every week, playing 3 at the back and players asking where do you want me, new signings past their sell by date, Micha getting stretchered off, our CL form, our CL away kit.
Is the the price of a small bottle of Fosters £3.50 or £7 a pint now that is worrying.

 

[Anonymous]

My trouble is that I'm a stats geek and part-time Footall statitician. I don't trust my own perceptions let alone others.

Forums are for debate and I make a rod for my own back because I should know that people believe what they like even in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary.

Certain things can be, and have been, caluclated by academics and mathematicians. Occassionally I read an opinion that I know not to be true like "teams often play better with ten men" it's not true but lots of people still say it. It makes me more mad than it should ;-)

The most annoying thing to me is posters that really put themselves forward as a cut above in the knowledge steaks and yet are consistently wrong. I'm afraid Didsbury Dave is a prime example...full of self importance but proveably incorrect more times than most. It's not the negativity... I would be the same if he were being positive but still wrong. However it is a lot easier to be negative in my opinion..people like complaining more than they do praising (and that's measureable too!)

You mention you would give Mancini 7/10. I would give him a higher mark because I can see figures showing how good he is but people will generally ignore them because it doesn't fit what they believe.

If we just take Mancini, there are only a handfull of managers better, but there are a few admittedly. Since he's taken over this is what I've seen from people that don't believe we should carry on with him:

"Mancini is not the right appointment he will never win us a trophy"

Mancini wins the FA Cup.

"OK so he won a cup but he didn't get us into the Chamions League we finished 5th"

Mancini gets us into the Champions League

"Yeah but we need to win the Premiership with our funds we've got no chance with Mancini in charge"

Mancini wins the Premiership

The same people are back now saying "Mancini will never do well in Europe he never has"

You can perhaps see my frustration. I'm no happy clapper and City have made lots of errors but appointing Mancini wasn't one of them. If we were to fire him at the moment it would be a mistake and I'd criticise City for it. At the moment I don't think we will so I argue with the people who think we should.

I shouldn't bother though I've only ever changed my own incorrect perceptions with stats never another posters. Football is very emotive, it's the modern day religion, and it doesn't matter how many skulls you show someone if they want to believe God created man and earth in 7 days.

I'll look out for Goo's posts in future. Not because he is being positive but because I can see that many of his points are proveably correct in the same way that many of DD's are nonsense (though he is perfectly entitled to believe them)

You seem to be holding yourself up as the arbiter of right and wrong simply because your a "a stats geek and part-time Footall statitician". I was going to reply your post bit by bit until i realised it was just a barely disguised attempt to out Dave, Dave, for which it has failed miserably because you simply cannot with a straight face say "The most annoying thing to me is posters that really put themselves forward as a cut above in the knowledge steaks and yet are consistently wrong" when right and wrong in football is wildly subjective.

Before you start bashing me round the head with websites and statistics which somehow "prove" Mancini's abilities, I'll let you know I think he's a top coach who has a fantastic statistical record which will never ever take into account Calciopoli and it's effect on the Serie A.

The absolute key to the "how good is Mancini?" question is whether your asking about him as a coach or him as a manager. As a coach he has proven that he has the qualities to fashion winning teams. As a manager he has proven he has the qualities to piss off and alienate his players. I think you and quite a few others seem to think as long as he does the former, the latter is irrelevant. However my own personal experiences of talking with players or people in and around football is that if you don't have the qualities to man manage your players, your coaching skills won't have the consistent impact required so you have to either constantly change your squad of players, or constantly change clubs.

It's an argument about Mancini that has done the rounds since his very early days at the club. This is incredibly old news now but gives an insight into how little empathy Mancini has for his players. When City played in a Europe a few years ago a certain player's wife was pregnant and due to go into labour the night of the game. The player requested via Mancini's assistant that he be allowed to stay back in the UK. Mancini told him in no uncertain terms that he had to travel, and then proceeded to not even pick the player in the match day squad. The player no longer plays for City not because City wanted to sell him, but because he privately requested and transfer and was granted it.

 

[Zin 'messiah' Zimmer]

Just found some white widow from the Dam trip, get the fuck in!!!!

Those stats in 5 minutes will elevate me to Matt Damon mode in good will hunting, need to find my Gordan wood textbook, how'd you like them apples!!!

 

[Marvin]

I don't care how successful a manager has been. We are the supporters who have sustained the club, and it is our club, so we have every right to criticise. Whether such criticism is right is a separate issue.

I don't think the best manager in the history of the game has ever been perfect. And the most successful manager in the game at the moment has certainly made a lot of mistakes. Even the most vociferous critic of Mancini has not as far as I am aware said he should go. Let us hope that the manager, and club learn from experience, and in the meantime we enjoy one of the best periods of football we are ever likely to experience. We are now taking what we have for granted which is our loss as it means we can't enjoy the football as we should.